The ratings are through all of Tuesday’s (1-19-16) games.
All the normal stuff – plus I added national rank in every skill set. Minimum 141 minutes played, 3127 players ranked in all:
Remember, HnR is an overall seasonal rating – missing games hurts the rating. HnI is the rating for the player when he is actually on the court – missing games does not hurt the rating. HnI is the better predictor, and is what I use when predicting games. 100 is an average D1 player for either rating.
Like I did two weeks ago – if you don’t want to look at the spreadsheet, here are all the top players for each rating:
HnR (POY?): Buddy Hield, Oklahoma 195.1 HnR
HnI (Most Impactful?): Buddy Hield, Oklahoma 194.3 HnI. Two weeks ago this was Denzel Valentine of Michigan State, but since then he has dropped about 11 rating points and is now #2 nationally in HnI.
Top Frosh: Ben Simmons of LSU by a mile – 182.3 & 180.1 HnR/HnI. Has to be the most balanced player in the nation, is at least a +1.8 “Points Added” in 6 of the 7 skill set breakdowns. He is in the top 280 (top 9% of all qualified players) in rank in each of those 6 skill sets.
Top Scorer: Buddy Hield, +16.3 PA (Points Added to average D1 lineup just by scoring rating). He is a full 3.5 points added better than #2, Jaysean Paige of West Virginia
Top producer from 2pt range: Jalen Billups, Northern Kentucky +10.8 PA
Top producer from three: Duncan Robinson, Michigan +11.9 PA
Top producer from the line: James Daniel, Howard +6.3 PA
Top Rebounder: Shevon Thompson, George Mason +8.4 PA
Top Handles/Passer (ie, “true” PG rating): Mike Gesell, Iowa +7.8 PA
Top defensive stops rating (steals, blocks, fouls hurt): Hunter Mickelson, Kansas +5.2 PA
Using a little subjectivity with respect to positions & understanding standard deviations of ratings (+/- 3% or so), here’s how the All American teams look to me thru 1-19-16:
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 195.1 HnR, 194.3 HnI
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 178.4 HnR, 190.3 HnI
Brice Johnson North Carolina 182.5 HnR, 180.8 HnI
Ben Simmons LSU 182.3 HnR, 180.1 HnI
Gary Payton Oregon State 177.6 HnR, 176.1 HnI
Four of the five guys from two weeks ago remain the same – with Gary Payton replacing Kris Dunn.
Jarrod Uthoff Iowa 173.2 HnR, 172.6 HnI
Josh Scott Colorado 172.9 HnR, 172.8 HnI
Kris Dunn Providence 168.1 HnR, 173.5 HnI
AJ Hammons Purdue 169.2 HnR, 172.8 HnI
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 169.5 HnR, 168.9 HnI
Two weeks ago, Paige was not on my three AA teams, but his increased “go to” role and incredible per minute production on a very good WVU team has really impacted his ratings. Dunn dropped to 2nd team from his first team position two weeks ago. Scott was 3rd team two weeks ago, he’s moving on up.
Jameel Warney Stony Brook 170.7 HnR, 169.9 HnI
Egidijus Mockevicius Evansville 168.7 HnR, 168.0 HnI
Caris LeVert Michigan 164.4 HnR, 175.3 HnI
Alec Peters Valparaiso 167.5 HnR, 165.8 HnI
Josh Hart Villanova 166.4 HnR, 166.0 HnI
The Caris LeVert inclusion is based on how good his impact rating is (#6 nationally, ignores his missed games due to injury), if he gets back into the lineup soon his HnR rating should improve quite a bit (currently #19 nationally). Warney was 2nd team two weeks ago, while Mockevivius, Peters, and Hart debut. Kay Felder of Oakland was 2nd team two weeks ago, he has dropped a bit. Pascal Siakam of New Mexico State, Jakob Poeltl of Utah, and Melo Trimble of Maryland were third team two weeks ago.