Future Projects – & a revisit to ol’ > 100 points in a game (twice!) Jack Taylor.

This is actually just a straight copy/paste from a post I just made at the APBRmetrics board in response to the quote below.  Since I’m sure HoopDon isn’t the only guy that feels this way about the ratings he sees here – I figured I should  share my response on the blog.   Plus, I’ve done almost zero writing here for quite a while – I should fill space with more than just WAR rankings.  My rambling in this post gives a good idea on some things I should be tackling in the near future – in addition to the fairly regular NBA WAR player rankings I’ll keep posting & the complete NCAA player rankings that should begin in around 3 weeks – updating weekly I hope.
HoopDon wrote:
HoopNerd, I’ve scrolled through your website and stats multiple times, but I couldn’t find any data on how accurate they were (in terms of correlation to current and future team success), so I ignored them. If your numbers have excellent in-season accuracy, and can predict future performance as well as ASPM/BPM or even (gasp) XRAPM/RPM, I’d use them regularly. If your numbers can do it without using prior-seasons and artificial adjustments (all rookies getting an automatic negative value), I’ll be your #1 fan.More info on how you calculate your numbers will also be appreciated, cheers.http://hoopdon.weebly.com/


Well, stay tuned, I’ll just have to see how comfortable I am about how much I’ll reveal in terms of calculations. I might just, at the very least, project the next season of every single past season (since 1980) in terms of production per minute (adjusted for pace/blah blah blah) – & since we know the actual minutes played of every guy in their following seasons, plug in the projections tied to actual minutes and see how the compiled projected team results compare to actual results. I haven’t done this because, honestly, no one has ever asked until recently about the predictive nature of the results until the last couple of days – & I don’t know how much people trust someone “testing” their own work & giving results. But obviously it’s something I should do & try my best to do a comprehensive write up to show the honesty behind the results.

Now, the problem with this is that there has to be some trust in my testing my own projections. I think if I give ALL results of every player season projection from the previous season (all the good and all the bad) in a massive spreadsheet – then it’ll be pretty obvious that I’m trying to show full disclosure and not fudging things on the fly. There will be a ton of hits from player to player, but obviously a bunch of misses too. It’ll be interesting to see how close, in general, the projections are & where the standard deviations fall.

Similarly – I plan on projecting the NBA careers EVERY SINGLE D1 player since 1997 & ranking them all in terms of their NBA career projections. I’ll limit the posted results to just guys that project, at some point in a made up NBA career, to be above replacement level. This is a huge project (getting all the DoB’s for all guys that could project above replacement level in a NBA career might be a serious pain – since a good number might not ever appear on basketball-reference) – since I’m not going to try to do what it appears everyone else does & limit my scope to the 80 or so college guys on NBA draft radars (often just for simplicity, but sometimes masking the flaws of their own metric) – but EVERY guy. How much can my methodology be trusted if I pick & choose which college players I apply it to. A good methodology should give solid predictive results on any & every player. If I limit my data set to avoid players (say Javon McCrea last year – I noticed a couple draft projection metrics ignore him, I’m guessing possibly because he measured out too high) who might break the system, then what’s the point? I want to catch that undrafted guy – the Udonis Haslem & the like.

The good thing is, when I finish the above project, I’ll be able to rank every college prospect for every past season – & see if my rankings (without ANY scout, combine, or prospect rank bias) compare to the actual drafts. Since I did already do the college ratings of the last season of every guy that played at least 1 minute the following season as an NBA rookie (in order to create the conversions) – I am pretty confident the projections could very well out perform the actual draft positions. Most “busts” (occasional caveats – Beasley for example projected great) were obvious bust material by the projections. Most sleepers (2nd round studs – Boozer, Blair, etc) were very highly projected – MUCH higher than many of the guys drafted before them (Jarnell Stokes in this last draft would be a comp to those two btw). I can’t get them all right by any means (Bledsoe) – I just think I can do better than the general draft history of the past gms. I wanted to do all this before this last draft – never got anywhere close. Just producing college ratings for every single guy that played in the NBA as a rookie was majorly time consuming (I have to compile all the college ratings at the team level for all those guys). I will have all this done well before the next NBA draft – come hell or high water.

Also, another good thing about the draft project – I could run similarity scores with all past college players since ’97 – see which players who appear most similar to guys that succeeded in the NBA. I could run similarity scores of every projected NBA season to all NBA seasons at every age group since 1980, see if certain player types are being overlooked. This might be a 2nd approach I may eventually merge with the first if it improves the predictability. Have zero idea if I’ll have this fully workable by the next NBA draft. If I were working for a team, it would be because all other projects would probably be back burnered.

So, to answer your point before I went off on a massive tangent, yes HoopDon – I should run all the past projections and show how much they correlate to actual results, & post all the results. I’ll post on this board & on Twitter when I do if you are curious about the results.

If you are curious about how to apply the predictive power of the player ratings (if you trusted them at all) – scroll back to any of my numerous March madness game write ups. I predict the final score of in each write up based on predicted player minutes. Here’s the write up I did for the NCAA championship game:

http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=424

Note that my general team ratings going into that game had Kentucky winning by 1.1 points. But, when I compiled the optimized lineup player ratings, & with Kentucky without Cauley-Stein – my prediction came out to UConn by 1.3. I surmised going into that game that losing Cauley-Stein cost UK, theoretically, 2.1 points.

Hey – I forgot that I attempted to quantify how good Jack Taylor (the guys that scored over 100 points twice in a college game) really was relative to an average D1 player. I think some of my methodology & how it adjusts for team & pace (that is an EXTREME team in terms of pace) is made a little more evident there. I never saw anyone even dare to try to quantify his play. I noticed this because it was the article before the NCAA championship game. Good times:

http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=415

Dan

Complete NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through yesterday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI) for your pleasure.  Fully sortable:

12-8-14NBAPlayerRankings

For quick reference, the Top 30:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 James Harden 25 HOU 20 36.9 25.2 6.3 6.6 1.9 1.2 4.4 0.566 25.08
2 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 19 32.8 23.2 5.1 7.7 1.9 0.2 3.2 0.625 22.42
3 Chris Paul 29 LAC 19 34.2 17.9 4.2 9.8 1.9 0.3 1.5 0.630 20.70
4 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 19 36.3 25.2 10.7 1.7 2.1 2.9 1.4 0.609 20.39
5 Damian Lillard 24 POR 20 34.8 19.9 5.1 6.3 1.5 0.2 2.6 0.593 17.78
6 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 20 34.5 20.7 4.9 6.9 1.3 0.2 1.8 0.555 16.93
7 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 20 34.4 19.0 8.1 3.7 1.0 1.6 2.6 0.565 16.86
8 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 19 35.2 22.3 9.9 2.2 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.510 16.04
9 LeBron James 30 CLE 18 38.1 24.6 5.8 7.9 1.4 0.6 3.9 0.556 16.04
10 John Wall 24 WAS 19 35.3 17.6 4.7 10.0 2.2 0.7 3.8 0.505 15.64
11 Kyrie Irving 22 CLE 18 38.0 22.0 3.4 4.8 1.7 0.5 1.7 0.602 14.51
12 Mike Conley 27 MEM 20 32.2 16.7 2.8 6.3 1.2 0.1 2.2 0.567 13.31
13 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 18 39.9 21.7 5.6 3.4 1.5 0.3 1.7 0.585 12.93
14 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 18 33.3 21.2 3.8 3.5 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.570 12.80
15 Paul Millsap 29 ATL 19 34.1 17.1 7.7 3.2 2.4 0.9 2.4 0.552 12.72
16 Blake Griffin 25 LAC 19 33.7 22.9 7.5 4.0 0.6 0.3 2.3 0.540 12.60
17 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 15 32.0 23.5 12.6 2.4 1.1 1.5 3.7 0.571 12.26
18 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 20 35.3 21.3 8.4 2.3 1.1 0.8 2.4 0.550 12.11
19 Tyson Chandler 32 DAL 22 29.5 11.3 11.9 1.3 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.705 12.07
20 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 20 30.9 15.6 11.0 1.4 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.512 12.07
21 Jeff Teague 26 ATL 19 31.3 17.3 2.4 7.1 1.5 0.4 3.2 0.585 11.82
22 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 18 29.9 13.9 10.3 3.1 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.519 11.58
23 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 17 35.9 20.1 11.9 2.1 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.524 11.25
24 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 22 32.1 17.6 4.7 5.8 1.5 0.1 3.3 0.570 10.96
25 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 18 36.4 21.1 6.3 4.5 1.0 0.4 2.7 0.553 10.51
26 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 19 30.5 13.5 8.8 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.560 9.92
27 Kawhi Leonard 23 SAS 19 31.7 14.7 7.6 2.2 1.8 0.5 1.6 0.535 9.73
28 Deron Williams 30 BRK 18 36.6 17.3 3.5 6.2 1.2 0.4 2.7 0.561 9.70
29 Ty Lawson 27 DEN 19 36.5 15.8 3.2 10.3 1.5 0.1 3.0 0.497 9.61
30 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 19 35.4 18.6 11.7 2.0 0.7 1.1 2.7 0.536 9.49
Dan

Cyber Monday NBA Player Rankings by WAR – for FREE!

Best deal on the internet – the rankings are always free!

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through yesterday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI) for your pleasure.  Fully sortable:

12-2-14NBAPlayerRankings

Quick reference – Top 30:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 James Harden 25 HOU 17 37.3 25.2 6.2 6.8 1.9 1.1 4.1 0.562 25.37
2 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 16 32.4 23.8 5.3 7.8 1.9 0.2 3.3 0.637 23.50
3 Chris Paul 29 LAC 17 34.8 17.9 4.0 9.5 2.1 0.4 1.5 0.617 20.93
4 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 17 35.0 20.1 8.1 3.6 1.2 1.5 2.7 0.577 20.35
5 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 15 36.5 24.9 11.3 1.7 2.1 3.0 1.5 0.597 19.32
6 Damian Lillard 24 POR 17 34.9 19.9 5.0 6.8 1.5 0.2 2.8 0.607 17.31
7 John Wall 24 WAS 16 35.3 18.1 4.4 9.3 2.3 0.5 3.6 0.508 16.62
8 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 17 33.8 19.2 5.2 6.6 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.542 15.47
9 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 17 32.1 16.3 11.7 1.5 1.2 0.1 1.8 0.515 14.71
10 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 15 39.3 21.9 5.7 3.1 1.5 0.4 1.7 0.598 14.55
11 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 15 32.0 23.5 12.6 2.4 1.1 1.5 3.7 0.571 14.32
12 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 16 34.9 21.4 9.6 2.3 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.510 14.17
13 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 17 34.9 21.5 8.8 2.4 0.9 0.8 2.4 0.549 14.10
14 LeBron James 30 CLE 15 37.4 24.9 5.8 7.2 1.3 0.7 3.7 0.564 14.00
15 Mike Conley 27 MEM 17 32.4 16.3 3.1 6.4 1.1 0.1 2.1 0.543 13.67
16 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 19 35.4 18.6 11.7 2.0 0.7 1.1 2.7 0.536 11.81
17 Blake Griffin 25 LAC 17 34.2 22.6 7.5 3.8 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.530 11.80
18 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 15 29.9 14.0 9.9 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.536 11.68
19 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 15 32.9 20.9 3.6 3.2 1.3 0.7 2.2 0.570 11.68
20 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 14 34.9 19.4 11.0 2.0 0.6 2.1 2.1 0.530 11.57
21 Tyson Chandler 32 DAL 18 29.0 11.3 11.3 1.3 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.705 11.43
22 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 18 32.7 17.0 4.7 5.9 1.3 0.1 3.3 0.553 11.33
23 Kyrie Irving 22 CLE 15 37.4 21.1 3.5 4.8 1.7 0.5 1.7 0.586 11.21
24 Kawhi Leonard 23 SAS 16 31.6 15.1 7.7 2.1 1.9 0.6 1.7 0.553 10.93
25 Paul Millsap 29 ATL 15 34.5 16.7 8.2 2.9 2.3 0.9 2.4 0.540 10.69
26 Jeff Teague 26 ATL 15 32.1 18.0 2.3 7.2 1.3 0.5 3.3 0.577 10.46
27 Ty Lawson 27 DEN 16 35.8 16.2 2.9 10.1 1.4 0.1 3.1 0.501 10.44
28 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 16 30.9 13.4 8.9 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.560 10.41
29 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 17 28.6 19.4 5.7 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.587 10.15
30 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 15 36.3 21.1 6.5 4.0 1.1 0.4 2.8 0.553 9.74
Dan

Thanksgiving NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through yesterday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-27-14NBAPlayerRankings

The Top 30 for quick reference:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 James Harden 25 HOU 15 37.2 25.3 6.4 6.7 1.8 1.1 4.0 0.548 25.53
2 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 14 32.8 24.2 5.5 7.7 2.1 0.1 3.4 0.643 23.31
3 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 13 36.7 25.4 11.2 1.8 2.1 3.4 1.2 0.602 21.81
4 Chris Paul 29 LAC 14 35.6 18.9 4.4 9.7 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.619 21.74
5 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 15 35.3 19.8 8.3 3.1 1.3 1.6 2.7 0.567 19.55
6 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 15 32.0 23.5 12.6 2.4 1.1 1.5 3.7 0.571 17.83
7 Damian Lillard 24 POR 15 34.8 20.1 5.3 6.5 1.3 0.1 3.0 0.623 17.71
8 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 15 33.5 18.1 5.1 6.6 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.561 17.05
9 John Wall 24 WAS 14 35.6 18.6 4.4 9.2 2.3 0.5 3.8 0.506 16.10
10 LeBron James 30 CLE 14 37.9 25.3 6.1 7.2 1.4 0.7 3.8 0.568 14.16
11 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 14 34.8 21.2 9.1 2.4 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.505 14.14
12 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 15 31.9 16.1 11.6 1.4 1.0 0.1 1.9 0.518 14.08
13 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 13 39.2 21.6 6.1 3.2 1.6 0.5 1.8 0.597 13.82
14 Mike Conley 27 MEM 15 32.1 16.4 2.6 6.2 1.2 0.1 2.1 0.550 13.80
15 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 16 33.3 18.0 4.9 6.2 1.4 0.1 3.5 0.555 13.28
16 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 15 35.1 21.7 8.8 2.4 1.0 0.7 2.3 0.549 12.98
17 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 13 30.1 13.7 10.2 2.7 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.536 12.23
18 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 13 32.6 21.7 3.5 3.2 1.2 0.8 2.2 0.585 12.12
19 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 17 35.5 18.8 12.2 2.2 0.7 0.9 2.7 0.541 11.57
20 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 16 28.4 19.7 5.6 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.605 10.81
21 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 12 35.2 19.3 10.5 2.2 0.7 2.3 2.1 0.529 10.74
22 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 10 33.5 18.8 11.3 1.3 0.8 2.3 3.3 0.545 10.53
23 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 13 36.7 21.1 6.5 3.8 1.1 0.5 2.8 0.550 10.23
24 Darren Collison 27 SAC 12 35.3 15.9 3.5 7.0 1.6 0.4 1.9 0.547 10.17
25 Kyrie Irving 22 CLE 14 37.5 20.9 3.1 4.8 1.8 0.3 1.8 0.583 10.14
26 Ty Lawson 27 DEN 14 36.1 16.6 2.8 10.0 1.4 0.1 3.2 0.511 10.09
27 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 15 34.5 20.7 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.1 2.0 0.495 9.89
28 Tyson Chandler 32 DAL 16 28.4 10.8 11.3 1.3 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.696 9.84
29 Jeff Teague 26 ATL 13 32.7 18.3 2.2 7.0 1.5 0.5 3.2 0.571 9.82
30 Deron Williams 30 BRK 14 37.6 18.4 3.8 6.6 1.4 0.5 3.1 0.572 9.80
Dan

Updated NBA Player Rankings

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through Sunday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-21-14NBAPlayerRankings

The Top 30 for quick reference:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 10 36.7 25.5 11.4 2.0 2.3 3.9 1.0 0.607 23.66
2 James Harden 25 HOU 12 37.0 23.8 6.3 6.9 1.7 1.0 4.2 0.544 21.56
3 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 10 33.5 24.8 5.5 7.7 2.3 0.0 3.9 0.625 21.17
4 Chris Paul 29 LAC 11 35.5 18.0 4.5 9.9 2.1 0.5 1.5 0.588 19.80
5 Damian Lillard 24 POR 11 35.1 20.9 5.1 6.6 1.0 0.2 2.9 0.622 16.51
6 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 11 33.5 18.3 4.6 5.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.571 16.46
7 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 12 35.8 18.0 7.8 3.3 1.4 1.5 2.7 0.536 16.19
8 John Wall 24 WAS 10 35.5 18.6 4.1 9.3 2.3 0.6 3.3 0.487 16.12
9 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 12 32.8 16.6 11.8 1.3 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.506 14.96
10 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 12 30.8 22.5 11.8 1.9 1.1 1.4 3.3 0.557 14.79
11 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 10 40.0 21.5 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.6 1.8 0.607 14.74
12 LeBron James 30 CLE 10 38.6 25.9 6.6 6.8 1.1 0.8 4.0 0.567 13.64
13 Mike Conley 27 MEM 12 33.1 17.1 2.5 5.9 1.4 0.2 2.1 0.534 13.45
14 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 9 33.2 23.6 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.9 2.6 0.613 12.96
15 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 12 33.9 17.9 5.6 6.8 1.3 0.1 3.8 0.535 12.82
16 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 10 33.5 18.8 11.3 1.3 0.8 2.3 3.3 0.545 12.61
17 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 10 35.3 21.9 8.0 2.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.520 12.26
18 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 12 36.8 21.7 6.6 3.6 1.1 0.5 2.8 0.552 12.11
19 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 12 34.9 20.6 8.6 2.8 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.531 11.72
20 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 11 34.4 21.2 4.3 2.6 1.9 0.1 1.6 0.499 11.59
21 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 13 36.3 18.8 11.9 2.6 0.8 1.1 3.1 0.561 11.45
22 Courtney Lee 29 MEM 9 32.9 14.9 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.705 11.35
23 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 12 27.5 19.1 5.3 2.3 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.629 11.18
24 Kyrie Irving 22 CLE 10 38.3 21.9 3.2 5.0 1.6 0.2 1.8 0.590 11.09
25 Darren Collison 27 SAC 11 35.5 15.6 3.6 7.0 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.533 11.08
26 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 10 34.8 18.6 10.6 1.9 0.4 2.5 2.1 0.530 10.93
27 Tyson Chandler 32 DAL 12 27.8 10.9 10.8 1.3 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.708 10.82
28 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 10 30.9 14.5 10.7 2.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 0.509 10.68
29 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 10 31.2 13.7 8.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.581 10.53
30 Gordon Hayward 24 UTA 12 34.6 18.7 5.4 4.6 1.3 0.3 2.1 0.591 10.46
Dan

Updated NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through Sunday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-19-14NBAPlayerRankings

Since everyone asks, Kobe & his 27.4 pts/g on 48.6% TS is currently ranked 108th in the NBA in WAR.

The Top 30:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 10 36.7 25.5 11.4 2.0 2.3 3.9 1.0 0.607 23.61
2 James Harden 25 HOU 11 36.9 23.7 6.5 6.9 1.7 1.0 4.0 0.530 22.71
3 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 10 33.5 24.8 5.6 7.7 2.3 0.0 3.9 0.625 21.27
4 John Wall 24 WAS 9 35.6 19.4 3.9 9.1 2.3 0.4 3.3 0.506 19.23
5 Chris Paul 29 LAC 9 36.3 17.3 4.8 9.8 2.2 0.6 1.4 0.563 17.86
6 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 11 35.3 17.6 7.4 3.3 1.4 1.5 2.6 0.537 16.56
7 Damian Lillard 24 POR 11 35.1 20.9 5.1 6.6 1.0 0.2 2.9 0.622 16.55
8 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 10 33.2 18.3 4.8 5.8 1.2 0.1 1.7 0.575 16.14
9 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 11 32.4 16.5 11.2 1.5 1.1 0.1 1.5 0.513 15.83
10 LeBron James 30 CLE 9 39.1 27.1 6.7 6.6 1.1 0.8 3.9 0.578 15.82
11 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 9 40.3 21.3 6.2 3.9 1.4 0.7 1.7 0.608 15.25
12 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 10 33.5 18.8 11.3 1.3 0.8 2.3 3.3 0.545 14.51
13 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 11 30.5 22.5 11.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 3.2 0.561 14.51
14 Mike Conley 27 MEM 11 32.2 16.9 1.8 6.0 1.5 0.2 2.1 0.538 14.44
15 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 11 32.5 17.9 5.8 6.6 1.3 0.1 3.7 0.553 13.38
16 Courtney Lee 29 MEM 9 32.9 14.9 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.705 13.25
17 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 9 33.2 23.6 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.9 2.6 0.613 12.95
18 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 10 34.8 18.6 10.6 1.9 0.4 2.5 2.1 0.530 12.41
19 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 10 35.3 21.9 8.0 2.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.520 12.23
20 Kyrie Irving 22 CLE 9 38.4 22.1 3.1 5.3 1.4 0.2 1.8 0.591 12.14
21 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 9 31.3 13.3 9.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.577 11.69
22 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 12 36.8 18.8 11.8 2.7 0.8 1.2 3.1 0.558 11.67
23 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 11 36.9 21.8 6.5 3.6 1.2 0.5 2.8 0.541 11.53
24 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 11 35.3 19.9 8.7 2.9 1.4 0.7 2.3 0.519 11.46
25 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 10 34.0 21.2 4.2 2.5 1.9 0.1 1.7 0.504 11.38
26 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 11 27.5 19.6 5.4 2.3 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.639 11.12
27 Trevor Ariza 29 HOU 11 35.4 14.6 5.6 2.5 1.8 0.0 1.8 0.579 11.05
28 Gordon Hayward 24 UTA 12 34.6 18.7 5.4 4.6 1.3 0.3 2.1 0.591 10.47
29 Tyson Chandler 32 DAL 11 27.3 11.5 10.3 1.4 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.716 10.31
30 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 9 30.6 14.0 10.8 2.3 0.8 1.7 1.8 0.516 10.23
Dan

The Arizona Wildcats vs. Mt. St. Mary’s

First REAL game of the season!  I was looking up the ratings real quick for Mt. St. Mary’s, when I realized I might as well share what data I do have.

Ken Pomeroy has Arizona winning 84-61.  Using the same point totals – based on the quality of these teams LAST season, I come up with a 86-59.

Now, I don’t even try to run player projections on freshmen, and I haven’t yet developed a class base projection system since I still haven’t rated all D1 player back to 1997 to come up with my conversions.  BUT, I do have last season ratings for the returning players for both teams – as well as the ratings for for the Mountaineers two transfers from ’13.  I figure the ratio of talent for the returning players is probably similar to the ratio of talent for the new guys, I could come up with a reasonable estimate on an expected point spread – as well as compare these players I do have ratings for.

So, no Stanley Johnson rated below, Arizona’s super frosh.  No Dusan Ristic, Craig Victor, or Parker Jackson-Cartwright either for that matter.  No Mt. St. Mary’s frosh.  But, here are the rest, ranked by last season’s HnI (ignores games missed due to injury or suspension) & followed by the garbage minute guys:

Player Team Min Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnI
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 960 25.3 9.1 5.7 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.538 142
T.J. McConnell Arizona 1225 32.2 8.4 3.6 5.3 1.7 0.2 1.8 0.526 140
Brandon Ashley Arizona 609 27.7 11.5 5.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.588 137
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 1020 28.3 9.9 6.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.625 132
Gabe York Arizona 828 21.8 6.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.518 124
Matt Korcheck Arizona 102 4.6 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.667 119
Taylor Danaher MSMU 788 23.9 7.1 5.0 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.659 91
Kristijan Krajina MSMU 117 16.7 5.7 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.606 90
Gregory Graves MSMU 717 21.7 6.5 5.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.536 89
Elliott Pitts Arizona 201 8.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.564 86
Byron Ashe MSMU 684 22.1 7.0 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.520 81
Will Miller MSMU 518 15.7 5.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.587 80
Khalid Nwandu MSMU 453 15.1 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.4 0.468 61
Chris Martin MSMU 347 15.1 3.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.3 0.375 51
Jacob Hazzard Arizona 29 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.588 138
Trey Mason Arizona 22 2.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.833 103
Drew Mellon Arizona 12 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.250 56
Aaron Brown MSMU 30 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.522 49
Liam McManimon MSMU 62 4.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.273 34
Andy Smeathers MSMU 48 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.352 24
Maalik Howard MSMU 56 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 - 5

Not surprisingly, all the top rated players are Wildcats.  MSMU lost it’s two best players last season, so their best returning players rated almost 10% worst than the average D1 player last year.

The rest of the way here I’ll only deal with non garbage time guys. I’ll keep Korcheck in here for fun, at least he reached triple digits in total minutes.  Here are players with their ratings broken down:

Player Team Min Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df HnI
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 960 75 46 29 0 49 7 18 142
T.J. McConnell Arizona 1225 53 28 6 18 21 50 20 140
Brandon Ashley Arizona 609 96 57 27 12 44 -9 8 137
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 1020 86 58 29 0 47 -17 5 132
Gabe York Arizona 828 61 3 11 47 20 22 5 124
Matt Korcheck Arizona 102 61 41 20 0 63 -15 9 119
Taylor Danaher MSMU 788 58 38 19 0 34 -10 12 91
Kristijan Krajina MSMU 117 61 48 6 7 39 -5 -4 90
Gregory Graves MSMU 717 46 25 18 3 41 -6 9 89
Elliott Pitts Arizona 201 48 9 1 38 25 1 -1 86
Byron Ashe MSMU 684 47 7 7 33 15 2 4 81
Will Miller MSMU 518 62 0 5 56 13 3 -3 80
Khalid Nwandu MSMU 453 20 7 12 2 16 -3 8 61
Chris Martin MSMU 347 14 -1 3 12 9 -9 10 51

Ashley, Tarczewski, and Hollis-Jefferson stand out as the top scorers of this group.  They have the top ratings from 2pt range as well as from the line.

MSMU’s Will Miller is their three point specialist.  Byron Ashe is three capable.  York and Pitts of Arizona fall in between the two in terms of 3pt rating,

The top 5 rebounders in terms of rating are all Wildcats.  The Mountaineers better have some active frosh bigs if they want to keep up on the boards.

Obviously the Mountaineers will be running a frosh point guard out there – because none of their guys I list above are points.  McConnell might dominate this game.

In terms of defensive stops – McConnell and Hollis-Jefferson create the most havoc.

If I were to take the ratings across the board, weighted by last season’s minutes – here’s what we get:

Team Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df HnI
Arizona 70.8 36.4 18.4 16.0 35.4 12.5 11.5 132.9
MSMU 43.6 16.6 11.5 15.5 23.7 -4.3 6.4 76.8

Based on the returning players, Arizona should completely dominate in the paint offensively, dominate at the line, dominate on the boards.  Arizona should create more steals and block more shots.  I know, tell you something you didn’t know – but I’m just confirming it with the numbers.

NMSU needs to be hot from three point range.  They need their frosh who is at point to not get completely overrun by McConnell on either end.  They need their frosh bigs to bang and rebound.  Maybe, then, they can keep the game under a 20 point spread in the end.

Based on the returning players and using their ratings from last season – I would project a final score of 92-53.  I don’t think it’ll be THAT bad, I expect the MSMU frosh to contribute a bit more relative to their team than the Arizona frosh will (they better) – even with Stanimal playing his first game as a Wildcat.

Beardown!

Dan

Updated NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through Sunday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-13-14NBAPlayerRankings

The Top 30:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 7 37.3 24.9 12.9 2.0 2.3 4.4 1.4 0.582 23.90
2 James Harden 25 HOU 8 36.9 25.1 6.4 7.5 1.6 1.0 4.0 0.551 23.05
3 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 7 35.0 26.0 6.3 6.9 3.0 0.0 4.6 0.613 22.28
4 John Wall 24 WAS 8 35.9 20.0 3.8 9.0 2.6 0.4 3.4 0.518 20.28
5 Chris Paul 29 LAC 7 36.3 16.0 5.3 10.3 2.4 0.6 1.3 0.511 17.91
6 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 8 36.0 17.8 7.5 3.5 1.3 1.5 3.0 0.548 17.50
7 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 8 33.1 18.0 4.6 5.8 1.4 0.1 1.6 0.581 17.42
8 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 8 32.4 16.6 10.8 1.1 1.3 0.1 1.8 0.552 16.92
9 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 8 35.4 21.8 9.3 3.0 1.4 0.3 2.3 0.561 16.16
10 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 8 30.4 22.1 11.1 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.1 0.564 15.58
11 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 7 32.3 20.0 11.3 1.4 0.9 2.1 2.7 0.588 15.47
12 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 8 36.4 22.8 7.3 3.4 1.3 0.5 3.1 0.571 14.98
13 LeBron James 30 CLE 6 40.3 24.8 6.8 6.7 1.7 0.5 4.2 0.548 14.34
14 Damian Lillard 24 POR 9 34.7 19.8 5.2 6.2 1.0 0.2 2.7 0.616 13.87
15 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 8 34.9 18.4 11.1 2.0 0.4 2.4 2.4 0.535 13.81
16 Dwyane Wade 33 MIA 8 32.4 19.8 3.5 6.4 1.3 0.6 2.9 0.551 13.51
17 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 8 33.8 21.9 4.8 2.6 2.1 0.1 2.1 0.513 13.43
18 Courtney Lee 29 MEM 6 33.2 15.2 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.3 1.0 0.689 12.81
19 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 6 34.5 24.7 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.7 2.8 0.619 12.27
20 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 8 32.1 17.4 6.1 6.9 1.4 0.1 4.0 0.541 12.16
21 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 8 29.3 20.9 6.0 2.4 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.625 11.96
22 Trevor Ariza 29 HOU 8 34.6 15.1 5.8 2.6 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.630 11.95
23 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 8 31.9 14.0 9.4 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.589 11.80
24 Mike Conley 27 MEM 8 32.4 15.9 1.9 5.6 1.6 0.3 2.3 0.500 11.75
25 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 6 39.5 19.5 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 1.7 0.597 11.69
26 LaMarcus Aldridge 29 POR 9 35.1 21.9 7.9 2.2 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.517 11.59
27 Isaiah Thomas 25 PHO 8 24.3 17.4 2.3 4.1 0.8 0.0 1.6 0.591 11.03
28 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 9 37.1 18.7 11.9 2.8 1.0 1.2 3.2 0.542 10.60
29 Tim Duncan 38 SAS 6 33.2 14.7 11.5 2.5 1.0 1.7 1.8 0.489 10.48
30 Kyle Korver 33 ATL 7 36.6 16.7 4.7 2.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.701 10.38
Dan

Updated NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through Sunday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-10-14NBAPlayerRankings
Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 6 34.8 27.7 6.3 7.2 3.5 0.0 4.8 0.641 28.57
2 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 5 37.0 24.4 12.8 1.8 2.2 4.4 1.4 0.562 24.59
3 James Harden 25 HOU 7 36.4 25.4 6.7 7.1 1.4 1.1 4.4 0.567 23.10
4 Chris Paul 29 LAC 6 36.0 16.7 4.5 10.5 2.7 0.7 0.8 0.518 22.08
5 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 7 35.7 23.6 10.3 3.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 0.587 19.97
6 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 7 36.4 19.1 7.4 2.7 1.4 1.7 3.1 0.565 18.57
7 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 7 32.7 17.4 10.9 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.9 0.562 18.43
8 John Wall 24 WAS 7 35.7 19.0 3.9 8.7 2.6 0.3 3.7 0.522 18.40
9 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 7 30.4 23.0 11.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.9 0.563 18.11
10 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 7 32.6 17.9 4.4 5.6 1.1 0.1 1.4 0.584 16.08
11 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 7 36.0 22.3 7.1 2.7 1.1 0.6 2.6 0.561 15.24
12 Dwyane Wade 33 MIA 7 32.1 19.7 3.4 6.9 1.3 0.6 3.1 0.556 14.36
13 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 6 32.0 19.7 11.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 3.2 0.587 14.05
14 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 7 33.9 22.7 4.9 2.4 2.3 0.1 2.4 0.526 13.95
15 Courtney Lee 29 MEM 5 32.2 15.2 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.710 12.85
16 Deron Williams 30 BRK 6 38.2 19.5 2.5 7.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 0.579 12.41
17 Al Jefferson 30 CHO 7 35.7 22.7 7.4 1.7 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.500 11.93
18 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 7 31.9 17.6 6.4 7.3 1.4 0.1 3.7 0.552 11.89
19 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 7 34.9 18.6 10.6 1.7 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.544 11.86
20 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 5 33.4 23.8 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.8 2.6 0.598 11.82
21 Darren Collison 27 SAC 7 34.7 14.7 4.0 6.3 2.0 0.4 1.7 0.493 11.79
22 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 5 38.8 19.6 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.8 1.8 0.580 11.60
23 Trevor Ariza 29 HOU 7 34.7 14.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.614 11.41
24 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 7 32.7 14.0 8.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.598 11.21
25 Gordon Hayward 24 UTA 7 35.6 17.9 6.0 5.1 1.0 0.3 2.1 0.607 11.16
26 Mike Conley 27 MEM 7 32.0 14.9 2.0 6.0 1.4 0.3 2.0 0.484 11.05
27 Joe Johnson 33 BRK 6 32.7 19.8 5.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 1.8 0.564 10.95
28 Nikola Vucevic 24 ORL 7 36.3 18.6 12.3 2.4 1.0 1.1 2.9 0.544 10.77
29 LeBron James 30 CLE 5 40.4 23.4 6.0 6.0 1.8 0.4 4.2 0.529 10.68
30 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 7 28.6 20.6 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.4 1.4 0.613 10.52
Dan

Updated NBA Player Rankings by WAR

Every player in the NBA ranked by Wins Above Replacement through Saturday’s games – other ratings included (WAR/48, HnR, & HnI).  Fully sortable:

11-9-14NBAPlayerRankings

The Top 30:

Rank Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% ProWAR
1 Stephen Curry 26 GSW 5 35.0 27.6 7.2 6.6 3.2 0.0 3.8 0.642 31.72
2 Anthony Davis 21 NOP 5 37.0 24.4 12.8 1.8 2.2 4.4 1.4 0.562 24.55
3 James Harden 25 HOU 7 36.4 25.4 6.7 7.1 1.4 1.1 4.4 0.567 23.10
4 DeMarcus Cousins 24 SAC 6 29.8 24.2 11.8 1.5 1.0 1.3 3.0 0.578 22.24
5 Chris Paul 29 LAC 6 36.0 16.7 4.5 10.5 2.7 0.7 0.8 0.518 22.09
6 Kyle Lowry 28 TOR 6 34.0 18.5 4.8 6.0 1.2 0.2 1.0 0.584 19.74
7 Chris Bosh 30 MIA 6 35.5 24.2 10.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 2.2 0.580 19.40
8 Marc Gasol 30 MEM 7 36.4 19.1 7.4 2.7 1.4 1.7 3.1 0.565 18.55
9 John Wall 24 WAS 7 35.7 19.0 3.9 8.7 2.6 0.3 3.7 0.522 18.43
10 Zach Randolph 33 MEM 7 32.7 17.4 10.9 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.9 0.562 18.41
11 Rudy Gay 28 SAC 6 35.7 22.2 6.7 2.2 1.0 0.7 2.8 0.564 15.70
12 Darren Collison 27 SAC 6 34.7 15.2 3.8 6.2 2.0 0.5 1.7 0.511 15.25
13 Klay Thompson 24 GSW 5 33.4 23.8 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.8 2.6 0.598 15.24
14 Dwight Howard 29 HOU 6 32.0 19.7 11.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 3.2 0.587 14.03
15 Dwyane Wade 33 MIA 6 31.5 19.7 3.7 6.3 1.3 0.7 3.2 0.562 13.84
16 Al Jefferson 30 CHO 6 36.0 22.7 7.3 1.8 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.511 13.82
17 Courtney Lee 29 MEM 5 32.2 15.2 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.4 1.0 0.710 12.84
18 DeMar DeRozan 25 TOR 6 35.2 22.5 4.7 2.5 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.500 12.63
19 Joe Johnson 33 BRK 5 32.8 21.2 6.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 0.589 12.15
20 Dirk Nowitzki 36 DAL 6 28.3 21.2 5.8 2.2 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.632 11.95
21 Brandon Knight 23 MIL 7 31.9 17.6 6.4 7.3 1.4 0.1 3.7 0.552 11.89
22 Pau Gasol 34 CHI 7 34.9 18.6 10.6 1.7 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.544 11.84
23 Jimmy Butler 25 CHI 5 38.8 19.6 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.8 1.8 0.580 11.61
24 Trevor Ariza 29 HOU 7 34.7 14.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.614 11.42
25 Marcin Gortat 30 WAS 7 32.7 14.0 8.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.598 11.17
26 Mike Conley 27 MEM 7 32.0 14.9 2.0 6.0 1.4 0.3 2.0 0.484 11.08
27 Deron Williams 30 BRK 5 37.6 19.8 2.2 7.0 0.8 0.6 2.6 0.569 10.71
28 LeBron James 30 CLE 5 40.4 23.4 6.0 6.0 1.8 0.4 4.2 0.529 10.70
29 Markieff Morris 25 PHO 6 31.2 17.3 6.5 2.0 1.2 0.8 1.3 0.584 10.43
30 Greg Monroe 24 DET 3 30.7 17.0 12.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 1.7 0.586 9.81
Dan