The very best college basketball player preseason ranking in the universe…

…. because I’m compiling the best work from others, & throwing in my own historical player ratings & rankings. I love this stuff, & in almost all cases compiling the hard work from others will produce a consensus that has a best chance of correlating to future reality. Also, I don’t project freshmen – so I’m forced to include others who (albeit subjectively) do. Here’s the list of sources included, whose rankings will be mixed in with my rankings based on players’ last season HnI rating:

CBS Sports Top 100 (plus 1) – it’s actually 102,  since they mistakenly listed #95 twice.

SB Nation Top 100

NBC Sports Top 100

While I’m here – please check out two other sites if you need MORE of a college basketball fix (particularly one with numbers):

Ken Pomeroy – pretty much THE site to frequently visit as the season progresses. If you are even a wee bit a numbers guy, pay the $20 yearly subscription – it’s worth it.

Luke Winn at SI – with Dan Hanner‘s work they put together quite an impressive amount of preseason college projections (at the team & player level).

So, here’s what I did:

I took each ranking result (from the three sources listed above), and assigned 102 points for a #1 rank (since CBS had 102 players ranked), 101 for #2, all the way down to 3 for #100, 2 for #101, & 1 for #102.

I then found the top 102 returning players based on my ratings from their last college season played. The vast majority are from last season, with a small handful (transfers who sat out last season, & one who who missed last season due to injury) from ’14-15 . Anyway, I ranked my guys based on their last HnI rating, & assigned points just like above.

If a player ranked #1 in ever source, they’d total 408 points (102×4).

Now, I know what you are saying: “HEY, your work, Mr. HoopsNerd, doesn’t include ANY freshmen.” Well, that is very true. My answer – every source everywhere who subjectively ranks college players ALWAYS greatly overrates freshmen. When it’s all said & done, based on actual college performance (not NBA potential) there won’t be 5 freshmen in the final top 10 players nationally (like one source has), & especially not 7 in the final top 11 (as another source has). This is amplified by the fact that many of these freshmen play on the same team together – & there’s just ONE ball to effectively produce with.

There might be, at MOST in a superb freshmen class, two freshmen in the top 10 player rankings by season’s end. Maybe four at most in the top 20.  Feel free to look at my historical final player ratings & rankings if you don’t believe me.

Now, IF you want to read a write up on any or all players I will be ranking – PLEASE visit the player ranking links I listed above, they ALL took time to write up at least a blurb about every player. I don’t have the time, I never do. I’d love for them to get more visitors – their work, in my opinion, deserve more attention than the plethora  of bracketology write ups that happen MONTHS before the actual tourney. But, for some reason the latter gets all the eyes.

Anyway, here is the spreadsheet you can pull up (with last season’s stats & HnI rating)- fully sortable any way you desire (168 players ranked):

2016-17CollegePreasonPlayerRankPOST

For those of you who won’t ever download a spreadsheet – here’s the “Consensus” preseason Top 100 players, with their rank from each source:

RANK Player Team Conf Cla HN SBN CBS NBC Total
1 Grayson Allen Duke ACC JR 6 1 1 2 402
2 Josh Hart Villanova Big East SR 7 4 13 5 383
3 Ivan Rabb California Pac-12 SO 11 3 10 7 381
4 Jaron Blossomgame Clemson ACC SR 8 14 12 13 365
5 Dillon Brooks Oregon Pac-12 JR 35 8 3 11 355
6 Alec Peters Valparaiso Horizon SR 2 17 16 29 348
7 Monte Morris Iowa St. Big 12 SR 48 7 8 4 345
8 Moses Kingsley Arkansas SEC JR 13 25 18 21 335
9 Melo Trimble Maryland Big Ten JR 34 12 14 18 334
10 Thomas Bryant Indiana Big Ten SO 25 29 17 9 332
11 Ethan Happ Wisconsin Big Ten SO 4 39 38 27 304
12 Jawun Evans Oklahoma St. Big 12 SO 14 37 25 34 302
13 Markelle Fultz Washington Pac-12 FR 5 2 1 301
14 Josh Jackson Kansas Big 12 FR 2 4 3 300
15 Frank Mason Kansas Big 12 JR 47 15 36 17 297
16 Jayson Tatum Duke ACC FR 6 5 6 292
17 Malcolm Hill Illinois Big Ten SR 28 33 28 33 290
18 London Perrantes Virginia ACC SR 38 19 39 26 290
19 Harry Giles Duke ACC FR 9 7 8 285
20 Devonte’ Graham Kansas Big 12 JR 54 26 24 25 283
21 Kris Jenkins Villanova Big East SR 19 36 33 46 278
22 Dennis Smith NC State ACC FR 13 9 10 277
23 Jack Gibbs Davidson A-10 SR 16 30 29 62 275
24 Edrice Adebayo Kentucky SEC FR 16 6 16 271
25 James Blackmon Indiana Big Ten JR 5 38 41 57 271
26 Austin Nichols Virginia ACC JR 69 40 21 12 270
27 Trevon Bluiett Xavier Big East JR 43 24 40 37 268
28 D’Aaron Fox Kentucky SEC FR 11 15 20 263
29 Lonzo Ball UCLA Pac-12 FR 10 22 14 263
30 Nigel Williams-Goss Gonzaga WCC JR 72 23 44 15 258
31 Malik Monk Kentucky SEC FR 20 11 22 256
32 Justin Jackson North Carolina ACC JR 58 21 35 43 255
33 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin Big Ten SR 62 18 19 58 255
34 Joel Berry North Carolina ACC JR 44 41 42 32 253
35 Chris Boucher Oregon Pac-12 SR 3 52 55 54 248
36 Edmond Sumner Xavier Big East SO 22 20 19 248
37 Tyler Lydon Syracuse ACC SO 94 27 23 23 245
38 Jordan Woodard Oklahoma Big 12 SR 42 35 61 55 219
39 Miles Bridges Michgan St. Big Ten FR 32 26 35 216
40 Tyler Davis Texas A&M SEC SO 15 73 53 63 208
41 Allonzo Trier Arizona Pac-12 SO 34 31 36 208
42 Dedric Lawson Memphis AAC SO 79 53 47 38 195
43 Bronson Koenig Wisconsin Big Ten SR 28 32 56 193
44 Kelan Martin Butler Big East JR 60 49 63 52 188
45 Tyler Cavanaugh George Washington A-10 SR 32 64 46 83 187
46 Johnathan Motley Baylor Big 12 JR 51 84 50 40 187
47 Peter Jok Iowa Big Ten SR 66 46 43 70 187
48 Dwayne Bacon Florida St. ACC FR 43 30 49 187
49 Maurice Watson Jr. Creighton Big East SR 100 42 45 41 184
50 Jonathan Isaac Florida St. ACC FR 54 34 39 182
51 Michael Young Pittsburgh ACC SR 22 72 58 82 178
52 Carlton Bragg Jr. Kansas Big 12 SO 52 78 62 45 175
53 Jarrett Allen Texas Big 12 FR 55 37 47 170
54 Caleb Swanigan Purdue Big Ten SO 44 51 44 170
55 Marcus Foster Creighton Big East JR 59 52 28 170
56 Donovan Mitchell Louisville ACC SO 31 80 31 167
57 O.G. Anunoby Indiana Big Ten SO 61 57 24 167
58 Elijah Brown New Mexico MWC JR 37 74 59 77 165
59 Andrew White III Syracuse Big East SR 45 62 65 76 164
60 Lauri Markkanen Arizona Pac-12 FR 68 27 51 163
61 E.C. Matthews Rhode Island A-10 JR 47 60 42 160
62 V.J. Beachem Notre Dame ACC SR 51 56 50 152
63 Kennedy Meeks North Carolina ACC SR 26 48 86 149
64 Zach LeDay Virginia Tech ACC SR 12 66 87 144
65 Charles Cooke Dayton A-10 SR 30 65 71 143
66 Gary Clark Cincinnati AAC JR 24 85 70 94 139
67 Kevin Hervey Texas-Arlington Sun Belt JR 17 92 67 133
68 Tyler Dorsey Oregon Pac-12 SO 50 30 126
69 J.J. Frazier Georgia SEC SR 1 81 124
70 Jalen Brunson Villanova Big East SO 57 69 59 124
71 T.J. Cline Richmond A-10 SR 36 71 82 120
72 Xavier Rathan-Mayes Florida St. ACC JR 48 68 74 119
73 Jordan McLaughlin USC Pac-12 JR 85 67 90 53 117
74 Yante Maten Georgia SEC JR 20 93 80 116
75 Jalen Adams Connecticut AAC SO 58 64 71 116
76 Deng Adel Louisville ACC SO 45 48 113
77 Jaylen Adams St. Bonaventure A-10 JR 57 56 92 104
78 Mikal Bridges Villanova Big East SO 71 75 61 102
79 Amile Jefferson Duke ACC SR 18 87 101
80 Shake Milton SMU AAC SO 63 85 60 101
81 Mike Daum South Dakota St. Summit SO 9 97 100
82 Isaiah Hicks North Carolina ACC SR 27 80 99
83 Eron Harris Michigan St. Big Ten SR 60 49 97
84 Isaac Hamilton UCLA Pac-12 SR 81 54 78 96
85 Marcus Marshall Nevada MWC SR 10 93
86 Quinndary Weatherspoon Mississippi St. SEC SO 66 87 65 91
87 Justin Robinson Monmouth MAAC SR 21 95 90
88 Antonio Campbell Ohio MAC SR 29 88 89
89 Isaac Haas Purdue Big Ten JR 23 98 85
90 Dane Pineau Saint Mary’s WCC SR 31 72
91 Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina SEC SR 70 64 72
92 Desi Rodriguez Seton Hall Big East JR 33 70
93 Emmett Naar Saint Mary’s WCC JR 65 100 86 93 68
94 Chris Flemmings UNC Wilmington CAA SR 50 89 67
95 Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina St. ACC JR 91 78 73 67
96 Antonio Blakeney LSU SEC SO 69 72 65
97 Omer Yurtseven North Carolina St. ACC FR 76 66 64
98 Landen Lucas Kansas Big 12 SR 39 64
99 Josh Hawkinson Washington St. Pac-12 SR 41 101 64
100 Isaiah Johnson Akron MAC SR 40 63

The spreadsheet has all 168 players, but posting 100 here probably is too much.

The Hoops Nerd ranking:

All are easily sortable in the spreadsheet – but here’s the 11 that had the highest ratings their last season played:

Player Team G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnI Year
J.J. Frazier Georgia 34 32.1 16.9 4.5 4.4 1.4 0.1 1.6 0.562 164.0 15-16
Alec Peters Valparaiso 37 32.1 18.4 8.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.646 160.2 15-16
Chris Boucher Oregon 38 25.8 12.1 7.4 0.4 0.8 2.9 1.1 0.621 158.5 15-16
Ethan Happ Wisconsin 35 28.1 12.4 7.9 1.3 1.8 0.9 2.2 0.561 156.9 15-16
James Blackmon Indiana 13 24.5 15.8 4.2 1.7 1.2 0.4 1.9 0.622 156.7 15-16
Grayson Allen Duke 36 36.6 21.6 4.6 3.5 1.3 0.1 2.0 0.610 156.4 15-16
Josh Hart Villanova 40 31.4 15.5 6.8 1.9 1.2 0.3 1.7 0.598 156.3 15-16
Jaron Blossomgame Clemson 31 34.2 18.7 6.6 1.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.608 155.4 15-16
Mike Daum South Dakota St. 34 20.8 15.2 6.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.6 0.649 154.8 15-16
Marcus Marshall Nevada 14 32.6 19.5 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 0.622 153.6 14-15
Ivan Rabb California 34 28.7 12.5 8.5 0.9 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.628 153.1 15-16

Yes, the #1 is JJ Frazier, who was ranked 81st by CBS, & left off the other 2 lists. He was superb last season, and I’m shocked he is so heavily overlooked by so many experts. That being said – if Grayson Allen just matches his production from last season, he will be a strong favorite for POY based on his name recognition & the team he plays for.

I also want to point out Chris Boucher, who is the REAL star at Oregon – while Dillon Brooks gets all the pub. Chris is a poor man’s Anthony Davis – he does EVERYTHING while being an elite rim protector. He even hits threes (something AD didn’t do in college). I’ve watched MANY of his games last season, I love the kid as a player. Maybe I shouldn’t call him a “kid”, he will be 24 in under 2 months. He’s over 6 years older than some freshmen – which I’m sure doesn’t at all hurt his ability to dominate on both ends of the court.

Finally, Mike Daum was almost completely overlooked by the other sites (#97 by CBS, off the other lists). His per minute offensive production as a freshman last season is eye popping. Marcus Marshall wasn’t on a single list, which I’m guessing is mainly because he didn’t even play a full season in ’14-15 – and he transferred from a small school (Missouri State) to one that doesn’t have much of a footprint (Nevada).

Well, that was fun. Feel free to comment below or hit me up on twitter about what you think (about this article, about college basketball, about our place in the universe – whatevs).

Dan

Current NBA Player WAR Rankings

Here you go with ALL the data:

Thru11-6-16NBAPlayerRatings

For those who refuse to ever download or click on anything – here’s 13 guys projecting a final WAR above 15. The above spreadsheet has ALL the gory details – broken down into the minutiae, if you crave more:

WARpace Rk WAR/48 Rk HnI Rk Player Pos Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
38.11 1 54.47 1 185 1 Russell Westbrook PG 28 OKC 6 34.2 33.2 9.0 9.7 1.7 0.5 5.3 0.544
27.46 2 36.27 3 144 11 LeBron James SF 32 CLE 6 36.3 22.8 8.8 10.7 0.7 0.3 3.7 0.552
24.97 3 32.52 6 179 2 James Harden PG 27 HOU 6 36.8 31.5 7.3 12.3 1.5 0.0 4.8 0.647
24.86 4 33.94 5 156 6 Kevin Durant SF 28 GSW 6 35.2 30.0 8.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 2.0 0.684
24.20 5 31.25 8 153 7 DeMar DeRozan SG 27 TOR 6 37.2 33.7 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.579
23.79 6 36.80 2 172 3 Chris Paul PG 31 LAC 6 31.0 18.5 6.0 8.7 3.5 0.3 2.2 0.561
23.59 7 32.12 7 152 8 Damian Lillard PG 26 POR 7 36.3 32.0 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.1 2.9 0.638
23.08 8 35.23 4 164 4 Kawhi Leonard SF 25 SAS 7 31.4 26.4 5.4 3.4 2.4 0.4 1.7 0.615
18.36 9 26.38 10 134 19 Kemba Walker PG 26 CHO 5 33.4 24.4 3.0 4.6 1.4 0.0 2.8 0.595
17.97 10 26.86 9 146 10 Giannis Antetokounmpo SG 22 MIL 7 32.6 21.1 8.4 6.0 1.9 1.9 3.0 0.565
17.07 11 24.22 11 141 14 George Hill PG 30 UTA 7 33.9 20.4 2.9 5.0 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.650
16.51 12 24.13 12 140 16 Blake Griffin PF 27 LAC 6 32.8 20.3 9.7 3.0 1.3 0.5 2.0 0.524
16.05 13 23.70 13 122 29 Kevin Love PF 28 CLE 6 32.5 21.7 8.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.8 0.560

The top 8 – Russ, LeBron, Harden, KD, DeMar, CP3, Damian, & Kawhi – really stand out and up to this point have played like true superstars. Remember, WAR is tied to team wins – so a team that hasn’t won will have a roster with zero WAR. So a guy like Anthony Davis (274th in WAR while 5th in HnI) will jump up the rankings the moment his team garners a win or two.

Here are the top producers at specific statistical skill sets, in terms of Points Added per 100 possessions to an average NBA lineup:

Player Statistical Skill Set PA
Channing Frye 3pt Production 16.3
DeMar DeRozan 2pt Production 15.6
Hassan Whiteside 2pt Production 12.9
Salah Mejri 2pt Production 12.8
Enes Kanter 2pt Production 10.6
Kawhi Leonard Free Throw Production 10.1
Chris Paul Assist-Turnover Production 9.7

Yes, Channing Frye hitting 10 of 19 three pointers in 62 minutes lands him at the top of this list. Not expecting he’ll stay. Steph Curry was a +12.2 last season in terms of his three point production, which was easily the top Points Added of any statistical skill set for the NBA that year. At the moment this season, he is “merely” a +4.1 (39th in the NBA).

Dan

Ranking ALL NBA players by Wins Above Replacement

Here you go, all the data:

Thru11-2-16NBAPlayerRatings

For those who refuse to ever download or click on anything – here’s 14 guys projecting a final WAR above 15. The above spreadsheet has ALL the gory details – broken down into the minutiae, if you crave more:

WARpace Rank WAR/48 Rank HnI Rank Player Age G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
49.78 1 66.32 1 201 1 Russell Westbrook 28 4 37.0 37.8 10.8 10.0 1.5 0.3 6.0 0.543
29.06 2 37.45 4 164 6 DeMar DeRozan 27 4 37.3 36.3 5.3 2.3 1.5 0.0 2.8 0.602
28.11 3 37.48 3 153 7 Kevin Durant 28 4 36.0 28.5 9.0 4.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 0.663
27.35 4 35.71 5 179 2 James Harden 27 5 36.8 31.8 7.0 12.4 1.2 0.0 4.6 0.644
25.49 5 38.02 2 172 3 Kawhi Leonard 25 5 32.2 28.4 4.2 3.8 3.0 0.2 1.8 0.643
23.17 6 30.54 7 140 14 LeBron James 32 4 36.5 20.5 9.5 9.5 0.3 0.5 3.8 0.562
21.56 7 33.09 6 166 4 Chris Paul 31 4 31.3 18.8 6.0 7.8 3.3 0.0 2.8 0.586
20.61 8 27.67 8 140 13 Giannis Antetokounmpo 22 4 35.8 23.3 9.5 5.8 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.564
19.79 9 27.20 9 133 20 Kyrie Irving 24 4 35.0 26.8 3.5 4.0 0.5 0.5 2.8 0.601
18.45 10 25.54 10 131 26 Isaiah Thomas 27 4 34.8 24.3 3.0 7.5 1.8 0.3 3.3 0.606
17.51 11 24.17 12 145 8 George Hill 30 5 34.8 21.4 3.0 4.6 1.0 0.4 1.4 0.656
17.04 12 23.15 15 143 10 Damian Lillard 26 5 36.8 32.6 6.0 4.6 1.0 0.2 3.2 0.608
17.02 13 24.20 11 133 21 Kemba Walker 26 4 33.8 23.0 2.3 5.5 1.8 0.0 2.5 0.601
16.35 14 23.76 13 142 11 Blake Griffin 27 4 33.0 20.0 10.8 3.3 1.5 0.8 2.5 0.500

Russell Westbrook is the very early, very strong leader for POY. He, like, totally doesn’t suck.

Enough of the high brow analysis. Later.

Dan