Villanova & North Carolina for the Championship

As I did before, here are the player ratings for all the finals rotation guys (with all the ratings breakdowns) – as well as the player ratings of all rotation guys from the last 20 champions as comparisons. Enjoy:

2016FinalsRatings&PastChamps

I’ll cover some highlights:

Overall, don’t sleep on Brice Johnson, he is a phenomenal player – ranking with the very best past champs:

HnI Player Cla Team
203.6 Anthony Davis FR 2012 Kentucky
198.4 Kemba Walker JR 2011 Connecticut
193.7 Ty Lawson JR 2009 North Carolina
192.9 Brice Johnson SR North Carolina
191.7 Sean May JR 2005 North Carolina
190.3 Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida
188.3 Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut
187.5 Shane Battier SR 2001 Duke
186.3 Shabazz Napier SR 2014 Connecticut
185.2 Richard Hamilton JR 1999 Connecticut

If superstars win championships, then the Tar Heels would be the favorites.

The top scoring ratings (in points added to average 2016 finals lineup):

Sco Player Cla Team TS% Pt/40
9.9 Richard Hamilton JR 1999 Connecticut 0.555 26.8
8.9 Morris Peterson SR 2000 Michigan State 0.590 23.1
8.5 Tony Delk SR 1996 Kentucky 0.616 27.0
8.5 Jahlil Okafor FR 2015 Duke 0.635 23.0
8.0 Sean May JR 2005 North Carolina 0.613 26.1
7.9 Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida 0.652 22.7
7.8 Tyler Hansbrough SR 2009 North Carolina 0.605 27.4
7.8 Brice Johnson SR North Carolina 0.644 24.4
7.7 Jason Williams SO 2001 Duke 0.594 27.2
7.6 Kemba Walker JR 2011 Connecticut 0.538 25.0

Top producers from 2pt range:

2pt Player Cla Team
11.8 Jahlil Okafor FR 2015 Duke
8.5 Nazr Mohammed JR 1998 Kentucky
8.3 Brice Johnson SR North Carolina
7.7 Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut
7.6 Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida
6.5 Sean May JR 2005 North Carolina
5.8 Daniel Ochefu SR Villanova
5.8 Darrell Arthur SO 2008 Kansas
5.6 Darnell Jackson SR 2008 Kansas
5.5 Carlos Boozer SO 2001 Duke
5.4 Anthony Davis FR 2012 Kentucky
5.1 Isaiah Hicks JR North Carolina
5.1 Al Horford SO 2006 Florida
4.7 Al Horford JR 2007 Florida
4.6 Kennedy Meeks JR North Carolina

Four of the top 15 producers from two point range are playing in this game – which is pretty incredible. It will be interesting if Ochefu can stay out of foul trouble and compete with the three headed UNC post monster.

Top free throw producers don’t include any players from this game (Brice Johnson & Isaiah Hicks are tops at 2.0 & 1.9):

FT Player Cla Team
6.3 Tyler Hansbrough SR 2009 North Carolina
5.4 Russ Smith JR 2013 Louisville
4.7 Kemba Walker JR 2011 Connecticut
4.3 Richard Hamilton JR 1999 Connecticut
4.1 Sean May JR 2005 North Carolina
4.0 Shabazz Napier SR 2014 Connecticut
3.9 Marvin Williams FR 2005 North Carolina

Tops from three:

3pt Player Cla Team
8.2 Lee Humphrey JR 2006 Florida
7.3 Jason Williams SO 2001 Duke
7.0 Lee Humphrey SR 2007 Florida
7.0 Rashad Anderson SO 2004 Connecticut
7.0 Tony Delk SR 1996 Kentucky
6.7 Cameron Mills SR 1998 Kentucky
6.0 Morris Peterson SR 2000 Michigan State
5.7 Shane Battier SR 2001 Duke
5.4 Kyle Wiltjer FR 2012 Kentucky
5.3 Kris Jenkins JR Villanova
5.2 Ben Gordon JR 2004 Connecticut
5.1 Rashad McCants JR 2005 North Carolina

Rebounders:

Reb Player Cla Team R/40
8.5 Brian Zoubek SR 2010 Duke 16.6
5.9 Sean May JR 2005 North Carolina 16.0
5.3 Cole Aldrich FR 2008 Kansas 14.4
5.2 Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut 14.2
5.1 Nazr Mohammed JR 1998 Kentucky 13.8
4.9 Alex Oriakhi SO 2011 Connecticut 12.0
4.8 Brice Johnson SR North Carolina 15.0
4.8 Gorgui Dieng JR 2013 Louisville 12.1
4.8 Stephan Van Treese SR 2013 Louisville 11.2
4.7 Eugene Edgerson FR 1997 Arizona 12.7
4.5 Donnell Harris SO 1997 Arizona 12.8
4.4 Anthony Davis FR 2012 Kentucky 13.0
4.3 Miles Plumlee SO 2010 Duke 12.0
4.3 Jake Voskuhl JR 1999 Connecticut 12.0
4.2 Daniel Ochefu SR Villanova 13.1

Ball Handlers & Passers:

BH Player Cla Team A/40 TO/40
6.2 Ty Lawson JR 2009 North Carolina 8.8 2.5
6.0 Anthony Epps JR 1996 Kentucky 8.6 2.6
5.7 Steve Blake JR 2002 Maryland 9.9 4.0
5.6 Taliek Brown SR 2004 Connecticut 8.5 3.2
5.0 Mateen Cleaves SR 2000 Michigan State 8.7 4.6
4.5 Tyus Jones FR 2015 Duke 6.6 2.3
4.3 Peyton Siva SR 2013 Louisville 7.3 3.4
3.7 Jon Scheyer SR 2010 Duke 5.3 1.8
3.7 Raymond Felton JR 2005 North Carolina 8.7 4.5
3.7 Chris Duhon FR 2001 Duke 6.4 2.2
3.2 Ryan Arcidiacono SR Villanova 5.4 1.9
2.8 Theo Pinson SO North Carolina 6.1 2.7
2.7 Mario Chalmers JR 2008 Kansas 5.8 2.6
2.6 Jason Terry SO 1997 Arizona 5.8 2.8
2.5 Mike Bibby FR 1997 Arizona 6.5 3.6
2.3 Wayne Turner JR 1998 Kentucky 6.3 3.4
2.3 Marcus Paige SR North Carolina 4.6 1.6
2.2 Larry Drew FR 2009 North Carolina 8.2 5.0
2.2 Joel Berry SO North Carolina 4.9 1.9

Defensive Stops (no players from this game, tops is Daniel Ochefu at 1.9):

Stops Player Cla Team S/40 B/40 PF/40
7.0 Anthony Davis FR 2012 Kentucky 1.7 5.8 2.4
4.9 Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut 1.2 5.0 2.9
4.3 Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida 1.8 3.9 3.5
4.0 Gorgui Dieng JR 2013 Louisville 1.7 3.2 3.3
3.7 Shane Battier SR 2001 Duke 2.4 2.6 2.3
3.7 Nazr Mohammed JR 1998 Kentucky 1.8 3.7 4.4
3.5 Jeremy McNeil JR 2003 Syracuse 0.5 6.1 6.8

Anyway, enjoy the game. My team ratings would have Villanova by 0.5 points, but using the optimized minutes lineup for both teams (the M? column) – UNC becomes a 0.5 favorite with Brice Johnson logging in 37 minutes. So, I guess I’m saying it’s anybodies game.

Dan

The Sweet 16, Past Champions, & Similarity Scores

The title says it all – and it’s all in the following spreadsheet:

2016Sweet16&PastChampRatings&SimilarityScoresPost

I am literally leaving to coach baseball in about 2 minutes, no time to elaborate much at all.

Do note, the 2nd page are similarity scores between current Sweet 16 rotation players and all rotation players from the past 20 NCAA champions (stat comps adjusted for pace, SoS, etc. – NOT age or position or height/weight comps).  There are over 25,000 lines of data in those scores, from most similar to least. Any score under 10 is pretty similar, the farther you get over 10 take with a grain of salt. So as an example, there are no good comps in this sweet 16 for Anthony Davis (Daniel Ochefu is the closest with a 13.4 – not all that similar). Daniel Ochefu is very similar to both championship seasons of Al Horford though.

Later.

Dan

Current Tourney and Past Champions Mashup

I will tell you right now, it’s late. It’s my son’s birthday when he wakes up in a few hours (I’ll being doing all kinds of stuff with him & the family all the while trying to catch up on on the tourney action from the DVR as the day unfolds and I avoid sports media), but I really wanted to present my 2016 NCAA Tourney player rankings in a different way – and my mind wouldn’t settle until I got this done. Here’s the fruits of my labor this night:

2016TourneyTeams&PastChampsMashUp

Yes, it is what it sounds like – I included the final ratings of all rotation players from the past 20 NCAA champions into the ratings going into this tourney of the rotation players of all 68 tourney teams. I figured it would help people maybe get some perspective on some players they might not have yet gotten a chance to watch by seeing their rating breakdowns next to past players they remember fondly (or, not so fondly).

Yes, Denzel Valentine has been THAT good this season.

Now understand, I am fully capable of running similarity scores and such between these players – and was going to do so for this article – but I just didn’t have nearly enough time to get to it. I will probably run similarity scores of past champion players to current tourney players on twitter, for anyone who asks. So, feel free to tweet me and ask about any player you’d like. Or, comment below.

Man, I’m seriously tired. So, note the above spreadsheet has two pages. The first is the normal way I present all the ratings, stats, rating breakdowns, etc. – all fully sortable. The second deals with skill set breakdowns specifically, seeing who impacts games the most when they are on the court – and how they do it. It also shows where player statistical deficiencies lie. Play around with it, I wanted it to be easy for people to get a feel for any player. Enjoy.

Dan