2014 Regular Season NBA Player Rankings

Every NBA Player ranked by WAR (Wins Above Replacement):

2014NBARegularSeason

Same rankings, but sorted by team:

2014NBARegularSeasonByTeam

Players in red played for multiple teams (only the last team played for is listed), while the stats and ratings for these players are based on season totals (combining results from all the teams).

2014 NBA All WAR Team

This team is formed by the highest WAR/48 players, and the roster is completed when their %Min equals 5.000 (a full NBA season for a team).  The roster also has to be above league average in scoring rating, rebound rating, ball handling/passing rating, steal rating, and blocks rating.

Player Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% WAR/48 %Min
Kevin Durant 25 OKC 81 38.5 32.0 7.4 5.5 1.3 0.7 3.5 0.620 34.82 0.788
LeBron James 29 MIA 77 37.7 27.1 6.9 6.4 1.6 0.3 3.5 0.635 32.09 0.730
Chris Paul 28 LAC 62 35.0 19.1 4.3 10.7 2.5 0.1 2.3 0.568 26.51 0.550
Stephen Curry 25 GSW 78 36.5 24.0 4.3 8.5 1.6 0.2 3.8 0.601 24.46 0.718
Brook Lopez 25 BRK 17 31.4 20.7 6.0 0.9 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.614 24.29 0.134
Kevin Love 25 MIN 77 36.3 26.1 12.5 4.4 0.8 0.5 2.5 0.578 23.83 0.704
Russell Westbrook 25 OKC 46 30.7 21.8 5.7 6.9 1.9 0.2 3.8 0.534 23.01 0.356
Anthony Davis 20 NOP 67 35.2 20.8 10.0 1.6 1.3 2.8 1.6 0.569 21.90 0.594
Al Jefferson 29 CHA 73 35.0 21.8 10.8 2.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.526 22.26 0.426

Al Jefferson’s %Min was adjusted to get the team to exactly 5.000.  His was adjusted down instead of lower WAR/48 Anthony Davis because Davis’ shot blocking was needed to make this team better than league average in terms of rim protection.

The odd man out is James Hardin, who had a better WAR/48 than either Jefferson or Davis – but had to be moved to make room for Davis and his needed shot blocking.

Dan

 

2014 Hoops Nerd All NCAA Tourney Team

(Much of this may look like an exact repost of the article I wrote a week ago just before the Final 4 games, because it is -  I didn’t want to explain all the same things again.  Obviously the info is updated to include all the tourney games.  I did add the All Tourney teams for fun, enjoy!)

To answer this question, I once again do what I do – I rank EVERY player game from this tourney (all 1311 player games) and EVERY player overall (all 718 players) based on their tourney performances – both in sheer dominance (PAOPoints Above Opponent) and in contribution to team wins and losses (PW & PLPlayer Win shares and Player Loss shares).

This isn’t your run-of-the-mill, let me name 10 guys or so that seemed to have some great games (ignoring many others) article – you can find those articles anywhere.  I rank every game, and I rank every guy – it’s what I do.  No stone left unturned.  It’s my thing.

To lead in, if this is your first introduction to my tourney player performance rankings – you might want to read my initial one after the Round of 32, where I explain much of what you’ll see.

Onto the rankings – first the ranking of ALL the NCAA tourney individual player games (PDF files ranking all 1311 player games):

All player games ranked by Player Wins (PW):2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankbyPW

I bolded the Top 67 player games in terms of Player Wins (PW), put in italics the top 67 player games in terms of Points Above Opposition (PAO), and put in red the player games that were top 67 in both metrics.  I picked 67 because there were 67 games, seemed logical.

Five different players in this tourney earned over 88% credit for leading their team to victory in a single tourney game: Chassan Randle (0.88 PW in Stanford’s 5 point win over New Mexico in the Round of 64),  Lawrence Alexander (0.91 PW in NDSU’s 5 point OT victory over Oklahoma in the Round of 64), Julius Randle (0.99 PW in Kentucky’s 2 point win over Wichita State in the Round of 32), Shabazz Napier (0.89 PW in UConn’s 6 point win over MSU in the Elite 8), and Frank Kaminsky (0.98 PW in Wisconsin’s 1 point OT squeaker over my beloved Arizona Wildcat’s in the Elite 8).

On the complete other end of the spectrum, Trevor Cooney is ranked #1311, having earned 56% of the blame for Syracuse’s 2 point loss to Dayton.  Cooney played 25 minutes, scored 2 points -  with 2 steals, 1 foul, and a 17% TS%.  #1310 is an Arizona Wildcat in the Elite 8 – combine that with the previously mentioned #2 (a Badger) – that Elite 8 game will haunt me for a while.

 

All player games ranked by Points Above Opponent (PAO):2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankbyPAO

These are the guys that just plain put up massive stats – often in blow out wins.

Not surprisingly, Adreian Payne’s 41 point, 8 rebound, 87% TS% performance versus Delaware ranks #1 with a 17.6 PAO.  MSU won that game by 15, so Adreian’s teammates were actually outplayed by Delaware, combining for a -2.6 PAO.

Amazingly, PAO rank #2 AND #3 belongs to players in a losing cause – Aaric Murray of Texas Southern scoring 38 with a 72% TS% in the 12 point play in loss to Cal Poly (Murray was 15.3 PAO, the rest of his teammates combined for a miserable -27.3 PAO), and Bryce Cotton of Providence scoring 36 with 8 assists and a 68% TS% in the two point Round of 64 loss to UNC.  Actually 6 of the top 12 PAO games were in losses – let’s just say Cleanthony Early of Wichita State, Dustin Hogue of Iowa State, Marcus Smart of OK State, and Quinn Cook of Duke shouldn’t be getting any blame for their respective teams’ tourney losses.

While 6 of the top 12 PAO games were in a losing cause – the next 17 top PAO games were in wins.

 

All player games ranked by Player Wins (PW) & sorted by team:2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankPWbyTeam

Just to make it easier to find the results of the player games of your favorite team.  Looking at the champs, Shabazz Napier had 5 of the top 6 UConn player games in both PW & PAO - with 4 performances being top 67 in both metrics.  Amazing.

 

Overall NCAA Tourney player rankings by Player Win differential (PW minus PL):2014NCAATourneyOverallRankbyPW

I bolded the Top 32 players in terms of Player Wins (PW), put in italics the top 32 players in terms of Points Above Opposition (PAO), and put in red the players that were top 32 in both metrics.  I picked 32 because there were 32 teams alive in Round “3″.

Shabazz Napier (dominant) and Julius Randle (his rebounding dominance SO integral in UK’s nail biters) easily #1 & #2.

 

Overall NCAA Tourney player rankings by Points Above Opponent (PAO):2014NCAATourneyOverallRankbyPAO

Jarnell Stokes and his 18.0 ppg, 12.8 rpg and 64% TS% in leading his team to the Elite 8 comes in #2 well behind Napier, but just ahead of Kaminsky.

 

The overall Player Win differential rankings – sorted by team:2014NCAATourneyOverallPWRankbyTeam

Again, to make it easier to find all the results of your favorite player(s) and team(s).

 

The 2014 NCAA Hoops Nerd All Tourney Team

1st Team Team G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g To/g TS%
S. Napier Connecticut 6 36.3 21.2 5.5 4.5 2.5 0.0 3.5 0.645
J. Randle Kentucky 6 32.2 14.8 9.8 1.8 0.7 0.7 1.8 0.539
F. Kaminsky Wisconsin 5 31.2 16.4 5.8 1.2 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.582
B. Dawson Michigan St. 4 32.3 16.3 8.8 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.3 0.663
X. Thames San Diego St. 3 37.7 26.0 1.3 3.7 1.3 0.7 1.7 0.545
2nd Team   G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g To/g TS%
J. Stokes Tennessee 4 36.0 18.0 12.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.3 0.637
A. Gordon Arizona 4 33.8 14.3 9.5 3.3 1.3 2.3 2.0 0.606
D. Daniels Connecticut 6 33.8 16.0 7.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.578
A. Payne Michigan St. 4 30.3 20.5 6.5 1.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 0.636
J. Adams UCLA 3 30.7 19.0 5.7 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.640
3rd Team   G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g To/g TS%
J. Richardson Tennessee 4 34.0 19.3 3.5 3.0 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.675
S. Wilbekin Florida 5 34.8 14.2 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.530
J. Morgan Michigan 4 29.5 12.8 7.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.8 0.739
L. Hancock Louisville 3 30.0 18.7 2.3 3.0 2.7 0.3 3.0 0.667
R. Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 4 27.3 14.0 4.8 1.8 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.727

Shabazz Napier was so good, he had more Player Wins than all other entire teams not named Florida, Wisconsin, & Kentucky (if you sum all their PW’s, you obviously get 4, 4, & 5 respectively – Napier had 3.22 PWs).

I formed these three “teams” subjectively based on their PW/PL differential & their PAO.  Feel free to look over all the complete results I give above and form your own opinions.

As usual, if you have ANY questions  or you like what I’m doing here (and maybe appreciate that I’m trying to offer information and complete results not seen anywhere else, especially from mainstream media) – comment below and/or hit me up a bunch  on Twitter.  Thanks!

Dan

 

Championship Game: Kentucky vs. UConn

Unlike what I wrote about yesterday – hey, at least it was college basketball related – I figured I better write SOMETHING about this game.

I’m tired.  Despite working every day – I’ve been trying to keep up and offer stuff up daily about the tourney.  Well, we’re at the end – and I’m spent.  First, the players & their per game seasonal stats, ranked by HnI – (M? are my predicted minutes for each player for this game based both on the minutes they’ve played in the tourney & lineup optimization ratings-wise):

Player HnI GP Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
Shabazz Napier 183 39 35.0 17.9 5.8 4.9 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.584 37
Julius Randle 164 39 30.7 15.1 10.5 1.4 0.5 0.8 2.5 0.561 35
Willie Cauley-Stein 154 37 23.8 6.8 6.1 0.7 1.2 2.9 0.8 0.574 0
DeAndre Daniels 138 37 29.0 13.2 6.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 0.565 36
Marcus Lee 135 24 6.3 2.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.590 10
Dakari Johnson 134 38 13.8 5.2 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.549 21
Aaron Harrison 130 39 32.4 13.9 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.3 1.6 0.551 38
James Young 130 39 32.3 14.2 4.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 0.531 37
Niels Giffey 129 39 24.4 8.4 3.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.685 35
Andrew Harrison 129 39 31.5 10.9 3.1 3.9 0.5 0.2 2.7 0.501 37
Ryan Boatright 128 38 32.4 12.1 3.5 3.4 1.5 0.2 1.9 0.509 38
Alex Poythress 126 39 18.4 5.9 4.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.544 18
Amida Brimah 126 39 16.3 4.2 3.0 0.3 0.1 2.3 0.7 0.634 20
Lasan Kromah 115 39 22.5 6.1 2.6 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.3 0.512 22
Terrence Samuel 112 29 8.9 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.593 7
Phillip Nolan 98 39 14.0 3.4 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.583 5
Tyler Olander 91 33 8.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.527 0
Omar Calhoun 73 32 13.4 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.418 0
Jarrod Polson 60 33 8.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.427 3
Dominique Hawkins 49 32 8.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.342 1

Kentucky players are in blue, Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky won’t be playing.  I keep saying he’s an important player to lose – yet Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, and Alex Poythress have covered his loss admirably.  I keep thinking “this is the game Kentucky will miss poor Willie and his defense/rebounding” – and yet, they keep squeaking out the wins.

Shabazz Napier, #1 rated player in the nation according to my metrics.

 

Here are the same rankings – with per 40 minute stats to help visualize production:

Player HnI GP Mn/g Pts/40 Rb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 TS% M?
Shabazz Napier 183 39 35.0 20.5 6.7 5.6 2.1 0.4 3.2 0.584 37
Julius Randle 164 39 30.7 19.6 13.7 1.8 0.7 1.0 3.3 0.561 35
Willie Cauley-Stein 154 37 23.8 11.5 10.2 1.1 2.0 4.8 1.4 0.574 0
DeAndre Daniels 138 37 29.0 18.2 8.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.1 0.565 36
Marcus Lee 135 24 6.3 15.7 9.6 0.5 0.0 3.7 1.1 0.590 10
Dakari Johnson 134 38 13.8 15.0 11.4 0.7 0.6 1.6 1.9 0.549 21
Aaron Harrison 130 39 32.4 17.2 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.551 38
James Young 130 39 32.3 17.5 5.2 2.1 1.0 0.3 2.3 0.531 37
Niels Giffey 129 39 24.4 13.7 6.2 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.5 0.685 35
Andrew Harrison 129 39 31.5 13.9 3.9 5.0 0.6 0.3 3.4 0.501 37
Ryan Boatright 128 38 32.4 14.9 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.2 2.4 0.509 38
Alex Poythress 126 39 18.4 12.8 9.8 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.1 0.544 18
Amida Brimah 126 39 16.3 10.3 7.3 0.7 0.3 5.7 1.8 0.634 20
Lasan Kromah 115 39 22.5 10.9 4.6 2.0 2.0 0.6 2.3 0.512 22
Terrence Samuel 112 29 8.9 10.8 4.0 3.7 1.7 0.0 2.6 0.593 7
Phillip Nolan 98 39 14.0 9.7 6.9 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.583 5
Tyler Olander 91 33 8.3 8.5 5.9 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.527 0
Omar Calhoun 73 32 13.4 11.4 4.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 2.9 0.418 0
Jarrod Polson 60 33 8.5 4.6 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.427 3
Dominique Hawkins 49 32 8.6 3.6 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.342 1

Looking at the per 40 minute stats – it’s easier to see how Marcus Lee & Dakari Johnson rate so well in their limited minutes.

With Kentucky constantly driving the lane and pounding the post – I expect Amidah Brimah to have about 1000 blocks if he can stay out of foul trouble.  Of course, Randle & company will probably have about 1000 offensive rebounds off those blocks.

 

I think I’ll break down the ratings into the minutiae, since we’re here:

Player M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Shabazz Napier 37 183 116 26 47 43 32 29 21
Julius Randle 35 164 109 64 47 -1 75 -14 9
W. Cauley-Stein 0 154 66 58 8 0 59 -2 54
DeAndre Daniels 36 138 100 45 19 35 41 -14 19
Marcus Lee 10 135 93 86 7 0 61 -5 20
Dakari Johnson 21 134 81 70 11 0 69 -12 6
Aaron Harrison 38 130 93 29 33 31 18 6 12
James Young 37 130 91 27 26 38 27 0 7
Niels Giffey 35 129 91 29 13 49 32 -1 11
Andrew Harrison 37 129 66 12 38 15 20 21 -1
Ryan Boatright 38 128 71 15 32 24 20 21 19
Alex Poythress 18 126 69 48 18 3 56 -11 10
Amida Brimah 20 126 64 51 12 0 42 -10 33
Lasan Kromah 22 115 52 26 12 14 22 -1 23
Terrence Samuel 7 112 63 39 25 -1 18 14 14
Phillip Nolan 5 98 55 39 17 0 38 -10 0
Tyler Olander 0 91 42 23 16 3 33 -1 8
Omar Calhoun 0 73 36 11 16 9 21 -17 5
Jarrod Polson 3 60 15 -5 0 20 15 14 -4
D. Hawkins 1 49 4 8 3 -7 17 10 -6

Again – Kentucky should DOMINATE the boards (top 4 rebounders in this game are Wildcats).  I’m like a broken record with every Kentucky write up – they’ll probably dominate the boards and get to the line.  And they do, every game.

Now, Shabazz Napier (and Boatright to a lesser extent) and his ablility get to the lane and draw fouls on Kentucky’s bigs (or guards) could change this game.  Kentucky’s best rim protector is out, and their next best rim protector is very raw.   Kentucky is only quality 7 deep, and one of the seven is Marcus Lee – who has never played more than 15 minutes in a college game.  If Kentucky is forced to give extended minutes to Hawkins &/or Polson – they’ll have difficulty squeaking out that 6th win (their tourney 18 point differential is the lowest for a finals team in NCAA history).

Kentucky will win the boards, UConn needs to win at the three point line.

 

Team rating breakdowns based on predicted minutes:

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Connecticut 137.1 84.5 31.1 24.4 28.9 31.0 5.9 19.2
Kentucky 134.6 85.5 39.8 29.5 16.2 40.8 0.3 7.4

Obviously, UConn is more small ball (threes, assists, steals) – Kentucky big (rebounding, scoring in the lane & at the line).

Ken Pomeroy has Kentucky by 1 (honestly, it’s probably closer to 0.2, but he has to round).

My general team ratings based on the entire season would have Kentucky winning by 1.1.  But, Kentucky isn’t full strength.

The optimized lineups (the team HnI above), the best predictor for this game, has UConn winning by 1.3.

If I were to optimize Kentucky’s lineup with a healthy Cauley-Stein, we would get Kentucky winning this particular game by 0.9.

So, Kentucky sans Willie Cauley-Stein in this game costs them about 2.1 points.

Jack Taylor – the Man, the Myth, the Legend

Remember him?  He scored over 100 points in a college game not once, but twice.  Last November, ESPN was all over him – possibly making him at the moment better known to the general public than almost any major college player.  So, what do I do the day before the biggest D1 college game of the year?  Well, I write about a D3 player who made headlines about 4.5 months ago.  It’s how I roll.

Yes, it seems  a litte late to write about him.  Well, I needed to wait.  I told people months ago that I would eventually run the numbers, and see how well he’d rate using my normal college ratings – but I needed a full season of data.  My ratings adjust for everything – obviously they’d see through the statistical “noise” created by the system that created the legend of Jack Taylor.

But, I got to be honest, I was a little worried that somehow Grinnell College and their penchant for getting just one or two players a TON of threes every game could distort my ratings enough to make Taylor look like a high level D1 player.  But, I have faith in the process, let’s give it a go.  Here are the general stats for Grinnell this season:

Player GP Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
Jack Taylor 24 20.8 28.8 1.5 3.0 1.3 0.0 2.7 0.562
Patrick Maher 25 20.5 17.6 4.4 8.0 1.9 0.3 2.2 0.649
Aaron Levin 17 19.2 18.3 6.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.681
Luke Yeager 25 19.2 16.7 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.2 1.6 0.587
Tague Zachary 25 17.9 5.8 4.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.507
Julian Marx 25 17.4 13.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.679
Cody Olson 25 15.8 5.3 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.595
Kyle Parker 23 13.6 6.7 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.1 1.3 0.481
Nick Curta 25 13.0 1.6 3.7 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.408
Stuart Hoegh 23 11.0 0.7 1.5 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.259
Dylan Bartuch 25 10.7 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.600
Mike Porter 25 10.3 3.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.554
116.8 33.7 21.4 12.2 3.0 12.4 0.588

That’s not all the guys, just the ones that played over 20% of the available team minutes.  There are 8 other low minute guys (yes, 20 players in total).

First glance, having done this for so long – I already can see Jack Taylor isn’t the best player on this team.  Patrick Maher does everything better (including turn the ball over less despite 8 assists a game) than Jack, he just doesn’t shoot nearly as much.

Also note, Jack leads the team in minutes per game, yet he barely breaks 20 mpg.  Obviously in a system like this – except for in a case in which they are playing their worst opponent of the season and they want to shatter some record and get on ESPN – players need to get rest from pressing, running, and launching threes at a break neck pace.  Reminds me of hockey – go crazy hard for short periods of time and sub out.

So, Jack Taylor didn’t average something like 50 ppg.  He ended the season under 30 ppg (although well over 50 pts/40 minutes).  Makes it more than obvious that Grinnell selects an occasional game they know they can win easily to set records – I assume to make headlines and help recruiting.  Who wouldn’t want to be the next kid to score over 100 in a game?

On to the ratings.  I don’t have a team rating for Grinnell, I’ll have to work around it.  So, first, let’s just try 100 – an average NCAA D1 team.  I know Grinnell would probably be the WORST D1 team (more on that later) of the 351 teams – but for fun we’ll make them much better than that just to see how well the ratings filter out the noise of Grinnell’s crazy style and frenetic pace.  Here are the HnI ratings (ignores missed games, how good the player is when on the court) and rating breakdowns:

Player Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df Int HnI
Patrick Maher 101 38 37 27 23 60 19 -46 157
Jack Taylor 140 20 46 74 8 6 11 -26 139
Aaron Levin 118 47 12 58 34 -1 6 -23 134
Luke Yeager 93 33 19 41 11 6 11 -5 116
Julian Marx 95 6 4 86 8 10 5 -4 114
Kyle Parker 40 17 8 16 19 9 10 14 91
Cody Olson 36 18 3 16 18 15 5 17 91
Tague Zachary 29 6 2 21 24 -1 17 21 90
Mike Porter 30 8 6 16 18 11 3 15 77
Dylan Bartuch 21 9 7 5 14 3 8 19 65
Nick Curta 7 11 2 -7 29 -5 5 26 62
Stuart Hoegh -3 0 1 -3 14 -7 11 27 42

I think all the columns are logical – the higher the number the better in every case.  The 2nd to last column is “intangibles” – it’s the final adjustment based on playing time in relation to the quality of the rest of the team.  The style that exaggerates the scoring rating also forces the best players to not be able to last but half of each game – docking them in terms of intangibles.  The “glue” guys (non scorers) who probably play all the defense end up with the high “intangibles” final adjustment.  Anyway – if you add from 2pt through Int – you’ll end up with the HnI.  Sum all the HnI weighted by each player’s minutes, divide by team minutes – and you’ll get exactly the team rating of 100.  Simple.

So, IF Grinnell were an average D1 team, and based on my latest national rankings (3-25, before the Sweet 16), Patrick Maher would be the 31st best player in the nation.  Our shooting machine Jack Taylor would be the 134th ranked player nationally.

Breaking down the ratings – Jack Taylor’s scoring rating of 140 would place him 4th nationally, while his three point rating would place him 6th nationally (teammate Marx would be 3rd).  Taylor’s free throw rating would place him 27th nationally.

Where rest of Jack Taylor’s ratings would place him nationally (out of 3064 players) if Grinnell were an average D1 team: Ball Handling, 1043rd.  Defensive stops rating, 1050th.  2pt rating, 1810th.  Intanibles 3028th.  Rebounding, 3033rd.

But, Grinnell wasn’t anywhere close to the average D1 team, so all those results are fantasy – just for fun.  What are the Grinnell players’ “true” ratings?

Well, first off – I need a good team rating.  I don’t run regressions and create my own team ratings – don’t have the time, patience, or computing power.  What I do is use Jeff Sagarin’s team ratings from the last 18 years, paired with team efficiency ratings I devised using cbb-reference’s SRS & other team info.  Basically, I’ve devised what I think is the best way to go from Sagarin’s ratings to a rating that is a ratio, 100 being average. 152 is the highest team rating in 18 seasons (Duke in 1999), 53 the lowest (Grambling State in 2013).

Anyway, Sagarin only does his ratings on D1 teams.  Grinnell is a D3 team.  So, here I’ll use Massey’s ratings – he rates ALL college teams at every level.  His Power rating ranks out pretty similarly to Sagarin’s general rating.  The worst D1 team in both this year is Grambling State (70 team rating in my ratings) – they have a 7.02 power rating, well above Grinnell’s 1.33.  So, we know Grinnell’s team rating should be a bit below 70.

After comparing Massey with Sagarin over the last many years – I’ve come up with a team rating for Grinnell of 67.  They are worse than any current D1 team – but better than 21 of the very worst D1 teams of the last 18 years.  An average D1 team would beat them something like 100 to 67 (to keep it simple).  They are, in essense, about 2/3′s as good as an average D1 team.

Plugging 67 into the team rating and running the numbers again – we get:

Player Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df Int HnI
Patrick Maher 68 25 25 18 15 40 13 -31 105
Jack Taylor 94 13 31 50 6 4 7 -17 93
Aaron Levin 79 32 8 39 23 -1 4 -15 89
Luke Yeager 63 22 13 28 7 4 7 -3 78
Julian Marx 64 4 2 58 6 6 4 -3 77
Kyle Parker 27 11 5 10 13 6 7 9 61
Cody Olson 24 12 2 11 12 10 4 11 61
Tague Zachary 19 4 2 14 16 -1 11 14 60
Mike Porter 20 5 4 10 12 7 2 10 52
Dylan Bartuch 14 6 5 3 9 2 6 13 44
Nick Curta 5 7 2 -4 20 -3 3 17 42
Stuart Hoegh -2 0 1 -2 10 -5 8 18 28

And there it is.  Despite averaging over 55 points per 40 minutes, and scoring over 100 points in a game twice – my ratings have Jack Taylor – the man, the myth, the legend – about 7% worse than the average D1 player.

Grinnell’s BEST player ranking in each skillset (along with Taylor’s ranking) – out of 3064 D1 players:

HnI: Patrick Maher ranked 1009th.  Jack Taylor, 1593rd.

Scoring: Jack Taylor, 221st.

2pt scoring: Aaron Levin 989th.  Jack Taylor, 1381st.

Free Throw: Jack Taylor, 253rd.

3pt scoring: Julian Marx, 39th.  Jack Taylor, 100th.

Rebounding: Aaron Levin 1654th.  Jack Taylor, 3062nd.  Grinnell would get destroyed on the boards against almost any D1 team.

Handles/Passing: Patrick Maher 29th.  Jack Taylor, 1185th.

Defensive Stops: Patrick Maher 742nd.  Jack Taylor, 1688th.

Intangibles: Stuart Hoegh 204th, Jack Taylor, 2916th.

When it comes to D1 basketball, Jack Taylor at best would be a three point specialist who can occasionally put the ball on the floor and get to the hole instant offense off the bench guy for a middling or worse (125th ranked or worse) D1 team.  He’d be a rebounding and defensive liability due to having below average D1 skills and athleticism outside of his shooting and probably adequate handles.

His teammate, Patrick Maher, would be a more than adequate starting point guard for most middling or worse teams.  He’d be the actual D1 “prospect” on Grinnell.

So, Jack Taylor - the guy that has scored over 100 points in TWO college games in his career – was not nearly as good as the average D1 player last season, all things considered.

Now, the question is, how many points would Doug McDermott had scored if he played for Grinnell on November 5th, 2012 against Faith Baptist Bible College?  180? 200?

Dan

The Final 4: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

To see all the Final Four players ranked based on the entire season, refer to this post.

Here are the main guys for this game, rank on left in based on the 38 guys in the Final Four player rankings – I put Kentucky guys in blue to help differentiate, while guys in italics are low minute guys:

Rank Player HnI GP Mn/g Pts/40 Rb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 TS%
2 Frank Kaminsky 177 37 27.0 20.9 9.4 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.5 0.607
4 Julius Randle 162 38 30.8 19.6 13.8 1.8 0.6 1.0 3.3 0.560
5 Willie Cauley-Stein 153 37 23.8 11.5 10.2 1.1 2.0 4.8 1.4 0.574
9 Sam Dekker 143 37 30.0 16.5 8.2 1.8 1.0 0.8 1.5 0.546
13 Nigel Hayes 134 37 17.7 17.7 6.5 2.1 2.0 1.2 2.7 0.533
14 Marcus Lee 134 23 6.1 15.6 9.9 0.6 0.0 3.7 1.1 0.585
15 Ben Brust 132 37 34.6 14.8 5.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.583
16 Josh Gasser 132 37 33.2 10.8 4.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.641
17 Dakari Johnson 132 37 13.7 14.8 11.3 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 0.544
18 Traevon Jackson 131 37 31.0 13.8 4.9 5.2 0.9 0.1 2.8 0.532
20 Aaron Harrison 129 38 32.3 17.4 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.4 2.0 0.553
21 James Young 129 38 32.2 17.5 5.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 2.3 0.529
22 Andrew Harrison 128 38 31.6 13.9 3.9 5.0 0.6 0.3 3.4 0.509
27 Alex Poythress 125 38 18.1 12.9 9.8 1.0 0.7 1.7 2.2 0.536
28 Duje Dukan 116 37 7.9 13.5 7.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.589
31 Bronson Koenig 105 36 15.3 8.6 3.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.551
37 Jarrod Polson 61 32 8.7 4.6 2.9 2.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.438
38 Dominique Hawkins 48 31 8.5 3.5 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.324

Cauley-Stein is in red because he’s out due to his ankle injury.  Not having him didn’t seem to hurt Kentucky their last game mainly because of the great 15 minutes Marcus Lee gave them (0.36 Player Win share that game, the highest PW of any player game in the tourney who played less than 18 minutes in a game).  They might really miss his quality and more experienced defense against a very crafty Frank Kaminsky this game though.  Seeing the per 40 minute stats up there helps one appreciate the across the board production of ol’ Frank.  Kaminsky is still in spitting distance of the overall #1 spot nationally – although leapfrogging Shabazz Napier could be tough.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Rank Player M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
2 Frank Kaminsky 33 177 127 72 30 25 51 6 25
4 Julius Randle 35 162 108 62 47 -1 75 -14 9
5 Willie Cauley-Stein 0 153 65 57 8 0 58 -2 54
9 Sam Dekker 30 143 88 48 21 20 43 5 14
13 Nigel Hayes 18 134 92 58 34 0 35 -4 19
14 Marcus Lee 7 134 91 83 7 0 63 -5 19
15 Ben Brust 34 132 86 16 19 51 26 9 9
16 Josh Gasser 34 132 69 9 31 30 23 14 3
17 Dakari Johnson 21 132 78 68 11 0 67 -13 7
18 Traevon Jackson 35 131 71 19 33 20 23 29 4
20 Aaron Harrison 38 129 94 30 34 30 18 5 12
21 James Young 36 129 89 26 25 39 26 0 6
22 Andrew Harrison 37 128 67 12 39 16 20 20 -1
27 Alex Poythress 17 125 67 45 19 3 56 -11 11
28 Duje Dukan 4 116 79 44 10 26 38 2 -5
31 Bronson Koenig 12 105 47 23 2 22 19 20 2
37 Jarrod Polson 2 61 17 -4 0 20 15 14 -4
38 Dominique Hawkins 7 48 2 6 3 -7 17 11 -5

Even with Cauley-Stein out – the top four rated rebounders are still Wildcats (Randle, Johnson, Lee, & Poythress).  Kaminsky is really gonna have to put in a huge effort to keep the Kentucky bangers off the offensive boards.

Julius Randle and the Harrisons are adept at getting to the line (Julius averages 9.4 free throw attempts per 40 minutes - with Andrew at 6.9 & Aaron 5.6).  Dakari Johnson gets to the line a great deal himself (6.2 FTA/40) – he just has such a hard time making his freebies (45%) that his FT rating is poor.  I would assume Kentucky will attack Frank Kaminsky as much as possible to try to get him in foul trouble.  Wisconsin will do whatever they can to protect him (don’t allow him to be matched with Randle) to get him well over 30 minutes of playing time.

Ben Brust is the three point specialist of this game, hitting 39% of his 7.4 attempts every 40 minutes.  His teammate Gasser hits a more impressive 44%, but in less than half the attempts (3.5 attempts per 40 min).  James Young launches the most threes of any player in this game (7.5 attempts per 40 min), but he is very streaky at 35%.  Whether Young is hot or cold this game could be the difference.

 

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Wisconsin 139.2 85.6 34.0 25.5 26.1 32.2 11.8 10.6
Kentucky 131.1 82.5 37.6 29.2 15.7 39.7 0.3 6.9

Wisconsin will win the turnover battle, and they also have the better shot at being more efficient at scoring (especially from three).  The question is – how many MORE shots will Kentucky get by winning on the boards and getting those second and third shots?

If Kaminsky stays out of foul trouble, Wisconsin will be very tough to beat.

Pomeroy has Wisconsin by 1.  My optimized lineup with a healthy Willie Cauley-Stein would pretty much agree, Wisconsin winning by just 0.9.  My general team ratings based on the season as a whole have Wisconsin by 2.4.

However, Cauley-Stein is out, and the optimized lineups (with Kentucky’s relatively short bench) have Wisconsin winning by 4.1.  Based on the player ratings and difference of the optimized lineups with and without him, Willie Cauley-Stein being out costs Kentucky 3.2 points this match up.

Dan

The Final 4: Florida vs. Connecticut

To see all the Final Four players ranked, refer to the post preceding this one.

Here are the main guys for this game, rank on left in based on the 38 guys in the Final Four player rankings – I put Florida guys in red to help differentiate, while guys in italics are low minute guys:

Rnk Player HnI GP Mn/g Pts/40 Rb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 TS%
1 Shabazz Napier 181 38 34.9 20.7 6.8 5.6 2.0 0.4 3.3 0.581
3 Casey Prather 164 36 27.9 19.8 7.1 2.4 1.5 0.8 3.1 0.624
6 Patric Young 149 38 26.0 16.6 9.6 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.9 0.551
7 Scottie Wilbekin 146 33 33.8 15.9 2.9 4.4 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.543
8 Michael Frazier 145 38 30.4 16.6 4.6 1.5 1.5 0.2 1.6 0.648
10 Chris Walker 140 17 5.0 16.0 11.3 0.5 0.9 3.8 0.9 0.557
11 Dorian Finney-Smith 137 36 25.6 13.9 10.5 3.3 0.7 0.7 2.6 0.479
12 DeAndre Daniels 136 36 28.7 18.1 8.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.560
19 Kasey Hill 130 31 22.1 9.9 3.5 5.8 2.2 0.3 2.7 0.483
23 Niels Giffey 128 38 24.4 13.6 6.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.686
24 Ryan Boatright 126 37 32.3 14.9 4.2 4.2 1.9 0.2 2.4 0.506
25 Amida Brimah 126 38 16.4 10.3 7.4 0.6 0.3 5.7 1.7 0.641
26 Will Yeguete 125 38 23.3 8.5 8.9 2.0 1.7 0.3 2.0 0.500
29 Lasan Kromah 115 38 22.8 11.0 4.7 2.0 2.0 0.6 2.3 0.514
30 Terrence Samuel 112 28 8.6 11.0 4.1 3.8 1.8 0.0 2.7 0.579
32 Jacob Kurtz 103 26 8.5 7.6 6.9 1.3 1.1 0.2 1.5 0.600
33 Phillip Nolan 99 38 14.0 9.9 7.0 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.589
34 DeVon Walker 94 34 12.3 8.1 4.1 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.9 0.457
35 Tyler Olander 93 32 8.4 8.7 6.0 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.537
36 Omar Calhoun 72 32 13.4 11.4 4.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 2.9 0.418

Shabazz Napier is the star (#1 rated player in the nation at the moment), followed by 6 Gators – five of which will get plenty of playing time.  Napier obviously has to dominate again for UConn to have a shot here.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Rnk Player M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
1 Shabazz Napier 37 181 116 27 47 42 32 28 20
3 Casey Prather 30 164 127 91 35 1 41 -6 17
6 Patric Young 30 149 93 73 20 0 56 -7 16
7 Scottie Wilbekin 35 146 87 17 26 44 14 29 19
8 Michael Frazier 34 145 111 14 13 84 23 1 15
10 Chris Walker 6 140 91 92 -1 0 67 -5 21
11 Dorian Finney-Smith 28 137 63 21 21 21 61 9 5
12 DeAndre Daniels 36 136 97 42 20 35 41 -13 19
19 Kasey Hill 18 130 45 29 21 -5 17 39 20
23 Niels Giffey 35 128 89 27 12 50 32 -1 11
24 Ryan Boatright 37 126 69 14 32 23 20 21 19
25 Amida Brimah 20 126 64 51 13 0 41 -10 33
26 Will Yeguete 17 125 41 25 17 0 48 2 14
29 Lasan Kromah 22 115 53 27 12 14 23 -1 23
30 Terrence Samuel 7 112 61 35 27 -1 19 15 15
32 Jacob Kurtz 0 103 47 40 7 0 39 -1 8
33 Phillip Nolan 6 99 56 40 16 0 38 -9 0
34 DeVon Walker 2 94 33 1 10 22 22 1 19
35 Tyler Olander 0 93 44 24 16 3 34 -1 9
36 Omar Calhoun 0 72 35 11 15 9 21 -17 5

The best scorers in this game are Prather (the best overall & from 2pt range), Napier (the best at getting to and coverting from the line), and  Frazier (takes tons o’ threes, makes tones o’ threes).

Napier & Prather are the most proficient in this game at getting to the line (7.0 & 7.4 fta/40 respectively) – the difference being Napier hits 87% of his free throws, Prather just 68%.

Michael Frazier takes 9.1 threes per 40 minutes, and makes 45% of them.  Napier takes the most for UConn (6.1 attempts per 40), making 40% - while Niels Giffey hits an amazing 49% of his 4.9 three attempts every 40 minutes.  UConn can’t afford to allow Frazier to launch all day.

The best two rebounders in this game, Finney-Smith & Young, are Gators (best 3 actually if you add the limited minutes of Chris Walker).

Amidah Brimah is a shot blocking machine – but can he handle the physicality the Gators can throw at him in waves.  I’m a little worried Patrick Young might break him in two.

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Florida 143.7 86.5 40.2 21.5 24.8 37.2 8.1 15.3
Connecticut 135.8 83.4 30.2 24.4 28.8 30.8 5.8 19.0

If Florida dominates the interior like they should (rebounding & put backs), they’ll probably win – and especially if Frazier catches his usual fire from three and Wilbekin continues his great tourney play, they’ll obviously win.

If Napier continues to blow up, and Daniels continues his improved tourney play, and if UConn at the very least competes on the boards – it could get very interesting.

Pomeroy has Florida by 6.  My general team ratings only have Florida winning by 3.7.  With the optimized lineup team ratings, that Florida advantage falls slightly to +3.5.

Dan

Ranking the Final Four Players

38 players ranked by Hoops Nerd Impact (HnI) based on the whole season – in PDF form:

2014FinalFour

I squeezed in more info than normal – including both per game and per 40 minute box score stats for easier comparison.

Willie Cauley-Stein is in red because he won’t be playing.  Players in italics are lower minute guys and their ratings should be taken with a grain of salt due to small sample size (like #10 Chris Walker and his great per minute stats, in a grand total of 85 minutes on the season).

M? are my predicted minutes for the next game, based on established minutes in the previous 4 tourney games, while also maximizing for the best team rating (optimal lineup).

Line of delineation appears to be after #27 Alex Poythress.  Everyone above this line has a HnI of 125 or better (25% “better” than the average D1 player) – every one of these players are truly capable of making a REAL impact in any given game at any time.  Case in point – Marcus Lee of Kentucky (#14 with a 134 HnI) seemingly coming out of nowhere in this tourney with all those put back dunks last game.

I am about certain Shabazz Napier at this moment is the #1 rated player in my national rankings.  I’ll update the final national rankings after the championship game.  Frank Kaminsky undoubtedly is top 5 nationally at the moment, and he still has a shot at #1 with two more great games and a championship.  It’ll be interesting.

Dan

The Stars of the 2014 NCAA Tourney

(EDIT 4/13: I realized I was using the seasonal playing time adjustment instead of the game playing time adjustment in calculating the PAOs, this has been fixed.  In some cases the results in the PDFs might be slightly different than what I wrote below, since the PDFs listed are the final Tourney results with the correct game formulas).

To answer this question, I once again do what I do – I rank EVERY player game from this tourney (all 1259 player games) and EVERY player overall (all 718 players) based on their tourney performances up to now – both in sheer dominance (PAOPoints Above Opponent) and in contribution to team wins and losses (PW & PLPlayer Win shares and Player Loss shares).

This isn’t your run-of-the-mill, let me name 10 guys or so that seemed to have some great games (ignoring many others) article – you can find those articles anywhere.  I rank every game, and I rank every guy – it’s what I do.  No stone left unturned.  It’s my thing.

To lead in, if this is your first introduction to my tourney player performance rankings – you might want to read my initial one after the Round of 32, where I explain much of what you’ll see.

Onto the rankings – first the ranking of ALL the NCAA tourney individual player games (PDF files ranking all 1259 player games):

 

All player games ranked by Player Wins (PW):2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankbyPW

Five different players so far this tourney have earned over 90% credit for leading their team to victory in a tourney game: Chassan Randle (0.91 PW in Stanford’s 5 point win over New Mexico in the Round of 64),  Lawrence Alexander (0.95 PW in NDSU’s 5 point OT victory over Oklahoma in the Round of 64), Julius Randle (0.998 PW in Kentucky’s 2 point win over Wichita State in the Round of 32), Shabazz Napier (0.92 PW in UConn’s 6 point win over MSU in the Elite 8), and Frank Kaminsky (a FULL 1.00 PW in Wisconsin’s 1 point OT squeaker over my beloved Arizona Wildcat’s in the Elite 8).

On the complete other end of the spectrum, Trevor Cooney is ranked #1259, having earned 56% of the blame for Syracuse’s 2 point loss to Dayton.  Cooney played 25 minutes, scored 2 points –  with 2 steals, 1 foul, and a 17% TS%.  #1258 is an Arizona Wildcat in the Elite 8 – combine that with the previously mentioned #1 – that Elite 8 game will haunt me for a while.

 

All player games ranked by Points Above Opponent (PAO):2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankbyPAO

These are the guys that just plain put up massive stats – often in blow out wins.

Not surprisingly, Adreian Payne’s 41 point, 8 rebound, 87% TS% performance versus Delaware ranks #1 with a 16.1 PAO.  MSU won that game by 15, so Adreian’s teammates were actually outplayed by Delaware, combining for a -1.1 PAO.

Amazingly, PAO rank #2 AND #3 belongs to players in a losing cause – Aaric Murray of Texas Southern scoring 38 with a 72% TS% in the 12 point play in loss to Cal Poly (Murray was 13.9 PAO, the rest of his teammates combined for a miserable -25.9 PAO), and Bryce Cotton of Providence scoring 36 with 8 assists and a 68% TS% in the two point Round of 64 loss to UNC.  Actually 6 of the top 11 PAO games were in losses – let’s just say Cleanthony Early of Wichita State, Dustin Hogue of Iowa State, Marcus Smart of OK State, and Quinn Cook of Duke shouldn’t be getting any blame for their respective teams’ tourney losses.

While 6 of the top 11 PAO games were in a losing cause – the next 18 top PAO games were in wins.

 

All player games ranked by Player Wins (PW) & sorted by team:2014NCAATourneyPlayerGmRankPWbyTeam

Just to make it easier to find the results of the player games of your favorite team.

 

Overall NCAA Tourney player rankings by Player Win differential (PW minus PL):2014NCAATourneyOverallRankbyPW

Shabazz Napier (dominant), Julius Randle (his rebounding dominance SO integral in UK’s nail biters), and Frank Kaminsky (7 foot do everything stud who freakin’ broke my heart) stand out.  One of those three almost certainly will be the 2014 NCAA tourney MOP.

 

Overall NCAA Tourney player rankings by Points Above Opponent (PAO):2014NCAATourneyOverallRankbyPAO

Jarnell Stokes and his 18.0 ppg, 12.8 rpg and 64% TS% in leading his team to the Elite 8 comes in #3 behind Napier and Kaminsky.

 

The overall Player Win differential rankings – sorted by team:2014NCAATourneyOverallPWRankbyTeam

Again, to make it easier to find all the results of your favorite player(s) and team(s).

 

Please, as usual, if you have ANY questions  or you like what I’m doing here (and maybe appreciate that I’m trying to offer information and complete results not seen anywhere else, especially from mainstream media) – comment below and/or hit me up a bunch  on Twitter.  Thanks!

Dan

The Ultimate Elite 8 Player Rankings

Sorry, didn’t have enough time to do a couple game write ups (been coaching my kids baseball games all day) – so I threw together something different.

I did my normal rankings of players in a PDF, but I added player percentile rankings for every player in every skillset based on all Elite 8 players.  100 would be the BEST at a given skillset among Elite 8 players, 0 the worst, and 50 would be average for an Elite 8 player.

So, if a player is a 90 in, say, rebounding (Alex Poythress of Kentucky is a 90 percentile rebounder), then he’s better at rebounding (all things considered – pace, SoS, etc) than 90% of all the Elite 8 players.  Actually, it’s better than 90% of all Elite 8 player minutes – since the % rank is weighted by minutes played (if 20 guys that played a total of, say, 200 minutes total all season rank if front of the first full time guy – the full time guy will probably still be 100.  If ONE full time ranks first at 100, the next will probably be around 98).  Anyway – if it seems complicated – just accept the first sentence of the paragraph as a good enough explanation and not worry about it.

AGAIN, these skillset breakdowns are after ALL adjustments – pace/SoS/qualityofteam/qualityofteamdefense/teambalance&qualityofbench/&more ALL factor in the ratings in some or all areas.  Now, while the individual player’s playing time (in relation to team quality/bench) IS a factor (& sometimes a fairly big one) in the overall rating, it’s isn’t much of a factor in the skillset ratings/rankings.  The skillset ratings are pretty much a “how good the guy is at a given skillset when playing” – ie per minute.

That being said – I included pretty much every guy in the following PDFs who played just 5% of available team minutes – so even when an low minute guy (say, Chris Walker of Florida) comes in a game, you’ll know what to expect from the guy (Chris Walker is a monster rebounder, shot blocker, and 2pt field goal scorer in his limited minutes – poor at everything else).

OK, here we go, 16 PDFs ranking 83 Elite 8 players in a multitude of ways:

(Guys in italics are LOW minute guys while guys in red are out due to injury)

Sorted by Overall rating: 2014Elite8PlayerRanking

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8PlayerRankByGame

 

Sorted by Scoring rating: 2014Elite8PlayerScoringRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8PlayerScoringRankByGame

 

Sorted by 2pt FG rating (scoring proficiency at 2pt range): 2014Elite8Player2ptRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8Player2ptRankByGame

 

Sorted by 3pt rating (scoring prociency at 3pt range): 2014Elite8Player3ptRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8Player3ptRankByGame

 

Sorted by Free Throw rating (getting to and converting from the line): 2014Elite8PlayerFTRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8PlayerFTRankByGame

 

Sorted by rebound rating: 2014Elite8PlayerReboundRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8PlayerReboundRankByGame

 

Sorted by Ball Handling rating (getting assists/not turning the ball over): 2014Elite8PlayerBallHandlingRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8Player3ptRankByGame

 

Sorted by Defensive Stops rating (getting blocks and steals, fouls are a negative): 2014Elite8PlayerDefStopsRank

Same ranking, sorted by each game match up: 2014Elite8PlayerDefStopsRankByGame

Please, if there are ANY questions – please feel free to comment below or hit me up on Twitter – or both.

Dan

Sweet 16: Michigan St. vs. Virginia

Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):

the NCAA Tourney player performance rankings,

the complete national player ratings/rankings (thru 3-25, 3064 players ranked),

a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,

and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups -  and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.

And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com/?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla GP HnI Mn/g Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Branden Dawson MSU Jr. 26 159 27.8 15.7 11.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.8 0.622
Adreian Payne MSU Sr. 29 156 27.7 23.9 10.5 1.8 0.6 1.2 3.0 0.609
Malcolm Brogdon Virginia So. 36 154 31.3 16.1 7.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 1.8 0.543
Gary Harris MSU So. 33 151 32.3 21.0 5.1 3.3 2.4 0.5 2.1 0.553
Joe Harris Virginia Sr. 36 142 28.7 16.5 4.1 3.1 1.3 0.3 1.8 0.563
Anthony Gill Virginia So. 36 141 19.8 17.6 8.2 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.2 0.607
Akil Mitchell Virginia Sr. 36 134 25.7 10.7 11.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 2.1 0.542
Kenny Kaminski MSU Fr. 29 131 12.6 16.3 4.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.693
Keith Appling MSU Sr. 33 131 31.7 14.8 3.9 5.8 1.6 0.5 2.6 0.544
Mike Tobey Virginia So. 36 130 18.3 14.2 8.4 0.7 0.5 2.4 2.1 0.507
Justin Anderson Virginia So. 36 130 21.5 14.8 6.0 2.8 0.7 1.4 2.6 0.513
Denzel Valentine MSU So. 36 129 29.0 11.1 8.2 5.3 1.3 0.5 2.4 0.506
London Perrantes Virginia Fr. 36 129 29.7 7.3 3.0 5.1 1.2 0.1 1.4 0.554
Matt Costello MSU So. 32 129 15.4 11.0 9.1 2.0 0.7 3.3 1.6 0.608
Travis Trice MSU Jr. 34 126 22.3 13.6 3.0 4.3 1.6 0.3 1.8 0.586
Darion Atkins Virginia Jr. 36 112 10.6 11.4 8.3 1.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 0.495
Evan Nolte Virginia So. 31 103 9.1 12.2 3.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 1.3 0.558
Alex Gauna MSU Jr. 29 81 7.1 8.9 7.2 1.2 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.517
Gavin Schilling MSU Fr. 36 79 6.5 9.0 10.0 1.5 0.0 1.4 3.4 0.546
Alvin Ellis III MSU Fr. 35 76 8.0 9.5 3.3 2.0 1.9 0.4 3.0 0.549
Russell Byrd MSU Jr. 23 55 7.6 5.9 5.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.433

Notice all the best players in every per 40 stat are Spartans?  Michigan State plays a much faster pace, are more efficient offensively, but aren’t nearly the defensive team Virginia is.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Player Team Cla M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Branden Dawson MSU Jr. 31 159 85 75 10 0 57 8 24
Adreian Payne MSU Sr. 30 156 126 60 33 33 46 -9 7
Malcolm Brogdon Virginia So. 37 154 91 30 36 26 36 21 13
Gary Harris MSU So. 38 151 99 33 28 38 23 13 23
Joe Harris Virginia Sr. 31 142 98 27 19 53 22 17 11
Anthony Gill Virginia So. 29 141 114 79 36 0 48 -14 6
Akil Mitchell Virginia Sr. 24 134 61 55 6 0 61 -1 16
Kenny Kaminski MSU Fr. 9 131 96 16 5 76 25 4 7
Keith Appling MSU Sr. 32 131 68 29 20 18 16 33 13
Mike Tobey Virginia So. 24 130 73 55 17 1 54 -15 17
Justin Anderson Virginia So. 21 130 78 33 26 18 33 4 14
Denzel Valentine MSU So. 32 129 46 16 10 21 36 30 9
London Perrantes Virginia Fr. 34 129 43 1 13 29 15 45 10
Matt Costello MSU So. 9 129 58 42 15 0 45 5 19
Travis Trice MSU Jr. 19 126 69 9 12 48 12 25 12
Darion Atkins Virginia Jr. 112 56 43 14 0 50 -15 13
Evan Nolte Virginia So. 103 72 15 21 36 17 -1 6
Alex Gauna MSU Jr. 81 38 40 0 -1 34 -1 -1
Gavin Schilling MSU Fr. 79 42 34 8 0 51 -15 -9
Alvin Ellis III MSU Fr. 76 44 20 9 15 15 -7 9
Russell Byrd MSU Jr. 55 18 6 0 12 23 -6 2

Remember how all the per 40 minute stats had a Spartan as the best?  Well, after pace, SoS (not really much a factor in this case though), and team defense adjustments are made – the ratings filter through all the noise.  Cavalier players are the best at four skillsets – including Mitchell in rebounding (despite lower reb/40 than Dawson) and Perrantes easily in handles/passing (despite lower ast/40 than Appling or Valentine).

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
MSU 141.8 82.5 37.6 18.6 26.3 32.6 15.0 15.0
Virginia 138.3 80.2 37.8 22.5 19.9 36.7 10.8 12.1

Believe it or not – Michigan State is more of the small ball team (better passing, better 3pt shooting, more steals), while Virginia is statistically the more hard nosed team (better rebounding, get to the line).

By the way, that defensive rating is just “stops” – steals and blocks (fouls included also) – NOT overall team defensive efficiency.  Team defense manifests itself in some of the other ratings, as well as an “intangibles” final adjustment not seen here (or any of the player tables above).  The intangibles here are -1.5 final adjustment to Virginia’s rating, -3.3 to MSU’s – almost all due to team defense.

Dan