The NCAA Championship – all the player ratings

This is a great match up – much better than we usually see in the NCAA Finals. It’s rare to get two of the three best teams in the nation in the final game – and these two teams are better than the majority of past 2nd & 3rd best teams the last 20 years by about any team ranking you’ll find. In fact, by the team ratings I use, you’d have to go back to 2008 and Kansas to find a team with a better final rating than either of these two teams have right now. To be fair, 2009 UNC, ’13 Louisville, ’12 Kentucky, & ’10 Duke are close.  The last 20 years of team ratings, Kentucky currently ranks 5th (behind ’98, ’99, ’01 Duke & ’96 Kentucky), this Duke team ranks 10th, Wisconsin 13th, and even Arizona comes in at 30th. That’s pretty salty in my book.

On to this game.

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common seasonal stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).

Overall player rank:
Player Team GP Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnI
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 38 33.5 18.7 8.1 2.7 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.625 202
Jahlil Okafor Duke 37 30.3 17.5 8.6 1.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 0.637 181
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 39 30.9 13.9 5.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.608 152
Justise Winslow Duke 38 29.0 12.7 6.4 2.1 1.3 0.8 1.8 0.571 150
Tyus Jones Duke 38 33.8 11.5 3.5 5.7 1.6 0.1 2.0 0.564 147
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 39 32.9 12.4 6.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.595 146
Quinn Cook Duke 38 35.8 15.6 3.3 2.7 1.0 0.0 1.2 0.609 141
Amile Jefferson Duke 38 21.3 6.2 5.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.611 135
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 39 32.9 6.8 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.629 133
Marshall Plumlee Duke 38 9.6 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.784 131
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 39 28.7 8.7 1.8 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.559 129
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 20 24.7 8.5 1.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 1.6 0.543 128
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 35 7.6 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.541 123
Grayson Allen Duke 34 8.9 4.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.561 122
Matt Jones Duke 38 21.7 6.2 2.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.528 122
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 37 16.1 4.7 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.500 108

The average Duke player has a rating of 144 (143.9), the average Wisconsin player 143 (143.3). Going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.  Frank Kaminsky became and stayed as the best player in the nation shortly after the out of conference schedule ended – when he passed Delon Wright of Utah for the top spot. Okafor has been battling Kentucky’s Towns all season for the top rated frosh spot.

Justise Winslow has seen his rating going up and up pretty much every week starting about half way through this season. His play in the last half of the season (and especially the tourney) has been exceptional.

NCAA Tourney Stats

Sorted by the seasonal HnI, same as above:

Player Team G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g To/g TS% HnIchg
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 5 37.4 22.2 8.8 2.2 0.4 0.8 2.2 0.638 2.1
Jahlil Okafor Duke 5 29.0 16.0 6.2 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.2 0.630 5.4
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 5 34.2 20.6 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.730 7.8
Justise Winslow Duke 5 31.2 15.0 9.4 3.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 0.658 12.3
Tyus Jones Duke 5 36.6 11.0 2.8 5.2 2.0 0.2 1.4 0.505 3.8
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 5 32.8 12.2 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 1.4 0.526 0.1
Quinn Cook Duke 5 36.6 15.0 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.615 5.2
Amile Jefferson Duke 5 17.8 3.0 4.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.600 3.2
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 5 35.4 6.4 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.727 2.8
Marshall Plumlee Duke 5 9.8 2.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.733 4.5
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 5 29.6 9.4 2.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.511 1.9
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 3 9.3 3.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.500 0.3
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 5 8.0 2.6 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.929 8.6
Grayson Allen Duke 5 10.0 3.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.429 -5.6
Matt Jones Duke 5 28.0 6.8 2.0 1.4 1.6 0.0 1.2 0.531 5.1
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 5 15.2 3.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.444 -2.4

HnIchg is the player’s change in HnI from the start of the NCAA Tourney to now. Obviously, Justise Winslow and Sam Dekker have seen the biggest gains in their seasonal ratings.  Kaminsky has been the best player in the nation – yet has been so good in the tourney he has found a way to still improve his rating.

Scoring rating:
Player Team RAT Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 145 33.5 22.4 0.625
Jahlil Okafor Duke 135 30.3 23.1 0.637
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 114 30.9 18.1 0.608
Quinn Cook Duke 97 35.8 17.4 0.609
Grayson Allen Duke 93 8.9 18.2 0.561
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 93 32.9 15.1 0.595
Justise Winslow Duke 91 29.0 17.4 0.571
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 76 24.7 13.7 0.543
Tyus Jones Duke 70 33.8 13.6 0.564
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 69 28.7 12.1 0.559
Amile Jefferson Duke 66 21.3 11.7 0.611
Marshall Plumlee Duke 65 9.6 9.5 0.784
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 60 7.6 10.9 0.541
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 57 16.1 11.8 0.500
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 54 32.9 8.3 0.629
Matt Jones Duke 53 21.7 11.4 0.528

The average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59.  Please note that all the following player stats in each skill set will be per 40 minutes (above is Pts/40) to offer better perspective.  Kaminsky and Okafor obviously stand out, although the next five players are obviously capable of making an scoring impact for stretches that can really change a game.

Rating from 2 point range:

 

Player Team RAT Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2pt%
Jahlil Okafor Duke 119 30.3 9.8 14.7 0.667
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 84 33.5 6.9 11.8 0.587
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 69 30.9 5.2 8.2 0.638
Amile Jefferson Duke 53 21.3 4.6 7.3 0.628
Marshall Plumlee Duke 47 9.6 3.4 4.3 0.795
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 43 32.9 3.9 7.1 0.546
Justise Winslow Duke 42 29.0 4.5 8.7 0.523
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 39 24.7 3.9 7.7 0.505
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 35 7.6 3.2 5.9 0.538
Quinn Cook Duke 26 35.8 2.8 5.2 0.534
Grayson Allen Duke 25 8.9 3.1 6.4 0.479
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 18 16.1 2.0 4.2 0.476
Tyus Jones Duke 17 33.8 2.6 5.9 0.437
Matt Jones Duke 15 21.7 2.1 4.7 0.448
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 12 28.7 1.8 4.2 0.420
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 11 32.9 0.9 1.5 0.596

Average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Okafor is the best in the nation in this specific rating break down.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team RAT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Grayson Allen Duke 38 8.9 5.3 6.4 0.833
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 37 33.5 4.7 6.1 0.778
Tyus Jones Duke 32 33.8 4.3 4.8 0.884
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 30 7.6 3.6 4.1 0.889
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 29 32.9 3.9 5.2 0.753
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 27 24.7 3.2 3.8 0.851
Quinn Cook Duke 21 35.8 2.9 3.2 0.891
Justise Winslow Duke 21 29.0 3.5 5.4 0.644
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 19 30.9 2.7 3.8 0.708
Jahlil Okafor Duke 16 30.3 3.5 6.9 0.513
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 16 28.7 2.0 2.4 0.821
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 16 32.9 1.9 2.3 0.827
Marshall Plumlee Duke 15 9.6 2.4 3.4 0.710
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 14 16.1 2.1 3.1 0.674
Amile Jefferson Duke 13 21.3 2.5 4.5 0.554
Matt Jones Duke 8 21.7 1.2 1.7 0.714

The FT rating for an average NCAA tourney team is 19. D1 average is 16. Grayson Allen doesn’t play much, but when he does he gets to the line and makes his free throws. Okafor gets to the line more than anyone, but his poor FT% hurts his rating quite a bit.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team RAT Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3pt%
Quinn Cook Duke 50 35.8 3.0 7.5 0.400
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 41 28.7 2.2 5.4 0.407
Matt Jones Duke 31 21.7 2.0 5.2 0.380
Grayson Allen Duke 30 8.9 2.3 6.6 0.340
Justise Winslow Duke 28 29.0 1.6 3.9 0.417
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 28 32.9 1.5 3.9 0.389
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 26 30.9 1.7 4.8 0.345
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 25 16.1 1.9 6.0 0.315
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 24 33.5 1.3 3.1 0.412
Tyus Jones Duke 21 33.8 1.4 3.8 0.372
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 20 32.9 1.2 3.0 0.381
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 10 24.7 0.9 3.0 0.297
Marshall Plumlee Duke 3 9.6 0.1 0.1 1.000
Jahlil Okafor Duke 0 30.3 0.0 0.0 -
Amile Jefferson Duke 0 21.3 0.0 0.0 -
Zak Showalter Wisconsin -5 7.6 0.3 2.1 0.143

NCAA tourney average here is 19, D1 average is 16. 11 guys here can change the game with a run of threes. Dekker went from pretty much D1 average here at the start of the tourney to over 60% “better” than D1 average after his tourney three point run.  That’s tough to do in just 5 games. He’s feeling “it”.

Rebound rating:
Player Team RAT Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Jahlil Okafor Duke 59 30.3 4.7 6.7 11.4
Amile Jefferson Duke 56 21.3 4.4 6.4 10.8
Marshall Plumlee Duke 53 9.6 4.3 5.8 10.1
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 49 33.5 1.8 7.9 9.7
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 43 32.9 2.7 5.0 7.7
Justise Winslow Duke 40 29.0 1.8 7.0 8.8
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 40 30.9 2.5 4.6 7.0
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 40 7.6 2.7 4.1 6.8
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 35 16.1 1.8 4.6 6.4
Matt Jones Duke 22 21.7 1.6 2.7 4.3
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 21 32.9 0.8 3.3 4.1
Grayson Allen Duke 21 8.9 1.2 3.2 4.4
Tyus Jones Duke 18 33.8 0.6 3.5 4.1
Quinn Cook Duke 16 35.8 0.4 3.3 3.7
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 13 28.7 0.7 1.8 2.5
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 12 24.7 0.2 2.4 2.6

NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team RAT Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Tyus Jones Duke 47 33.8 6.7 2.3
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 26 28.7 3.4 1.2
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 22 24.7 4.2 2.5
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 20 7.6 2.4 0.8
Quinn Cook Duke 17 35.8 3.0 1.4
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 17 32.9 2.1 0.7
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 16 33.5 3.2 1.9
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 12 32.9 2.5 1.6
Justise Winslow Duke 6 29.0 2.9 2.5
Matt Jones Duke 6 21.7 1.9 1.4
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 5 30.9 1.6 1.2
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 1 16.1 1.6 1.6
Grayson Allen Duke 0 8.9 1.9 2.0
Marshall Plumlee Duke -2 9.6 1.2 1.5
Amile Jefferson Duke -3 21.3 1.5 2.0
Jahlil Okafor Duke -13 30.3 1.7 3.3

NCAA Tourney team average here is 6, D1 average is 2. While Tyus Jones tends to facilitate Duke’s offense – everyone facilitates in Wisconsin’s offense.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team RAT Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 23 33.5 1.0 1.8 2.0
Justise Winslow Duke 20 29.0 1.8 1.1 3.8
Jahlil Okafor Duke 20 30.3 1.0 1.9 2.7
Tyus Jones Duke 18 33.8 1.8 0.1 1.4
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 15 24.7 1.5 0.2 2.1
Marshall Plumlee Duke 14 9.6 0.9 2.4 6.2
Matt Jones Duke 13 21.7 1.7 0.1 3.2
Amile Jefferson Duke 12 21.3 1.0 1.1 3.6
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 11 32.9 1.1 0.5 2.3
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 10 30.9 0.7 0.6 1.4
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 9 7.6 1.5 0.6 5.7
Quinn Cook Duke 8 35.8 1.1 0.0 2.2
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 7 32.9 0.9 0.2 2.7
Grayson Allen Duke 5 8.9 1.2 0.7 5.6
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 1 28.7 0.3 0.3 2.2
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 1 16.1 0.5 0.2 3.0

NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. Justise has been much better here the last half of the season – he currently is making the most all around defensive impact of anyone in this game.

The Prediction:

Now, as I mentioned earlier, the overall team ratings give Duke a slight advantage 143.9 to 143.3.  But, player rotations tighten come tourney time, and stars (like Kaminsky) tend to stay on the court more, changing the team rating.

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Player Team HnI M? HnI*Mn
Jahlil Okafor Duke 181 32 5780
Justise Winslow Duke 150 34 5097
Tyus Jones Duke 147 38 5602
Quinn Cook Duke 141 38 5369
Amile Jefferson Duke 135 14 1897
Marshall Plumlee Duke 131 7 915
Grayson Allen Duke 122 9 1100
Matt Jones Duke 122 28 3403
200 29163
Average (HnI*Mn/200) 145.8
Player Team HnI M? HnI*Mn
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 202 38 7658
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 152 35 5309
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 146 37 5412
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 133 36 4806
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 129 29 3743
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 128 7 898
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 123 5 614
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 108 13 1407
200 29847
Average (HnI*Mn/200) 149.2

I always get asked how to project games – so I included the work here to help people visualize.

Anyway, Ken Pomeroy has Wisconsin winning 70-69. Using the same projected overall game points and the projected team ratings we computed from predicted optimized player minutes, we get:

Wisconsin 149.2/(149.2+145.8)*139= 70.3

Duke 145.8/(145.8+149.2)*139= 68.7

Wisconsin wins what should be a GREAT game, 70.3 to 68.7.

Dan

Claiming Joy in the midst of Sorrow

This afternoon, my two boys (Ryan & Luke, 10 & 7) decided for the first time to sit and and actively watch an entire Arizona basketball game with me. They are usually so preoccupied with so many other things that they don’t last more than 10 minutes – but they sat and asked questions of me, cheered with me, and cared about Arizona winning for the ENTIRE game. I paused a ton to answer all their questions, it was my first time having my two boys care so much about something that really matters to their dad – and to be able to sit with me for well over two hours and take it all in. It was completely unexpected (I never asked them to do this), and it was glorious.

With every inconceivable Badger three made – we’d all yell “what?”. We wanted Kaminsky in foul trouble so bad – that with every whistle in which he was on the screen they’d ask “is that on Kaminsky?”. Both called every Arizona player by name as well as a few Badgers not even named Kaminsky 12 minutes into the game – reveling in the roller coaster ride of Elite 8 basketball. They both knew immediately Kaminsky “faked” a foul to get Zeus in foul trouble – even if the ref wasn’t smart enough to see it. We all cheered SO hard. Again, it was glorious.

Yet, we lost.

I ended that game with such a mixed bag of internalized emotion – the extent of which I have never felt before. Luke, my 7 year old, seeing TJ with 9 seconds left, hugged his mom hard while the tears streamed. Ryan, my 10 year old, didn’t say a word for 5 minutes – I could tell he was just trying to hold it together like I was. I BARELY held it together.

After a little time passed, after the UK & Notre Dame talk started on tv, my boys began to ask me why the Arizona players cried – why was it SO important to them even though Arizona will play again in November (I had told them early in the game whatever team lost would have their season and and wouldn’t start a new one until November). I had to explain how THAT group of guys would never get to play together again for their school for THAT coach. I had to explain how TJ McConnell had played his last game for a school and coach he loved, and that he would have to move on to play for someone else in the pros. I had to explain that most of the names they now somehow knew so well (so quickly) wouldn’t be back for Arizona – they would be moving on to play basketball for a living and for money. We ended the talk with me showing Allonzo Trier highlights to them, explaining that Arizona will have some new players to root for next season to root for along with some of the returnees (PJC is an early fav – they think it’s awesome he’s so short).

Today was so difficult for me – yet I know I experienced something on a personal level with my sons that we ALL will always remember and share. You always remember the first time you watched a whole game with your dad, you rooted hard, and you cried when the result didn’t go the way you had hoped. My first time was Georgetown/UNC championship in ’82 – I just decided I so badly wanted this small school to upset the big time program. I felt SO bad for Fred Brown when he made that unexplained pass right to Worthy that out of the blue the tears came. I remember vividly.

Today, my boys FELT it ALL with me. This was much bigger than Georgetown/UNC – my dad really didn’t care who won then, I just decided I cared. Today, my boys cared about this game more than anything because they knew it was important to their dad. I hugged and thanked my boys for caring so much and so hard with me. I am sad, but I’m going to claim MY joy from this shared experience with my sons. Now, when my sons and I celebrate that 2nd Arizona championship in the unforeseen future – it’ll be THAT much sweeter because of what we experienced today, together.

Beardown.

Dan

Sweet 16: Michigan State vs. Oklahoma

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
155 33 Buddy Hield Oklahoma 32.3 17.3 5.4 1.9 1.4 0.2 2.0 0.541 35
155 36 Branden Dawson Michigan State 29.9 12.1 9.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 0.543 34
152 56 Denzel Valentine Michigan State 33.1 14.2 6.1 4.4 0.9 0.2 2.4 0.579 37
147 80 Travis Trice Michigan State 33.2 15.0 3.1 5.1 1.1 0.2 1.8 0.515 39
142 123 Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 31.2 9.9 8.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.619 33
138 157 TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 29.5 11.4 6.5 1.5 0.6 1.5 1.9 0.549 36
135 191 Matt Costello Michigan State 20.7 7.2 5.4 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.601 29
128 297 Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 31.0 11.9 4.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 2.1 0.531 33
127 319 Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 31.9 9.3 3.6 3.9 1.6 0.1 2.3 0.503 35
125 351 Marvin Clark Michigan State 11.2 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.612 11
117 546 Bryn Forbes Michigan State 26.1 8.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.620 23
112 724 Gavin Schilling Michigan State 16.9 5.1 4.0 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.552 4
109 852 Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 11.8 1.9 3.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.435 8
106 981 Frank Booker Oklahoma 14.1 5.2 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.503 15
105 D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 8.0 2.0 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.509 3
91 1813 Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 19.7 2.2 1.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.388 17
79 2502 Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 10.6 3.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.447 2
69 Alvin Ellis Michigan State 8.7 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.419 6

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player. No superstars in this game – but we do have four top 80 players nationally (three of them Spartans), and 7 top 200 players featured in this match up.

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 112 32.3 21.5 0.541
Marvin Clark Michigan State 97 11.2 16.8 0.612
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 93 33.1 17.2 0.579
Travis Trice Michigan State 84 33.2 18.1 0.515
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 82 29.5 15.5 0.549
Branden Dawson Michigan State 81 29.9 16.2 0.543
Matt Costello Michigan State 79 20.7 13.9 0.601
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 78 26.1 13.4 0.620
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 78 31.0 15.3 0.531
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 77 31.2 12.6 0.619
Frank Booker Oklahoma 68 14.1 14.6 0.503
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 62 16.9 12.2 0.552
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 55 31.9 11.7 0.503
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 47 8.0 9.8 0.509
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 47 10.6 12.6 0.447
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 26 8.7 8.6 0.419
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 23 11.8 6.6 0.435
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 11 19.7 4.5 0.388

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. Buddy Hield ain’t shy – if he starts feeling it he can put up some points in a hurry.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Branden Dawson Michigan State 72 29.9 7.1 12.9 0.548
Matt Costello Michigan State 63 20.7 5.6 9.4 0.598
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 63 29.5 6.2 11.7 0.529
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 58 31.2 4.7 7.5 0.628
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 54 16.9 5.1 8.8 0.575
Marvin Clark Michigan State 53 11.2 4.2 6.2 0.677
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 35 8.0 3.8 7.5 0.500
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 32 32.3 3.9 8.5 0.466
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 23 10.6 3.0 6.7 0.450
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 22 33.1 2.9 6.1 0.467
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 19 31.0 3.2 7.9 0.411
Travis Trice Michigan State 19 33.2 3.2 7.7 0.416
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 19 11.8 2.8 6.5 0.429
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 16 26.1 1.7 3.3 0.513
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 15 31.9 2.6 6.4 0.405
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 10 8.7 1.8 4.3 0.407
Frank Booker Oklahoma 8 14.1 1.1 2.5 0.444
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 3 19.7 1.4 4.0 0.338

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 37 31.9 4.8 5.7 0.838
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 28 32.3 3.8 4.6 0.817
Travis Trice Michigan State 23 33.2 3.6 5.1 0.697
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 21 29.5 3.2 4.7 0.675
Frank Booker Oklahoma 19 14.1 2.6 3.1 0.824
Matt Costello Michigan State 17 20.7 2.7 4.0 0.680
Marvin Clark Michigan State 17 11.2 2.5 3.4 0.735
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 16 33.1 2.2 2.7 0.825
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 14 31.2 2.1 2.9 0.714
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 12 26.1 1.7 2.1 0.800
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 12 8.0 2.3 4.3 0.542
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 12 10.6 1.9 3.0 0.630
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 11 31.0 1.7 2.6 0.652
Branden Dawson Michigan State 9 29.9 2.0 4.0 0.505
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 8 8.7 2.2 4.9 0.452
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 8 16.9 2.0 4.4 0.463
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 6 19.7 1.3 2.5 0.523
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 5 11.8 1.0 2.0 0.526

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 55 33.1 3.1 7.4 0.418
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 51 32.3 3.3 9.1 0.361
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 50 26.1 2.8 6.4 0.430
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 48 31.0 2.4 5.3 0.453
Travis Trice Michigan State 42 33.2 2.7 7.3 0.372
Frank Booker Oklahoma 41 14.1 3.3 10.5 0.313
Marvin Clark Michigan State 27 11.2 2.0 5.9 0.339
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 12 10.6 1.6 5.9 0.264
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 8 8.7 1.0 3.5 0.273
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 4 31.2 0.4 1.2 0.303
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 3 31.9 0.6 2.4 0.246
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 2 19.7 0.2 0.6 0.300
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 0 8.0 0.0 0.0 -
Branden Dawson Michigan State 0 29.9 0.0 0.0 -
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 0 16.9 0.0 0.0 -
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma -1 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.000
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma -1 29.5 0.0 0.1 0.000
Matt Costello Michigan State -2 20.7 0.0 0.2 0.000

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Branden Dawson Michigan State 61 29.9 3.8 8.2 12.1
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 58 11.8 3.7 7.1 10.8
Matt Costello Michigan State 55 20.7 4.0 6.3 10.4
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 55 31.2 3.1 7.4 10.5
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 51 16.9 3.9 5.5 9.4
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 47 29.5 2.9 5.9 8.8
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 47 8.0 2.7 6.3 8.9
Marvin Clark Michigan State 42 11.2 2.9 5.2 8.1
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 35 32.3 2.0 4.7 6.7
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 34 33.1 1.4 6.0 7.4
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 30 31.0 1.3 4.7 6.0
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 21 31.9 0.6 3.9 4.5
Frank Booker Oklahoma 19 14.1 0.9 2.8 3.7
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 18 10.6 0.9 2.7 3.6
Travis Trice Michigan State 17 33.2 0.6 3.2 3.8
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 14 19.7 0.3 2.9 3.3
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 13 8.7 0.3 2.5 2.9
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 10 26.1 0.3 1.9 2.2

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Travis Trice Michigan State 45 33.2 6.2 2.1
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State 33 19.7 4.9 1.9
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 28 33.1 5.3 2.9
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 24 31.9 4.9 2.9
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 4 31.0 2.8 2.7
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 3 26.1 1.5 1.3
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 1 31.2 1.7 1.7
Branden Dawson Michigan State 1 29.9 2.4 2.5
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 1 32.3 2.4 2.5
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 1 8.7 2.5 2.7
Matt Costello Michigan State 0 20.7 1.5 1.6
Frank Booker Oklahoma -3 14.1 1.6 2.0
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma -3 11.8 0.9 1.3
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma -5 29.5 2.0 2.6
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma -8 10.6 2.0 3.0
Gavin Schilling Michigan State -11 16.9 0.9 2.1
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma -12 8.0 0.5 1.8
Marvin Clark Michigan State -16 11.2 0.9 2.6

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. Michigan State has three players who are very good passers in which to run offensive sets through – Oklahoma has one.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Branden Dawson Michigan State 29 29.9 1.6 2.1 2.7
Khadeem Lattin Oklahoma 23 11.8 1.2 3.1 6.8
TaShawn Thomas Oklahoma 20 29.5 0.8 2.0 2.8
Jordan Woodard Oklahoma 19 31.9 2.0 0.1 2.1
D.J. Bennett Oklahoma 18 8.0 0.7 3.4 7.5
Isaiah Cousins Oklahoma 17 31.0 1.6 0.5 2.4
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 17 32.3 1.7 0.3 2.2
Matt Costello Michigan State 17 20.7 0.8 2.5 5.1
Alvin Ellis Michigan State 16 8.7 1.9 0.8 5.1
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma 15 31.2 0.9 1.4 3.2
Travis Trice Michigan State 11 33.2 1.3 0.2 2.2
Frank Booker Oklahoma 10 14.1 1.5 0.4 4.0
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 8 33.1 1.1 0.3 2.7
Bryn Forbes Michigan State 7 26.1 1.0 0.2 2.3
Marvin Clark Michigan State 5 11.2 0.8 1.2 5.7
Dinjiyl Walker Oklahoma 4 10.6 1.3 0.3 5.8
Gavin Schilling Michigan State 2 16.9 0.5 1.6 6.7
Lourawls ‘Tum Tum` Nairn Michigan State -3 19.7 0.6 0.1 4.4

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. While Branden Dawson is extremely adept at creating real havoc on the defensive end – the Sooners have a number of athletes  blocking shots, getting steals, and taking names.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Michigan State 76.2 35.5 14.8 25.8 34.1 16.0 12.4 135.0
Oklahoma 76.9 34.4 21.3 21.2 36.7 3.8 17.3 133.4
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Finally, there’s a difference (albeit slight) in the prediction for this game between Ken Pomeroy and my compiled player ratings. Pomeroy has Oklahoma winning 68 to 67, while my ratings pretty much switch the scores – Michigan State winning by 0.8, 67.9 to 67.1.

Dan

Sweet 16: Duke vs. Utah

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
191 2 Delon Wright Utah 33.3 14.7 4.9 5.2 2.1 1.0 1.9 0.621 37
180 4 Jahlil Okafor Duke 30.3 18.1 8.7 1.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 0.646 33
147 79 Jakob Poeltl Utah 23.2 9.1 6.7 0.7 0.4 1.8 1.6 0.630 33
144 101 Tyus Jones Duke 33.4 11.4 3.5 5.8 1.5 0.1 2.0 0.570 34
142 117 Justise Winslow Duke 28.7 12.1 6.3 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.8 0.560 34
138 162 Quinn Cook Duke 35.7 15.8 3.3 2.7 1.1 0.0 1.3 0.616 38
135 195 Brandon Taylor Utah 30.0 10.5 2.5 3.4 1.2 0.0 1.6 0.620 37
133 213 Amile Jefferson Duke 21.7 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.614 23
131 248 Marshall Plumlee Duke 9.8 2.5 2.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.789 7
127 311 Jordan Loveridge Utah 26.0 10.2 4.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.599 35
123 Grayson Allen Duke 8.8 4.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.584 9
122 Kyle Kuzma Utah 8.3 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.531 9
120 462 Dakarai Tucker Utah 20.5 7.4 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.587 29
118 504 Brekkott Chapman Utah 14.9 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.579 3
117 566 Matt Jones Duke 21.3 5.9 2.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.521 22
115 637 Chris Reyes Utah 15.7 4.4 3.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.495 10
112 736 Dallin Bachynski Utah 12.5 3.9 2.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.581 0
93 1737 Isaiah Wright Utah 12.6 2.0 0.8 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.571 7

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.

The 2nd best player in the nation against the 4th. For the most part 10 players in this game ranked in the top 10% of all D1 players. We have probably at least 6 future NBA players in this game. Not too shabby for a match up of teams that doesn’t include Kentucky or Arizona.

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Jahlil Okafor Duke 136 30.3 23.8 0.646
Delon Wright Utah 104 33.3 17.6 0.621
Quinn Cook Duke 96 35.7 17.8 0.616
Jakob Poeltl Utah 94 23.2 15.7 0.630
Grayson Allen Duke 94 8.8 18.4 0.584
Jordan Loveridge Utah 89 26.0 15.7 0.599
Brekkott Chapman Utah 84 14.9 15.4 0.579
Brandon Taylor Utah 83 30.0 14.0 0.620
Justise Winslow Duke 82 28.7 16.9 0.560
Kyle Kuzma Utah 81 8.3 16.5 0.531
Dakarai Tucker Utah 81 20.5 14.4 0.587
Dallin Bachynski Utah 69 12.5 12.5 0.581
Tyus Jones Duke 68 33.4 13.7 0.570
Marshall Plumlee Duke 67 9.8 10.0 0.789
Amile Jefferson Duke 66 21.7 12.2 0.614
Chris Reyes Utah 50 15.7 11.2 0.495
Matt Jones Duke 49 21.3 11.1 0.521
Isaiah Wright Utah 34 12.6 6.4 0.571

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. That means 11 of the players listed above, all things considered, are a better combination of scoring proficiency and efficiency than the average Sweet 16 player. Albeit three of them are low minute guys – but still.

Okafor is a scoring machine from the post – which leads us to….

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Jahlil Okafor Duke 120 30.3 10.1 14.9 0.677
Jakob Poeltl Utah 84 23.2 6.4 9.3 0.695
Amile Jefferson Duke 53 21.7 4.8 7.6 0.632
Delon Wright Utah 51 33.3 4.8 8.4 0.565
Marshall Plumlee Duke 48 9.8 3.6 4.5 0.795
Kyle Kuzma Utah 42 8.3 4.0 7.2 0.556
Dallin Bachynski Utah 42 12.5 4.2 7.7 0.538
Justise Winslow Duke 40 28.7 4.5 8.6 0.526
Chris Reyes Utah 34 15.7 4.2 8.9 0.471
Brekkott Chapman Utah 32 14.9 3.8 7.8 0.485
Quinn Cook Duke 26 35.7 2.8 5.1 0.544
Grayson Allen Duke 25 8.8 2.9 5.7 0.513
Dakarai Tucker Utah 24 20.5 2.1 3.6 0.589
Tyus Jones Duke 16 33.4 2.5 5.7 0.440
Matt Jones Duke 12 21.3 2.0 4.7 0.425
Brandon Taylor Utah 12 30.0 1.5 3.2 0.463
Jordan Loveridge Utah 11 26.0 1.9 4.8 0.405
Isaiah Wright Utah 0 12.6 0.4 1.3 0.308

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Okafor has been the best in the nation here all season, he’s just so skilled at scoring around the basket. That being said, Poeltl is no slouch himself and may make Okafor work more than normal on the defensive end.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Delon Wright Utah 40 33.3 5.3 6.4 0.834
Grayson Allen Duke 35 8.8 5.0 5.9 0.850
Tyus Jones Duke 30 33.4 4.2 4.7 0.884
Dallin Bachynski Utah 25 12.5 3.9 5.6 0.690
Brekkott Chapman Utah 23 14.9 3.3 4.3 0.764
Jordan Loveridge Utah 21 26.0 2.7 3.1 0.873
Quinn Cook Duke 19 35.7 2.6 2.9 0.891
Dakarai Tucker Utah 17 20.5 2.3 2.9 0.818
Justise Winslow Duke 17 28.7 3.1 5.1 0.612
Kyle Kuzma Utah 17 8.3 3.2 5.8 0.556
Jahlil Okafor Duke 16 30.3 3.7 7.1 0.516
Marshall Plumlee Duke 15 9.8 2.4 3.4 0.724
Brandon Taylor Utah 13 30.0 1.7 2.0 0.846
Amile Jefferson Duke 13 21.7 2.6 4.7 0.556
Chris Reyes Utah 12 15.7 2.4 4.4 0.542
Isaiah Wright Utah 12 12.6 1.7 2.2 0.773
Jakob Poeltl Utah 11 23.2 2.9 6.4 0.451
Matt Jones Duke 8 21.3 1.2 1.7 0.742

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16. I’m guessing Utah’s Coach K will be wanting Wright to take it to the hole at Okafor at every possible opportunity and get himself to the line at the big man’s expense – while Duke’s Coach K will be hoping his kids will slide in there and get a cheap offensive foul or two called on poor Delon and protect their guy.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Brandon Taylor Utah 58 30.0 3.1 7.1 0.439
Jordan Loveridge Utah 58 26.0 3.0 6.7 0.449
Quinn Cook Duke 52 35.7 3.2 7.9 0.407
Dakarai Tucker Utah 39 20.5 2.6 7.2 0.360
Grayson Allen Duke 34 8.8 2.5 7.1 0.354
Matt Jones Duke 30 21.3 2.0 5.2 0.381
Brekkott Chapman Utah 29 14.9 1.5 3.3 0.452
Justise Winslow Duke 25 28.7 1.6 4.0 0.400
Kyle Kuzma Utah 23 8.3 1.8 5.4 0.324
Isaiah Wright Utah 22 12.6 1.3 3.2 0.406
Tyus Jones Duke 22 33.4 1.5 3.9 0.381
Delon Wright Utah 14 33.3 0.9 2.5 0.361
Chris Reyes Utah 4 15.7 0.1 0.2 0.667
Marshall Plumlee Duke 3 9.8 0.1 0.1 1.000
Dallin Bachynski Utah 2 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.500
Jahlil Okafor Duke 0 30.3 0.0 0.0 -
Amile Jefferson Duke 0 21.7 0.0 0.0 -
Jakob Poeltl Utah 0 23.2 0.0 0.1 0.000

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. This game could easily hinge on how well Utah’s three deadly sharp shooters – Taylor, Loveridge, and Tucker – fair from range.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Jakob Poeltl Utah 62 23.2 4.5 7.1 11.6
Jahlil Okafor Duke 58 30.3 4.9 6.6 11.5
Amile Jefferson Duke 54 21.7 4.3 6.4 10.8
Marshall Plumlee Duke 52 9.8 4.5 5.6 10.1
Chris Reyes Utah 47 15.7 2.8 6.4 9.3
Kyle Kuzma Utah 41 8.3 1.6 7.2 8.8
Dallin Bachynski Utah 39 12.5 2.2 5.5 7.7
Justise Winslow Duke 38 28.7 1.8 7.0 8.7
Brekkott Chapman Utah 33 14.9 2.4 3.8 6.2
Delon Wright Utah 28 33.3 1.1 4.8 5.9
Jordan Loveridge Utah 27 26.0 0.7 5.5 6.2
Matt Jones Duke 22 21.3 1.8 2.7 4.4
Dakarai Tucker Utah 21 20.5 0.8 3.7 4.6
Grayson Allen Duke 19 8.8 1.2 2.9 4.1
Tyus Jones Duke 18 33.4 0.6 3.6 4.2
Quinn Cook Duke 15 35.7 0.4 3.3 3.7
Brandon Taylor Utah 14 30.0 0.2 3.1 3.3
Isaiah Wright Utah 11 12.6 0.3 2.2 2.5

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28. If Poeltl stays out of foul trouble, Utah has a chance to hang with Duke on the boards.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Tyus Jones Duke 46 33.4 6.9 2.4
Delon Wright Utah 43 33.3 6.2 2.3
Isaiah Wright Utah 33 12.6 5.6 2.7
Brandon Taylor Utah 27 30.0 4.5 2.1
Quinn Cook Duke 17 35.7 3.1 1.4
Justise Winslow Duke 7 28.7 3.1 2.5
Matt Jones Duke 6 21.3 1.9 1.4
Kyle Kuzma Utah 4 8.3 3.0 2.9
Grayson Allen Duke 2 8.8 2.1 2.1
Marshall Plumlee Duke -1 9.8 1.3 1.5
Dakarai Tucker Utah -2 20.5 1.2 1.5
Amile Jefferson Duke -3 21.7 1.6 2.1
Chris Reyes Utah -4 15.7 1.2 1.7
Jordan Loveridge Utah -4 26.0 1.5 2.1
Dallin Bachynski Utah -8 12.5 0.6 1.4
Jahlil Okafor Duke -12 30.3 1.9 3.3
Jakob Poeltl Utah -15 23.2 1.2 2.8
Brekkott Chapman Utah -15 14.9 1.0 2.7

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. The Delon Wright and Tyus Jones match up should be fun. Unrelated note – Okafor and Poeltl turn the ball over too much, expect double teams.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Delon Wright Utah 34 33.3 2.5 1.2 1.6
Jakob Poeltl Utah 22 23.2 0.6 3.1 4.2
Justise Winslow Duke 20 28.7 1.9 1.1 3.8
Jahlil Okafor Duke 19 30.3 1.0 1.9 2.7
Tyus Jones Duke 17 33.4 1.8 0.1 1.3
Brandon Taylor Utah 14 30.0 1.6 0.0 1.9
Marshall Plumlee Duke 14 9.8 0.9 2.4 6.3
Amile Jefferson Duke 12 21.7 1.1 1.2 3.6
Chris Reyes Utah 12 15.7 0.6 1.6 3.5
Matt Jones Duke 10 21.3 1.6 0.2 3.2
Brekkott Chapman Utah 10 14.9 1.3 1.1 5.9
Dakarai Tucker Utah 8 20.5 0.8 0.6 2.3
Quinn Cook Duke 8 35.7 1.2 0.0 2.2
Jordan Loveridge Utah 7 26.0 0.9 0.3 2.6
Grayson Allen Duke 7 8.8 1.3 0.7 5.7
Dallin Bachynski Utah 5 12.5 1.0 1.1 6.1
Isaiah Wright Utah -3 12.6 0.3 0.3 3.8
Kyle Kuzma Utah -4 8.3 0.2 0.8 5.1

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10.

Delon Wright gets tons of steals, he blocks shots, and yet he somehow almost never fouls. He has elite point guard skills. He’s long, and extremely efficient at everything. He makes it all look so easy. This MIGHT be his coming out party to the entire nation  – IF he can muster up some of the “alpha male” that he sometimes seems to lack and take over.

Or, he might go 14/4/4 on 10 shots as Utah loses by three.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Duke 85.9 44.6 18.5 22.8 33.3 10.7 14.1 142.8
Utah 86.1 34.9 19.7 31.5 31.0 10.4 15.4 140.3
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

The two highest team ratings of all of today’s teams – and they happen to be playing against each other. Go figure. Duke will get in done offensively in the post with Okafor, Utah more from three. Duke should have the rebounding advantage.

Ken Pomeroy Has Duke winning 67-66. True to form with the other games today – my compiled ratings come up with pretty much the same spread – Duke by 1.2, 67.1 to 65.9.

Dan

Sweet 16: Louisville vs. NC State

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
163 19 Montrezl Harrell Louisville 34.8 15.4 9.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 2.0 0.579 38
157 30 Terry Rozier Louisville 34.6 17.2 5.2 3.0 2.0 0.1 2.2 0.515 39
144 98 Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 35.8 15.7 4.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 1.9 0.552 38
129 275 Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 31.6 12.3 3.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 2.1 0.536 36
125 352 Wayne Blackshear Louisville 31.1 11.1 4.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.522 40
120 453 Kyle Washington North Carolina State 18.0 6.7 4.2 0.5 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.494 19
119 478 BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 19.3 4.5 4.3 0.2 0.1 2.6 1.1 0.596 20
119 490 Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 18.4 3.1 4.7 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.586 19
119 494 Ralston Turner North Carolina State 31.4 12.8 3.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 1.1 0.546 35
117 563 Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 18.8 6.4 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.498 20
110 783 Mangok Mathiang Louisville 17.8 2.5 4.6 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.405 23
107 916 Caleb Martin North Carolina State 16.9 4.9 2.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.484 7
107 938 Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 19.5 3.6 5.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.459 20
103 Jaylen Johnson Louisville 4.7 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.474 6
100 Anas Mahmoud Louisville 8.1 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.565 9
99 Desmond Lee North Carolina State 7.9 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.484 5
93 1685 Quentin Snider Louisville 15.0 3.8 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.441 26

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player. Harrell and Rozier are top 30 players nationally, Lacey is top 100. If Chris Jones were still with Louisville, he’d be just above Lacey here with a 145 HnI, 95th nationally.

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 104 34.8 17.8 0.579
Terry Rozier Louisville 100 34.6 19.9 0.515
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 96 35.8 17.5 0.552
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 89 31.4 16.4 0.546
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 82 31.6 15.5 0.536
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 73 31.1 14.3 0.522
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 69 18.0 14.8 0.494
Desmond Lee North Carolina State 65 7.9 14.4 0.484
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 64 18.8 13.6 0.498
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 56 19.3 9.4 0.596
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 52 16.9 11.5 0.484
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 46 4.7 10.5 0.474
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 40 18.4 6.7 0.586
Quentin Snider Louisville 38 15.0 10.0 0.441
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 34 8.1 5.9 0.565
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 30 19.5 7.5 0.459
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 17 17.8 5.7 0.405

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. NC State, honestly, has three Louisville players to stop. That’s it. Try to score some points, stop 3 guys.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 80 34.8 6.6 11.0 0.600
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 48 18.8 5.2 10.5 0.491
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 46 18.0 5.8 12.9 0.453
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 45 19.3 3.7 6.0 0.608
Terry Rozier Louisville 45 34.6 5.3 11.3 0.468
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 36 31.6 4.3 9.3 0.466
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 36 18.4 2.9 4.8 0.611
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 32 4.7 4.3 9.7 0.440
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 31 35.8 3.6 7.5 0.476
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 24 19.5 3.0 6.7 0.450
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 23 31.1 2.5 5.3 0.482
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 22 8.1 2.2 4.2 0.520
Desmond Lee North Carolina State 19 7.9 3.4 8.4 0.400
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 16 31.4 2.0 4.5 0.455
Quentin Snider Louisville 12 15.0 2.2 5.6 0.394
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 12 16.9 1.8 4.4 0.415
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 9 17.8 2.0 5.4 0.377

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. It’s Harrell, then everybody else.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Desmond Lee North Carolina State 55 7.9 7.1 8.8 0.809
Terry Rozier Louisville 35 34.6 4.6 5.8 0.784
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 30 31.6 4.1 5.6 0.733
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 22 34.8 3.6 6.1 0.594
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 22 35.8 3.0 4.0 0.738
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 21 31.1 2.9 3.8 0.760
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 20 16.9 2.8 3.9 0.719
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 19 31.4 2.4 2.9 0.838
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 16 18.8 3.0 5.6 0.543
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 12 18.0 1.7 2.4 0.714
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 11 8.1 1.5 2.0 0.750
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 11 19.3 2.0 3.6 0.557
Quentin Snider Louisville 9 15.0 1.4 2.4 0.600
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 8 17.8 1.6 3.2 0.500
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 7 19.5 1.4 2.9 0.500
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 4 18.4 0.9 2.0 0.467
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 2 4.7 0.8 1.9 0.400

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16. Desmond Lee plays very little, can’t score from the field or from three point range – but MAN he can draw fouls, get to the line, and convert. But, ignoring the 5 minutes or so Lee might play – Rozier and Barber are the guys here. Harrell would be if he made his free throws at a better than 59% clip.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 53 31.4 3.3 9.0 0.363
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 43 35.8 2.5 6.3 0.389
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 29 31.1 2.1 6.5 0.324
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 20 16.9 1.7 5.5 0.305
Terry Rozier Louisville 20 34.6 1.6 5.2 0.309
Quentin Snider Louisville 17 15.0 1.4 4.6 0.305
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 16 31.6 0.9 2.4 0.385
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 12 4.7 0.4 0.4 1.000
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 11 18.0 0.5 0.9 0.538
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 2 34.8 0.3 1.3 0.243
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 0 8.1 0.0 0.0 -
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 0 19.3 0.0 0.0 -
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 0 17.8 0.0 0.0 -
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 0 19.5 0.0 0.0 -
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 0 18.4 0.0 0.0 -
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 0 18.8 0.1 0.3 0.200
Desmond Lee North Carolina State -9 7.9 0.2 2.1 0.091

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. Louisville is very three point challenged. If Turner and/or Lacey start lighting it up from the three point line – NC State could easily snatch a victory.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 65 19.5 4.1 7.6 11.7
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 64 4.7 4.7 6.2 10.9
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 63 17.8 5.1 5.1 10.3
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 60 18.4 4.5 5.7 10.2
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 59 34.8 3.7 6.9 10.6
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 58 18.8 4.1 6.0 10.1
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 50 19.3 3.3 5.6 8.9
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 49 18.0 2.7 6.6 9.3
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 40 8.1 2.9 4.1 6.9
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 35 16.9 1.8 4.9 6.7
Terry Rozier Louisville 31 34.6 1.4 4.7 6.1
Desmond Lee North Carolina State 30 7.9 2.1 3.2 5.2
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 29 31.1 1.3 4.4 5.7
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 25 35.8 0.8 4.3 5.1
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 22 31.6 1.1 3.1 4.2
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 21 31.4 0.8 3.4 4.2
Quentin Snider Louisville 19 15.0 0.5 3.4 3.9

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 25 31.6 4.7 2.7
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 21 35.8 3.9 2.2
Quentin Snider Louisville 14 15.0 3.3 2.2
Terry Rozier Louisville 12 34.6 3.4 2.6
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 3 31.1 1.5 1.4
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 3 16.9 1.7 1.6
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 0 31.4 1.2 1.3
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State -2 19.5 1.1 1.3
Anas Mahmoud Louisville -4 8.1 1.9 2.4
Desmond Lee North Carolina State -6 7.9 2.2 3.0
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State -6 18.8 1.3 2.1
Mangok Mathiang Louisville -6 17.8 1.0 1.7
Montrezl Harrell Louisville -8 34.8 1.4 2.3
Kyle Washington North Carolina State -10 18.0 1.0 2.1
Jaylen Johnson Louisville -16 4.7 0.8 2.3
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville -16 18.4 1.3 2.9
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State -19 19.3 0.5 2.3

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. There isn’t a “true” point guard in this game – which may not bode well for NC State against the Louisville pressure.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
BeeJay Anya North Carolina State 34 19.3 0.2 5.3 5.7
Chinanu Onuaku Louisville 31 18.4 1.7 2.8 5.1
Mangok Mathiang Louisville 26 17.8 1.2 2.9 5.4
Anas Mahmoud Louisville 24 8.1 0.7 3.4 5.1
Terry Rozier Louisville 24 34.6 2.3 0.2 2.0
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 19 34.8 1.1 1.4 2.5
Kyle Washington North Carolina State 15 18.0 0.5 2.5 4.6
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 15 31.1 1.4 0.8 3.2
Caleb Martin North Carolina State 9 16.9 0.7 0.8 2.6
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State 9 35.8 1.0 0.2 1.7
Jaylen Johnson Louisville 9 4.7 1.6 1.2 7.8
Desmond Lee North Carolina State 6 7.9 1.7 0.0 5.4
Anthony ‘Cat` Barber North Carolina State 6 31.6 1.0 0.0 2.5
Ralston Turner North Carolina State 4 31.4 0.8 0.2 3.0
Quentin Snider Louisville 2 15.0 0.9 0.0 3.1
Abdul-Malik Abu North Carolina State 1 18.8 0.3 1.1 4.8
Lennard Freeman North Carolina State 0 19.5 0.5 0.4 3.6

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. Now, the question is, what will happen first – Anya will get two blocks on Harrell, or Harrell will get two fouls called on Anya. Either could happen two minutes into the game.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Louisville 67.4 36.5 18.2 12.6 42.3 0.4 18.9 130.4
NC State 73.7 32.3 19.5 22.0 36.2 4.9 8.9 123.4
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Louisville is a limited team offensively, period. But, they defend and create havoc. NC State isn’t particularly elite offensively, so this game will probably be very ugly. Don’t mind the ultra high rebound and defensive stops rating here for Louisville – with Chris Jones out of the picture, the lineup optimization is giving more minutes to Louisville bigs than they probably will actually play. Louisville should win the battle of the boards, but probably not as much as that higher rating would signify.

Speaking of Chris Jones, I didn’t include his ratings so it wouldn’t confuse people – he is top 100 nationally with a 145 HnI. When he was kicked off the team, it weakened them. While Louisville should win this game, I can’t imagine them going much further.

As for this game, Ken Pomeroy has Louisville winning 66-63. Compiling the player ratings, I get a very similar result using the same game points total: Louisville by 3.5, 66.3 to 62.7.

Dan

Sweet 16: Gonzaga vs. UCLA

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
171 9 Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 27.3 17.1 6.1 1.9 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.646 31
143 110 Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 21.8 9.7 7.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.674 27
141 132 Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 33.4 11.8 2.7 4.9 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.636 40
139 147 Kevon Looney UCLA 30.9 11.6 9.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.528 32
139 153 Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 24.4 10.9 5.7 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 0.600 26
137 Angel Nunez Gonzaga 6.7 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.644 1
133 215 Byron Wesley Gonzaga 26.6 10.5 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.568 20
132 235 Bryce Alford UCLA 36.3 15.6 3.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 2.5 0.555 39
130 267 Norman Powell UCLA 34.4 16.4 4.7 2.1 1.9 0.4 2.2 0.540 39
126 342 Gary Bell Gonzaga 27.8 8.4 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.555 28
126 344 Tony Parker UCLA 24.6 11.4 6.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.553 30
118 525 Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 17.2 4.1 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.595 18
115 609 Isaac Hamilton UCLA 33.9 10.6 3.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 0.515 37
106 980 Thomas Welsh UCLA 15.8 3.9 3.8 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.477 12
98 Eric McClellan Gonzaga 8.2 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.500 9
74 2667 Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 10.9 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.517 8
70 2742 Noah Allen UCLA 11.6 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.356 3

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.

Wiltjer is a top 10 player nationally, no one else is top 100. So, we have one great college player, and then a bunch of good to very good players in this game. Nunez is one of those guys who rarely plays but would star at a lesser program – he’s listed because my lineup optimization had him projected for one big minute this game. Ratings for small sample sizes like his are very noisy though – I am not saying he’s a better player than any UCLA guy not named Looney – although he’d sure as heck would get a ton more run is he played for the Bruins.

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 138 27.3 25.0 0.646
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 102 21.8 17.8 0.674
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 97 6.7 17.6 0.644
Tony Parker UCLA 92 24.6 18.5 0.553
Norman Powell UCLA 92 34.4 19.1 0.540
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 92 24.4 17.9 0.600
Bryce Alford UCLA 86 36.3 17.2 0.555
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 77 33.4 14.2 0.636
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 76 26.6 15.8 0.568
Kevon Looney UCLA 71 30.9 15.1 0.528
Gary Bell Gonzaga 57 27.8 12.1 0.555
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 56 33.9 12.5 0.515
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 48 17.2 9.5 0.595
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 39 8.2 9.8 0.500
Thomas Welsh UCLA 39 15.8 9.8 0.477
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 23 10.9 5.0 0.517
Noah Allen UCLA 7 11.6 4.7 0.356

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. Wiltjer is an elite college shooter and scorer.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 80 24.4 7.6 12.4 0.615
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 79 21.8 6.9 10.2 0.675
Tony Parker UCLA 71 24.6 7.2 13.0 0.549
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 67 27.3 6.7 11.5 0.583
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 61 6.7 5.1 7.2 0.710
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 49 26.6 5.3 9.5 0.555
Norman Powell UCLA 49 34.4 5.5 10.9 0.508
Kevon Looney UCLA 37 30.9 4.6 9.7 0.477
Thomas Welsh UCLA 33 15.8 4.4 9.5 0.466
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 21 17.2 2.1 3.6 0.582
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 16 33.9 2.6 6.0 0.425
Bryce Alford UCLA 13 36.3 2.4 6.0 0.407
Gary Bell Gonzaga 13 27.8 1.7 3.6 0.473
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 12 33.4 1.7 3.5 0.476
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 10 10.9 1.4 3.1 0.448
Noah Allen UCLA 4 11.6 1.1 2.9 0.379
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 4 8.2 1.5 4.3 0.357

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Gonzaga is one of those rare overall great shooting teams who can do massive damage in the paint. Parker and Looney have their work cut out for them trying to hold Karnowski and Sabonis in check.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Norman Powell UCLA 28 34.4 4.2 5.6 0.751
Bryce Alford UCLA 27 36.3 3.7 4.4 0.844
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 23 26.6 4.1 6.2 0.664
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 23 21.8 4.0 5.9 0.672
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 22 6.7 3.9 6.0 0.654
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 22 27.3 3.4 4.2 0.798
Tony Parker UCLA 22 24.6 4.2 7.5 0.566
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 20 8.2 4.0 6.7 0.591
Kevon Looney UCLA 19 30.9 3.4 5.4 0.628
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 19 33.4 2.9 3.5 0.827
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 16 17.2 2.5 3.0 0.809
Gary Bell Gonzaga 12 27.8 2.0 2.7 0.735
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 10 24.4 2.5 5.0 0.505
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 9 33.9 1.5 2.2 0.688
Noah Allen UCLA 6 11.6 1.4 2.7 0.519
Thomas Welsh UCLA 6 15.8 1.0 1.7 0.609
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA -1 10.9 0.2 1.0 0.222

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 49 27.3 2.7 5.7 0.479
Bryce Alford UCLA 46 36.3 2.9 7.3 0.392
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 46 33.4 2.7 5.9 0.449
Gary Bell Gonzaga 32 27.8 2.2 5.8 0.377
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 32 33.9 2.0 5.0 0.392
Norman Powell UCLA 15 34.4 1.3 4.0 0.319
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 15 8.2 0.9 2.1 0.429
Kevon Looney UCLA 14 30.9 0.8 1.9 0.431
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 14 6.7 1.2 3.5 0.333
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 14 10.9 0.7 1.2 0.545
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 12 17.2 1.0 2.9 0.333
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 3 26.6 0.4 1.3 0.290
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 1 24.4 0.0 0.0 1.000
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 0 21.8 0.0 0.0 -
Tony Parker UCLA 0 24.6 0.0 0.0 -
Thomas Welsh UCLA 0 15.8 0.0 0.0 -
Noah Allen UCLA -4 11.6 0.4 2.5 0.160

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. Any of the top 5 listed here can greatly impact this game from range if they let loose and get hot.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Kevon Looney UCLA 61 30.9 4.4 7.5 12.0
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 60 21.8 4.0 9.1 13.1
Tony Parker UCLA 56 24.6 4.3 6.5 10.8
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 52 6.7 3.0 8.8 11.8
Thomas Welsh UCLA 50 15.8 3.8 5.9 9.7
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 43 24.4 3.0 6.4 9.4
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 39 27.3 2.0 7.0 8.9
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 31 26.6 1.8 5.2 7.0
Noah Allen UCLA 31 11.6 1.9 4.4 6.3
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 27 17.2 1.9 3.8 5.8
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 25 10.9 0.9 4.9 5.7
Norman Powell UCLA 23 34.4 0.7 4.8 5.4
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 19 33.9 1.2 2.7 3.9
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 18 8.2 1.2 2.7 4.0
Bryce Alford UCLA 14 36.3 0.2 3.3 3.5
Gary Bell Gonzaga 14 27.8 0.4 3.2 3.6
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 13 33.4 0.5 2.7 3.2

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28. Gonzaga’s only strong rebounder is Sabonis. UCLA needs Looney and Parker to dominate the boards – as well as match up defensively with Karnowski and Sabonis in the post, as mentioned earlier.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 42 33.4 5.9 1.6
Bryce Alford UCLA 29 36.3 5.4 2.8
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 27 8.2 4.0 1.2
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 19 17.2 3.9 2.1
Gary Bell Gonzaga 16 27.8 2.9 1.3
Noah Allen UCLA 15 11.6 3.2 2.0
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 12 33.9 3.8 2.8
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 11 26.6 3.5 2.5
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 11 27.3 2.7 1.7
Kevon Looney UCLA 3 30.9 1.9 1.7
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 3 10.9 2.1 2.0
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 3 6.7 3.5 3.5
Norman Powell UCLA 1 34.4 2.5 2.6
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga -4 24.4 2.1 2.8
Thomas Welsh UCLA -6 15.8 0.6 1.2
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga -9 21.8 1.6 2.8
Tony Parker UCLA -18 24.6 0.7 2.7

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. Kevin Pangos runs the show for Gonzaga, and he does it well.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Norman Powell UCLA 20 34.4 2.2 0.4 3.0
Thomas Welsh UCLA 19 15.8 1.0 2.7 5.9
Kevon Looney UCLA 18 30.9 1.7 1.1 3.8
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 14 24.4 0.9 1.7 3.5
Byron Wesley Gonzaga 14 26.6 1.5 0.5 2.4
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 12 33.4 1.5 0.1 2.3
Kyle Dranginis Gonzaga 11 17.2 1.4 0.9 4.7
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga 9 27.3 0.7 0.9 2.4
Bryce Alford UCLA 8 36.3 1.1 0.0 1.6
Gyorgy Goloman UCLA 8 10.9 1.4 1.1 6.7
Tony Parker UCLA 8 24.6 0.9 1.5 5.7
Angel Nunez Gonzaga 8 6.7 0.7 1.8 5.8
Gary Bell Gonzaga 7 27.8 1.3 0.2 3.4
Isaac Hamilton UCLA 7 33.9 1.1 0.2 2.7
Eric McClellan Gonzaga 5 8.2 0.9 0.3 3.1
Domantas Sabonis Gonzaga 2 21.8 0.9 0.6 4.9
Noah Allen UCLA 0 11.6 0.6 0.2 3.4

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. Tony Parker is very foul prone, yet he’ll be a vital post defender in this game. I expect Gonzaga to give UCLA a heavy dose of Karnowski and Sabonis to get Parker (& possibly Looney) cheap fouls as soon as possible. UCLA’s rebounding advantage lessens greatly the more Parker and Looney sit.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Gonzaga 84.6 43.0 18.1 23.5 30.8 14.8 9.4 138.6
UCLA 73.8 34.0 19.2 20.6 33.5 5.8 12.5 123.9
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Gonzaga is just too good of an offensive team. UCLA has a relatively slight advantage on the boards – they need to make that into a big advantage.

Ken Pomeroy has Gonzaga winning 77-69. From the HnI team ratings we just compiled, using that Pomeroy point total I get almost the exact same results: Gonzaga winning by 8.2, 77.1 to 68.9. Great minds think alike.

Dan

Sweet 16: Arizona vs. Xavier

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
172 7 T.J. McConnell Arizona 30.1 10.1 3.9 6.3 2.2 0.1 2.0 0.567 39
155 39 Stanley Johnson Arizona 28.4 14.0 6.6 1.7 1.5 0.4 2.2 0.545 31
154 44 Matt Stainbrook Xavier 26.5 12.1 6.9 2.4 0.6 0.6 1.9 0.647 35
149 68 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 28.4 11.3 6.9 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.568 34
142 115 Jalen Reynolds Xavier 20.1 9.9 6.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.626 27
138 156 Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 10.0 3.0 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.528 13
137 175 Brandon Ashley Arizona 27.8 12.2 5.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.566 22
133 219 Gabe York Arizona 22.9 9.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.604 23
132 234 Dusan Ristic Arizona 8.9 3.6 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.614 4
130 258 Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 25.9 9.2 5.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.604 20
122 400 Dee Davis Xavier 32.7 8.9 2.4 6.0 1.3 0.0 2.4 0.502 40
122 414 Trevon Bluiett Xavier 28.4 11.3 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 1.4 0.543 29
121 433 Myles Davis Xavier 27.0 10.7 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.573 21
116 593 Remy Abell Xavier 27.6 8.5 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.600 28
114 647 James Farr Xavier 15.6 4.3 5.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.472 14
113 679 J.P. Macura Xavier 13.3 5.5 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.557 6
97 1486 Elliott Pitts Arizona 15.0 3.6 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.542 14

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.

Eight of the top 10 rated players are Wildcats, although two of them (Jackson-Cartwright and Ristic) play limited minutes because of how talented the roster is.

I keep reading about how gritty TJ McConnell is, how he’s the glue guy, etc. Honestly, TJ McConnell has turned into a STAR player. He does about everything well to exceptionally well, he just doesn’t take many shots.

We have four players in this game ranked in the top 70 nationally.

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 112 20.1 19.6 0.626
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 108 26.5 18.3 0.647
Stanley Johnson Arizona 101 28.4 19.7 0.545
Brandon Ashley Arizona 95 27.8 17.6 0.566
Dusan Ristic Arizona 94 8.9 15.9 0.614
Gabe York Arizona 92 22.9 15.9 0.604
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 86 28.4 15.8 0.568
J.P. Macura Xavier 83 13.3 16.5 0.557
Myles Davis Xavier 82 27.0 15.9 0.573
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 82 25.9 14.2 0.604
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 77 28.4 15.9 0.543
T.J. McConnell Arizona 73 30.1 13.4 0.567
Remy Abell Xavier 68 27.6 12.4 0.600
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 59 10.0 11.9 0.528
Elliott Pitts Arizona 49 15.0 9.6 0.542
Dee Davis Xavier 47 32.7 10.9 0.502
James Farr Xavier 43 15.6 11.0 0.472

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 92 20.1 8.1 13.0 0.623
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 79 26.5 7.0 11.2 0.622
Dusan Ristic Arizona 67 8.9 5.8 9.6 0.603
Brandon Ashley Arizona 58 27.8 5.8 10.9 0.535
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 56 25.9 5.0 8.7 0.579
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 50 28.4 4.9 9.0 0.541
T.J. McConnell Arizona 47 30.1 4.5 8.2 0.552
Stanley Johnson Arizona 41 28.4 5.0 10.4 0.477
James Farr Xavier 29 15.6 3.6 7.3 0.485
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 29 28.4 3.4 6.8 0.497
Remy Abell Xavier 28 27.6 2.8 5.0 0.552
J.P. Macura Xavier 25 13.3 2.6 4.8 0.537
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 22 10.0 2.9 6.3 0.460
Gabe York Arizona 20 22.9 2.0 3.8 0.526
Dee Davis Xavier 17 32.7 2.4 5.5 0.447
Myles Davis Xavier 11 27.0 1.9 4.6 0.413
Elliott Pitts Arizona 10 15.0 1.2 2.5 0.471

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Xavier’s fortunes and offensive efficiency really lie on Reynolds’ and Stainbrook’s ability to score efficiently from the paint. Considering Xavier hasn’t faced a team all season with the defensive ability, size, and length of Arizona – it’s going to be quite a tall order for those two.

Dusan Ristic would be be a star post player offensively for about 90% of D1 programs.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 36 28.4 5.4 7.6 0.703
Stanley Johnson Arizona 34 28.4 5.0 6.8 0.736
Myles Davis Xavier 30 27.0 4.2 4.8 0.868
Brandon Ashley Arizona 29 27.8 4.5 6.5 0.691
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 29 26.5 4.3 5.6 0.767
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 27 25.9 4.1 6.1 0.676
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 25 28.4 3.8 5.1 0.746
Gabe York Arizona 21 22.9 2.8 3.5 0.814
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 20 20.1 3.4 5.1 0.656
J.P. Macura Xavier 19 13.3 2.8 3.7 0.762
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 17 10.0 2.8 4.3 0.647
Dee Davis Xavier 16 32.7 2.5 3.5 0.725
Remy Abell Xavier 14 27.6 2.2 3.1 0.705
Dusan Ristic Arizona 13 8.9 2.8 5.4 0.512
T.J. McConnell Arizona 13 30.1 1.8 2.2 0.800
Elliott Pitts Arizona 10 15.0 1.4 1.8 0.792
James Farr Xavier 4 15.6 1.1 2.3 0.469

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Gabe York Arizona 52 22.9 3.0 7.7 0.396
Myles Davis Xavier 41 27.0 2.6 6.8 0.385
J.P. Macura Xavier 39 13.3 2.8 8.1 0.348
Elliott Pitts Arizona 29 15.0 1.9 5.4 0.356
Remy Abell Xavier 26 27.6 1.5 3.7 0.413
Stanley Johnson Arizona 25 28.4 1.6 4.3 0.373
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 23 28.4 1.8 5.2 0.336
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 19 10.0 1.1 2.9 0.391
Dusan Ristic Arizona 14 8.9 0.5 0.7 0.800
Dee Davis Xavier 14 32.7 1.2 3.6 0.318
T.J. McConnell Arizona 13 30.1 0.9 2.6 0.343
James Farr Xavier 9 15.6 0.9 3.1 0.295
Brandon Ashley Arizona 7 27.8 0.5 1.4 0.343
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 0 28.4 0.2 1.1 0.214
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 0 26.5 0.0 0.2 0.250
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 0 25.9 0.0 0.0 -
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 0 20.1 0.0 0.1 0.000

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. Davis and Macura, and their willingness to launch from three, might be the key to Xavier having a chance for an upset. Let’s just say Xavier needs them to get hot – and for Arizona’s Gabe York to not do the same.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
James Farr Xavier 65 15.6 3.4 10.5 14.0
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 59 20.1 3.7 8.5 12.2
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 50 28.4 3.0 6.8 9.8
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 50 26.5 3.0 7.3 10.4
Dusan Ristic Arizona 49 8.9 2.8 6.8 9.6
Stanley Johnson Arizona 48 28.4 2.9 6.4 9.3
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 41 25.9 2.4 5.5 7.9
Brandon Ashley Arizona 40 27.8 2.6 5.0 7.6
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 30 28.4 2.0 4.1 6.1
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 26 10.0 0.8 5.0 5.8
T.J. McConnell Arizona 24 30.1 0.9 4.2 5.1
J.P. Macura Xavier 19 13.3 1.3 2.4 3.7
Gabe York Arizona 16 22.9 0.3 3.4 3.7
Elliott Pitts Arizona 16 15.0 1.1 1.8 2.9
Myles Davis Xavier 15 27.0 0.4 3.1 3.5
Dee Davis Xavier 13 32.7 0.4 2.6 3.0
Remy Abell Xavier 13 27.6 0.4 2.4 2.9

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28. If Farr, Reynolds, and Stainbrook can stay in the game and get quality minutes, Xavier should be able to hang with Arizona for the most part on the boards. If those three can’t top their average minutes per game by a decent margin – Xavier will get manhandled. Arizona is a deep rebounding team – four starters rebounding like power forwards, with good rebounding point guards to boot.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
T.J. McConnell Arizona 64 30.1 8.4 2.6
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 51 10.0 7.3 2.8
Dee Davis Xavier 48 32.7 7.4 2.9
Myles Davis Xavier 14 27.0 3.2 2.0
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 10 28.4 2.8 2.0
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 10 26.5 3.7 2.9
Remy Abell Xavier 6 27.6 1.9 1.3
Gabe York Arizona 6 22.9 2.2 1.7
Elliott Pitts Arizona 5 15.0 1.2 0.8
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 1 28.4 2.3 2.3
Stanley Johnson Arizona -4 28.4 2.4 3.0
J.P. Macura Xavier -8 13.3 1.9 2.8
Dusan Ristic Arizona -9 8.9 0.3 1.2
Brandon Ashley Arizona -11 27.8 1.0 2.1
James Farr Xavier -15 15.6 1.1 2.7
Jalen Reynolds Xavier -16 20.1 0.7 2.4
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona -17 25.9 0.5 2.2

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. There is no player in the nation that is TJ McConnell’s rival in this rating, he stands alone. His backup, Jackson-Cartwright, has the 2nd highest handles/passing rating of all Sweet 16 players. Much like Ristic, he would star at about 90% of D1 programs as a true point guard.

Xavier’s Dee Davis ain’t no slouch himself – he has the 5th best rating here of all Sweet 16 guys – only Ulis of Kentucky and VanVleet of Wichita State come between him and Jackson-Cartwright.

But, again, no one runs a team like McConnell. If Arizona is able to win it all this season, it’ll be very largely due to having a truly elite floor general. For this game, the match up between him and Dee Davis should be fun.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
T.J. McConnell Arizona 29 30.1 3.0 0.1 2.4
Stanley Johnson Arizona 21 28.4 2.1 0.6 3.6
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 20 28.4 1.6 1.3 3.4
James Farr Xavier 16 15.6 0.9 2.1 4.4
J.P. Macura Xavier 16 13.3 2.2 0.3 4.4
Jalen Reynolds Xavier 13 20.1 1.2 1.9 6.1
Dee Davis Xavier 11 32.7 1.6 0.0 2.9
Gabe York Arizona 10 22.9 0.9 0.6 2.2
Brandon Ashley Arizona 8 27.8 0.9 1.0 4.0
Matt Stainbrook Xavier 8 26.5 0.9 0.9 3.7
Myles Davis Xavier 7 27.0 1.3 0.0 2.8
Parker Jackson-Cartwright Arizona 7 10.0 1.4 0.1 4.0
Remy Abell Xavier 6 27.6 0.8 0.1 1.8
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 4 25.9 0.7 0.9 4.6
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 3 28.4 0.9 0.1 3.2
Elliott Pitts Arizona 1 15.0 0.9 0.1 4.1
Dusan Ristic Arizona -2 8.9 0.3 1.2 5.8

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. I’d be willing to bet there aren’t two better on the ball defenders outside the post in the same lineup in the nation than McConnell and Hollis-Jefferson. It’s a safe bet.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Arizona 82.8 41.7 24.3 16.7 34.7 13.4 15.3 144.6
Xavier 78.2 41.7 20.7 15.9 32.1 11.7 9.0 128.6
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Arizona has the advantage across the board. Xavier will have to keep their three big rebounders and post defenders out of foul trouble – and they’ll need to hit their threes – to stay in this game.

Ken Pomeroy has Arizona winning 74-64. With the optimized lineups based on the player ratings, I come up with Arizona winning by 8.1 points, a 73.0 to 65.0 final.

Dan

Sweet 16: Kentucky vs. West Virginia

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
180 3 Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 20.9 10.0 6.8 1.1 0.4 2.4 1.3 0.618 25
162 21 Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 25.4 9.3 6.4 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.586 28
151 59 Dakari Johnson Kentucky 16.5 6.6 4.8 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.539 17
145 94 Trey Lyles Kentucky 22.6 8.5 5.3 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.538 28
144 99 Andrew Harrison Kentucky 25.4 9.2 2.2 3.6 0.9 0.2 1.6 0.521 27
143 106 Juwan Staten West Virginia 31.2 14.2 2.8 4.8 1.1 0.0 2.1 0.502 34
143 111 Devin Booker Kentucky 21.5 10.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.590 22
142 114 Tyler Ulis Kentucky 24.0 5.8 1.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 1.1 0.555 28
142 118 Aaron Harrison Kentucky 25.8 11.1 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.507 23
141 136 Devin Williams West Virginia 25.0 11.6 8.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.518 32
136 180 Jonathan Holton West Virginia 21.4 7.6 5.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.513 29
128 295 Jaysean Paige West Virginia 13.5 5.8 1.9 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.9 0.511 14
127 305 Marcus Lee Kentucky 11.3 2.7 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.589 2
127 307 Jevon Carter West Virginia 23.8 8.2 2.4 1.8 2.0 0.1 1.1 0.487 19
122 402 Gary Browne West Virginia 20.2 7.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.534 20
122 411 Tarik Phillip West Virginia 12.9 4.1 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.9 0.547 11
121 441 Daxter Miles West Virginia 20.6 7.5 2.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.509 21
108 904 Elijah Macon West Virginia 12.9 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.483 6
103 Brandon Watkins West Virginia 7.0 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.458 2
100 1283 Nathan Adrian West Virginia 15.4 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.386 12

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.

Yes, the top 5 rated players are Kentucky Wildcats, and 8 of the top 9. But, the WVU guys aren’t slouches, a few are in the “neighborhood” in terms of rating of all but maybe UK’s top two guys (Towns and Cauley-Stein).

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 116 20.9 19.1 0.618
Devin Booker Kentucky 109 21.5 18.8 0.590
Devin Williams West Virginia 88 25.0 18.6 0.518
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 84 25.4 14.5 0.586
Juwan Staten West Virginia 83 31.2 18.3 0.502
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 83 16.5 15.9 0.539
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 82 25.8 17.2 0.507
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 80 13.5 17.1 0.511
Trey Lyles Kentucky 78 22.6 15.1 0.538
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 72 25.4 14.5 0.521
Gary Browne West Virginia 71 20.2 14.2 0.534
Daxter Miles West Virginia 68 20.6 14.6 0.509
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 67 21.4 14.2 0.513
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 65 12.9 12.6 0.547
Jevon Carter West Virginia 59 23.8 13.8 0.487
Elijah Macon West Virginia 58 12.9 13.6 0.483
Marcus Lee Kentucky 55 11.3 9.5 0.589
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 53 24.0 9.7 0.555
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 44 7.0 11.5 0.458
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 17 15.4 7.5 0.386

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. Towns and Booker stand out, then everyone else is pretty tightly grouped.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 75 20.9 6.7 11.7 0.570
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 63 25.4 5.6 9.7 0.577
Trey Lyles Kentucky 58 22.6 5.5 10.0 0.545
Marcus Lee Kentucky 55 11.3 4.3 6.8 0.638
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 49 21.4 4.7 8.5 0.552
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 47 16.5 5.0 10.1 0.500
Devin Williams West Virginia 46 25.0 6.1 13.3 0.455
Elijah Macon West Virginia 44 12.9 5.3 11.2 0.474
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 39 12.9 3.6 6.2 0.576
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 39 7.0 5.0 10.7 0.463
Juwan Staten West Virginia 36 31.2 5.3 12.1 0.436
Devin Booker Kentucky 36 21.5 3.7 7.1 0.515
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 29 25.8 3.4 7.2 0.473
Daxter Miles West Virginia 24 20.6 3.0 6.4 0.468
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 19 13.5 3.0 6.9 0.429
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 14 15.4 1.8 4.0 0.462
Jevon Carter West Virginia 13 23.8 2.2 5.3 0.411
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 10 25.4 2.6 7.0 0.371
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 10 24.0 1.7 4.1 0.410
Gary Browne West Virginia 9 20.2 2.0 5.1 0.388

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Kentucky should dominate the paint offensively.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Devin Williams West Virginia 43 25.0 6.5 9.2 0.705
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 41 20.9 5.4 6.5 0.821
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 36 16.5 5.8 9.3 0.623
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 35 25.4 4.7 6.1 0.777
Juwan Staten West Virginia 34 31.2 5.2 7.5 0.698
Gary Browne West Virginia 30 20.2 4.5 6.4 0.700
Trey Lyles Kentucky 24 22.6 3.5 4.8 0.722
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 24 12.9 3.8 5.6 0.678
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 24 25.8 3.2 4.1 0.779
Devin Booker Kentucky 22 21.5 2.8 3.4 0.828
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 21 25.4 3.4 5.4 0.621
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 17 21.4 2.7 4.0 0.671
Jevon Carter West Virginia 16 23.8 2.3 3.0 0.770
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 15 24.0 2.0 2.4 0.816
Elijah Macon West Virginia 14 12.9 3.0 5.8 0.517
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 9 13.5 1.8 3.4 0.526
Daxter Miles West Virginia 8 20.6 1.6 2.9 0.549
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 8 15.4 1.3 2.0 0.654
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 5 7.0 1.6 3.7 0.429
Marcus Lee Kentucky 0 11.3 0.8 2.5 0.320

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16. Devin Williams has a knack for getting to the line – they need him to use his magic to try to get some cheap fouls on Towns.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Devin Booker Kentucky 52 21.5 2.9 7.1 0.406
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 52 13.5 3.1 8.2 0.385
Daxter Miles West Virginia 36 20.6 2.3 6.5 0.360
Gary Browne West Virginia 32 20.2 1.9 5.0 0.385
Jevon Carter West Virginia 30 23.8 2.4 7.4 0.322
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 30 25.8 2.4 7.8 0.311
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 28 24.0 1.5 3.5 0.423
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 27 25.4 1.5 3.9 0.393
Juwan Staten West Virginia 12 31.2 0.8 2.4 0.352
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 1 12.9 0.6 2.5 0.222
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 1 21.4 0.7 3.4 0.213
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 1 20.9 0.1 0.4 0.250
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 0 16.5 0.0 0.0 -
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 0 25.4 0.0 0.0 -
Elijah Macon West Virginia 0 12.9 0.0 0.0 -
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 0 7.0 0.0 0.0 -
Marcus Lee Kentucky 0 11.3 0.0 0.0 -
Devin Williams West Virginia 0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.000
Trey Lyles Kentucky -4 22.6 0.2 1.6 0.138
Nathan Adrian West Virginia -5 15.4 0.8 4.7 0.177

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. WVU has guys that aren’t afraid to let fly from range – they just need them to hit. If the Mountaineers are to hang in this game, they need to win the battle from three.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 70 20.9 4.5 8.5 13.0
Devin Williams West Virginia 69 25.0 4.5 8.7 13.2
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 63 16.5 4.3 7.2 11.5
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 61 21.4 5.3 5.4 10.7
Marcus Lee Kentucky 56 11.3 4.4 5.3 9.8
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 55 25.4 3.7 6.5 10.1
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 53 7.0 5.5 3.1 8.6
Trey Lyles Kentucky 51 22.6 3.2 6.2 9.4
Elijah Macon West Virginia 46 12.9 3.9 4.2 8.0
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 39 15.4 3.8 2.7 6.5
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 34 13.5 3.2 2.4 5.7
Daxter Miles West Virginia 26 20.6 2.3 2.2 4.5
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 25 12.9 2.0 2.6 4.6
Jevon Carter West Virginia 23 23.8 1.9 2.1 4.1
Gary Browne West Virginia 20 20.2 1.4 2.3 3.7
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 19 25.8 0.6 3.3 3.9
Devin Booker Kentucky 18 21.5 0.8 2.8 3.7
Juwan Staten West Virginia 17 31.2 0.6 2.9 3.5
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 16 25.4 0.5 2.9 3.5
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 16 24.0 0.7 2.4 3.1

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28. Here’s the other area WVU could (and needs to) win – the crashing of the boards. This game is full of quality rebounders who will be battling all night.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 50 24.0 6.3 1.9
Juwan Staten West Virginia 39 31.2 6.1 2.7
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 37 25.4 5.7 2.6
Jevon Carter West Virginia 14 23.8 3.0 1.8
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 11 25.8 2.3 1.4
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 8 15.4 2.6 2.0
Gary Browne West Virginia 7 20.2 2.9 2.4
Daxter Miles West Virginia 7 20.6 1.9 1.4
Devin Booker Kentucky 5 21.5 2.2 1.9
Trey Lyles Kentucky 2 22.6 1.9 1.9
Tarik Phillip West Virginia -2 12.9 2.5 2.9
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky -3 20.9 2.1 2.5
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky -4 25.4 1.5 2.0
Jonathan Holton West Virginia -4 21.4 2.2 2.7
Marcus Lee Kentucky -4 11.3 1.2 1.7
Dakari Johnson Kentucky -6 16.5 1.9 2.7
Jaysean Paige West Virginia -6 13.5 2.0 2.8
Devin Williams West Virginia -12 25.0 2.1 3.5
Elijah Macon West Virginia -13 12.9 2.4 4.0
Brandon Watkins West Virginia -27 7.0 1.0 3.9

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. With WVU’s constant pressure, Tyler Ulis might be Kentucky’s most important player this specific game.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 37 25.4 2.0 2.6 3.2
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 34 20.9 0.8 4.6 5.6
Jevon Carter West Virginia 32 23.8 3.3 0.1 3.1
Tarik Phillip West Virginia 31 12.9 3.6 0.1 4.3
Brandon Watkins West Virginia 28 7.0 1.3 3.7 6.8
Jaysean Paige West Virginia 25 13.5 3.3 0.4 6.6
Jonathan Holton West Virginia 22 21.4 2.1 1.6 6.2
Gary Browne West Virginia 20 20.2 2.5 0.0 3.5
Dakari Johnson Kentucky 18 16.5 0.9 2.1 4.1
Aaron Harrison Kentucky 18 25.8 1.9 0.3 2.4
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 17 15.4 2.1 1.0 6.2
Tyler Ulis Kentucky 15 24.0 1.7 0.1 2.4
Daxter Miles West Virginia 14 20.6 2.2 0.1 5.0
Andrew Harrison Kentucky 13 25.4 1.5 0.3 2.8
Marcus Lee Kentucky 12 11.3 0.3 2.7 5.7
Juwan Staten West Virginia 11 31.2 1.4 0.0 2.1
Trey Lyles Kentucky 9 22.6 0.9 0.7 2.8
Elijah Macon West Virginia 8 12.9 0.9 1.5 6.0
Devin Williams West Virginia 6 25.0 1.3 0.4 4.6
Devin Booker Kentucky 4 21.5 0.9 0.1 2.8

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. This game should be chock full of blocks (UK), steals (WVU), and fouls (probably WVU).

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Kentucky 83.4 40.9 26.3 16.1 38.2 12.7 18.8 151.1
West Virginia 70.1 31.2 23.6 15.3 37.6 6.2 17.6 129.5
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Kentucky has the advantage across the board, although WVU should be able to hang on the boards and maybe from three point range. Actually, WVU needs to dominate the boards and threes to pull off the upset.

Ken Pomeroy has Kentucky winning 75-62. Using his 137 combined points with the optimized lineups, I have Kentucky coming out on top by 10.5 points, 73.8 to 63.2.

Dan

Sweet 16: Wisconsin vs. North Carolina

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
199 1 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 33.1 18.4 8.1 2.7 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.625 38
155 38 Brice Johnson North Carolina 24.8 12.9 7.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.577 29
153 45 Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 23.6 11.6 7.4 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.579 29
148 76 Marcus Paige North Carolina 33.1 14.1 2.9 4.5 1.7 0.2 1.9 0.568 39
146 84 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 32.9 12.6 6.4 2.1 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.602 37
143 105 Sam Dekker Wisconsin 30.6 13.3 5.4 1.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.589 35
132 242 J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 29.0 8.4 5.6 4.3 1.5 0.4 2.3 0.482 34
131 252 Justin Jackson North Carolina 26.6 10.6 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.539 30
130 263 Josh Gasser Wisconsin 32.7 6.8 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.620 36
127 306 Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 27.4 9.4 1.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.546 5
127 Theo Pinson North Carolina 12.9 2.9 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.447 5
126 326 Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 28.7 8.6 1.7 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.566 28
122 404 Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 14.7 6.6 2.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.563 13
116 Zak Showalter Wisconsin 7.8 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.520 8
115 634 Nate Britt North Carolina 15.5 5.5 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.543 1
108 893 Duje Dukan Wisconsin 16.2 4.9 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.497 13
107 943 Joel Berry North Carolina 13.0 4.0 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.516 11
79 2470 Joel James North Carolina 10.0 2.5 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.469 9

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player.

Frank Kaminsky, the best player in all the land. Still though, this game features three players from each team who rank in the top 105 in the nation – not too shabby. The BIG question though is whether Meeks will be playing – and if he does how effectively?

Scoring rating:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 140 33.1 22.2 0.625
Brice Johnson North Carolina 105 24.8 20.8 0.577
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 103 30.6 17.4 0.589
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 99 23.6 19.6 0.579
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 93 32.9 15.3 0.602
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 88 14.7 18.1 0.563
Marcus Paige North Carolina 84 33.1 17.0 0.568
Justin Jackson North Carolina 74 26.6 16.0 0.539
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 74 27.4 13.7 0.546
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 68 28.7 12.0 0.566
Nate Britt North Carolina 67 15.5 14.3 0.543
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 57 16.2 12.2 0.497
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 54 7.8 10.6 0.520
Joel Berry North Carolina 53 13.0 12.3 0.516
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 52 32.7 8.4 0.620
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 45 29.0 11.6 0.482
Joel James North Carolina 37 10.0 10.0 0.469
Theo Pinson North Carolina 30 12.9 9.1 0.447

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. Kaminsky is a man among boys here.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Brice Johnson North Carolina 85 24.8 8.7 15.6 0.560
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 84 33.1 7.0 11.7 0.596
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 78 23.6 7.9 13.9 0.568
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 68 14.7 7.1 12.9 0.551
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 65 30.6 5.1 8.2 0.627
Justin Jackson North Carolina 49 26.6 5.1 9.3 0.550
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 45 32.9 4.0 7.2 0.556
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 41 27.4 4.0 7.7 0.522
Joel James North Carolina 29 10.0 4.3 9.6 0.449
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 27 7.8 2.9 5.8 0.500
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 24 29.0 3.8 8.7 0.438
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 18 16.2 2.1 4.5 0.468
Marcus Paige North Carolina 17 33.1 2.5 5.6 0.448
Joel Berry North Carolina 17 13.0 2.4 5.4 0.451
Theo Pinson North Carolina 15 12.9 2.4 5.7 0.429
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 13 28.7 1.8 4.2 0.435
Nate Britt North Carolina 12 15.5 2.4 5.9 0.400
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 11 32.7 0.9 1.5 0.614

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Brice Johnson does so much work from two point range that he actually edges out Kaminsky here.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 33 33.1 4.4 5.8 0.762
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 31 7.8 3.9 4.3 0.889
Nate Britt North Carolina 29 15.5 4.1 4.6 0.879
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 28 32.9 3.9 5.2 0.742
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 24 27.4 3.0 3.5 0.854
Marcus Paige North Carolina 22 33.1 3.1 3.6 0.872
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 22 23.6 3.9 6.1 0.636
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 21 14.7 3.8 6.1 0.627
Brice Johnson North Carolina 20 24.8 3.4 4.9 0.681
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 18 30.6 2.5 3.6 0.700
Joel Berry North Carolina 17 13.0 2.6 3.5 0.758
Justin Jackson North Carolina 17 26.6 2.7 3.8 0.710
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 16 32.7 2.0 2.4 0.845
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 15 29.0 2.7 4.4 0.615
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 14 16.2 2.1 3.0 0.690
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 14 28.7 1.8 2.1 0.836
Joel James North Carolina 8 10.0 1.3 2.0 0.667
Theo Pinson North Carolina 7 12.9 1.4 2.2 0.625

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
Marcus Paige North Carolina 46 33.1 3.0 7.6 0.391
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 41 28.7 2.2 5.4 0.410
Nate Britt North Carolina 26 15.5 1.8 4.9 0.371
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 25 16.2 2.0 6.2 0.314
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 25 32.7 1.5 4.0 0.370
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 24 33.1 1.3 3.1 0.407
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 20 30.6 1.5 4.8 0.321
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 20 32.9 1.1 2.8 0.393
Joel Berry North Carolina 20 13.0 1.6 4.8 0.333
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 9 27.4 0.9 3.0 0.286
Justin Jackson North Carolina 9 26.6 1.0 3.6 0.281
Theo Pinson North Carolina 8 12.9 0.9 3.4 0.280
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 7 29.0 0.4 1.2 0.375
Brice Johnson North Carolina 0 24.8 0.0 0.0 -
Joel James North Carolina 0 10.0 0.0 0.0 -
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 0 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.000
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 0 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.000
Zak Showalter Wisconsin -5 7.8 0.3 2.2 0.143

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. I think UNC is going to need Paige to hit a TON of threes.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 61 23.6 4.4 8.2 12.6
Brice Johnson North Carolina 59 24.8 3.8 8.8 12.7
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 49 33.1 1.8 7.9 9.8
Theo Pinson North Carolina 45 12.9 2.8 6.9 9.7
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 43 32.9 2.6 5.2 7.8
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 41 14.7 3.9 4.0 7.9
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 41 7.8 2.9 4.2 7.1
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 39 30.6 2.5 4.5 7.0
Joel James North Carolina 37 10.0 2.7 5.0 7.7
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 36 29.0 2.2 5.6 7.8
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 36 16.2 1.9 4.9 6.7
Justin Jackson North Carolina 27 26.6 2.1 3.5 5.6
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 21 32.7 0.8 3.4 4.2
Nate Britt North Carolina 16 15.5 0.8 2.9 3.6
Marcus Paige North Carolina 15 33.1 0.4 3.1 3.5
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 13 28.7 0.7 1.7 2.4
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 11 27.4 0.2 2.3 2.5
Joel Berry North Carolina 11 13.0 0.3 2.3 2.6

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28. The Tar Heels should win the battle of the boards if Meeks plays. If Meeks is unable to play, the rebound advantage is completely lost.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Marcus Paige North Carolina 32 33.1 5.5 2.3
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 30 29.0 6.0 3.1
Theo Pinson North Carolina 29 12.9 5.0 2.2
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 25 28.7 3.3 1.2
Joel Berry North Carolina 24 13.0 4.6 2.2
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 22 27.4 4.2 2.4
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 19 7.8 2.2 0.6
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 18 33.1 3.3 1.8
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 17 32.7 2.1 0.6
Nate Britt North Carolina 16 15.5 4.0 2.6
Justin Jackson North Carolina 15 26.6 3.5 2.1
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 12 32.9 2.5 1.5
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 5 30.6 1.6 1.3
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 1 16.2 1.7 1.7
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina -7 23.6 1.8 2.7
Brice Johnson North Carolina -8 24.8 1.5 2.5
Joel James North Carolina -13 10.0 0.7 2.2
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina -15 14.7 0.8 2.5

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. Paige and Tokoto run UNC’s offense – while everyone at Wisconsin is capable of moving the ball and making that extra pass. Kaminsky is an exceptional passer out of the post.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 24 33.1 1.1 1.8 1.9
Marcus Paige North Carolina 19 33.1 2.1 0.3 1.9
Theo Pinson North Carolina 18 12.9 1.9 0.7 3.0
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina 18 29.0 2.1 0.5 3.4
Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 18 23.6 1.1 2.2 4.5
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 15 27.4 1.5 0.3 2.2
Brice Johnson North Carolina 15 24.8 1.1 1.8 4.7
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 12 32.9 1.1 0.5 2.2
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 11 30.6 0.7 0.7 1.4
Justin Jackson North Carolina 10 26.6 0.8 0.8 2.2
Zak Showalter Wisconsin 7 7.8 1.3 0.6 5.5
Josh Gasser Wisconsin 7 32.7 0.9 0.3 2.7
Joel Berry North Carolina 4 13.0 1.3 0.1 4.4
Nate Britt North Carolina 3 15.5 1.3 0.1 4.7
Duje Dukan Wisconsin 2 16.2 0.6 0.2 2.8
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 1 28.7 0.3 0.3 2.0
Isaiah Hicks North Carolina 0 14.7 0.7 1.1 6.8
Joel James North Carolina -1 10.0 0.4 1.0 5.5

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. Statistically Frank Kaminsky has no weaknesses on the college court.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Wisconsin 88.5 42.6 22.3 23.6 33.8 14.4 10.8 145.9
North Carolina 76.3 45.4 18.2 12.7 36.6 12.1 13.6 136.6
UNC w/o Meeks 70.7 37.3 18.2 15.2 31.9 15.2 12.0 131.6
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Last I checked, Meeks was still doubtful for the game.

While North Carolina has the advantage on the boards IF Meeks plays, Wisconsin’s offensive prowess with the very best player in the nation at it’s focal point will be too much for the Tar Heels.

Ken Pomeroy has Wisconsin winning 74-68. Using that 142 total points and the compiled team rating above based on projected player minutes, I come up with Wisconsin by 4.7, 73.4 to 68.6.

If Meeks doesn’t play, UNC probably loses it’s rebounding advantage, and the spread increases to Wisconsin winning by 7.3, 74.7 to 67.3. Theoretically, Meeks being out would costs UNC 2.6 points in terms of predicted spread.

 

Dan

Sweet 16: Wichita State vs. Notre Dame

Let’s start with the players who are projected to play possible meaningful minutes with their common stats, ranked by HnI (ignores missed games on the season, better for game predictions than HnR).  The Rank is the player’s national rank out of 3053 “qualified” players (more than 20% of available team minutes). If there is no rank, the player played less than 20% of the available team minutes during the season. M? is the predicted minutes played for each player to best optimize team rating while still adhering to previous 2015 NCAA Tourney precedence and seasonal playing time.

Overall player rank:
HnI Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% M?
171 10 Fred VanVleet Wichita State 31.4 13.2 4.4 5.3 1.9 0.1 1.7 0.549 37
160 23 Jerian Grant Notre Dame 36.9 16.8 3.1 6.6 1.6 0.5 2.2 0.593 40
154 42 Ron Baker Wichita State 32.7 14.9 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.570 37
141 130 Darius Carter Wichita State 21.2 11.1 5.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.545 22
140 141 Zach Auguste Notre Dame 24.3 12.6 6.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.7 0.612 33
137 177 Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 12.0 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.636 12
127 308 Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 34.4 12.4 3.6 3.0 1.6 0.3 1.4 0.613 38
127 316 Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 35.3 12.5 7.3 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.618 39
126 321 Tekele Cotton Wichita State 31.7 9.9 4.0 2.9 1.4 0.3 1.3 0.503 37
124 366 Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 32.2 9.8 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.1 1.3 0.625 33
122 Zach Brown Wichita State 10.5 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.672 23
118 524 Shaquille Morris Wichita State 12.9 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.560 12
114 649 V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 15.4 6.3 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.622 5
113 703 Evan Wessel Wichita State 23.4 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.525 24
96 1554 Rashard Kelly Wichita State 13.9 2.9 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.516 6
78 Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 6.1 1.1 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.486 2

131 is the average HnI for a Sweet 16 player, while going into the tourney 118 was the HnI for the average NCAA Tourney player, 99 average for a D1 player. VanVleet and Grant are top 25 players nationally, Baker is a top 50 player.

Scoring player rank:
Player Team Sco Mn/g Pts/40 TS%
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 108 24.3 20.7 0.612
Darius Carter Wichita State 106 21.2 20.8 0.545
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 101 12.0 18.7 0.636
Ron Baker Wichita State 98 32.7 18.2 0.570
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 91 36.9 18.2 0.593
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 87 15.4 16.5 0.622
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 87 31.4 16.9 0.549
Zach Brown Wichita State 83 10.5 12.9 0.672
Shaquille Morris Wichita State 79 12.9 14.9 0.560
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 75 34.4 14.5 0.613
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 75 35.3 14.2 0.618
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 65 32.2 12.1 0.625
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 57 31.7 12.5 0.503
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 39 13.9 8.3 0.516
Evan Wessel Wichita State 36 23.4 7.4 0.525
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 32 6.1 7.4 0.486

An average Sweet 16 Scoring rating is 75, average NCAA Tourney Scoring rating is 69, while the D1 average is 59. Remember, all these ratings are relative to team SoS, pace, defense, etc. So, while Darius Carter has a much lower TS% than Auguste at about the same rate, his scoring goes farther in context of his team – slower pace and much better defense allowing fewer opponent points. So, Carter’s Scoring rating is quite close to Auguste’s. This is why Baker’s is better than Grant’s.

Rating from 2 point range:
Player Team 2pt Mn/g 2p/40 2pA/40 2p%
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 84 24.3 8.2 13.5 0.604
Darius Carter Wichita State 76 21.2 8.0 15.5 0.518
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 73 12.0 6.8 10.7 0.635
Shaquille Morris Wichita State 59 12.9 5.8 10.6 0.545
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 44 36.9 4.5 7.7 0.584
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 34 34.4 3.5 6.2 0.568
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 30 31.7 3.3 6.7 0.497
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 29 31.4 3.8 8.3 0.459
Ron Baker Wichita State 29 32.7 3.3 6.5 0.500
Zach Brown Wichita State 29 10.5 2.5 4.1 0.607
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 24 13.9 2.7 5.5 0.492
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 22 32.2 2.3 3.9 0.579
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 19 15.4 2.0 3.6 0.558
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 18 35.3 2.1 3.9 0.537
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 16 6.1 2.1 4.7 0.455
Evan Wessel Wichita State 7 23.4 0.9 1.9 0.471

Average Sweet 16 2pt rating is 36, average NCAA Tourney 2pt rating is 31, average D1 is 26. Auguste stands out here, while Carter is just as prolific, just not nearly as efficient.

Rating from the free throw line:
Player Team FT Mn/g FT/40 FTA/40 FT%
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 34 31.4 4.7 5.9 0.797
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 31 36.9 4.9 6.3 0.775
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 29 12.0 4.8 6.5 0.741
Darius Carter Wichita State 26 21.2 4.3 6.6 0.642
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 24 24.3 4.4 6.8 0.641
Ron Baker Wichita State 23 32.7 3.3 4.3 0.758
Zach Brown Wichita State 21 10.5 3.1 4.3 0.724
Shaquille Morris Wichita State 20 12.9 3.3 5.1 0.642
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 16 34.4 2.6 3.5 0.748
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 16 6.1 3.2 6.0 0.536
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 13 31.7 2.0 2.9 0.697
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 12 32.2 1.8 2.1 0.852
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 12 15.4 1.8 2.4 0.759
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 10 35.3 1.5 1.9 0.790
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 9 13.9 1.9 3.6 0.524
Evan Wessel Wichita State 2 23.4 0.5 0.9 0.529

The average FT rating for both the Sweet 16 and the NCAA tourney is 19. D1 average is 16. The star point guards are both adept at getting to the line and hitting their free throws.

Rating from three point range:
Player Team 3pt Mn/g 3p/40 3pA/40 3p%
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 57 15.4 3.5 8.4 0.420
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 46 35.3 2.8 6.6 0.427
Ron Baker Wichita State 46 32.7 2.8 7.3 0.384
Zach Brown Wichita State 33 10.5 1.6 3.4 0.478
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 30 32.2 1.9 4.7 0.409
Evan Wessel Wichita State 26 23.4 1.7 4.7 0.365
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 26 34.4 1.6 3.9 0.417
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 23 31.4 1.5 4.1 0.367
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 16 36.9 1.4 4.5 0.320
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 14 31.7 1.3 4.2 0.297
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 6 13.9 0.3 0.8 0.444
Darius Carter Wichita State 4 21.2 0.2 0.3 0.600
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 0 24.3 0.0 0.0 -
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 0 6.1 0.0 0.0 -
Shaquille Morris Wichita State -1 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.000
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame -2 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.143

Sweet 16 average 3pt rating is 20, NCAA tourney average is 19, D1 average is 16. There are 8 players who are real threats to break the game open from deep, and that doesn’t even include streaky Grant or Cotton.

Rebound rating:
Player Team Reb Mn/g Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State 54 6.1 4.0 6.0 10.0
Darius Carter Wichita State 52 21.2 3.4 6.6 10.0
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 49 24.3 3.5 7.0 10.5
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 47 13.9 3.7 4.7 8.4
Shaquille Morris Wichita State 42 12.9 2.5 5.7 8.2
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 41 12.0 2.8 6.4 9.1
Evan Wessel Wichita State 34 23.4 2.5 3.6 6.2
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 34 35.3 1.2 7.1 8.3
Zach Brown Wichita State 30 10.5 2.6 2.5 5.1
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 28 31.4 1.4 4.2 5.6
Ron Baker Wichita State 26 32.7 1.1 4.4 5.4
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 24 31.7 0.9 4.1 5.1
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 19 34.4 1.4 2.8 4.2
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 16 15.4 0.8 3.0 3.8
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 15 32.2 0.6 3.2 3.8
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 13 36.9 0.4 3.0 3.3

The average Sweet 16 rebound rating is 34, NCAA tourney team average is 31, D1 average is 28.

Ball handling & passing rating:
Player Team BH Mn/g Ast/40 TO/40
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 50 31.4 6.8 2.2
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 46 36.9 7.1 2.4
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 23 31.7 3.7 1.7
Ron Baker Wichita State 19 32.7 3.1 1.4
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 19 34.4 3.5 1.7
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 6 32.2 2.1 1.6
Evan Wessel Wichita State 6 23.4 1.2 0.7
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 4 35.3 1.6 1.3
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 1 12.0 1.4 1.4
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame -1 15.4 1.2 1.3
Zach Brown Wichita State -6 10.5 0.9 1.6
Darius Carter Wichita State -8 21.2 1.1 2.0
Zach Auguste Notre Dame -12 24.3 1.4 2.8
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State -12 6.1 0.2 1.5
Shaquille Morris Wichita State -15 12.9 1.1 2.7
Rashard Kelly Wichita State -17 13.9 1.2 3.1

Sweet 16 average rating here is 9, NCAA Tourney team average is 6, D1 average is 2. VanVleet and Grant are obviously two of the very best in the nation in this respect.

Defensive stops rating:
Player Team Df Mn/g Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 27 12.0 2.0 2.2 4.2
Fred VanVleet Wichita State 24 31.4 2.4 0.2 1.8
Ron Baker Wichita State 21 32.7 1.6 0.9 2.1
Tekele Cotton Wichita State 18 31.7 1.7 0.4 2.0
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame 18 34.4 1.9 0.4 2.1
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 18 36.9 1.8 0.6 2.2
Zach Brown Wichita State 16 10.5 1.2 1.5 4.0
Evan Wessel Wichita State 12 23.4 1.4 0.3 2.4
Zach Auguste Notre Dame 11 24.3 1.2 1.1 4.1
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 11 35.3 0.8 1.1 2.2
Rashard Kelly Wichita State 10 13.9 1.0 0.8 3.6
Steve Vasturia Notre Dame 10 32.2 1.4 0.2 2.7
Shaquille Morris Wichita State 9 12.9 0.9 2.5 8.6
Darius Carter Wichita State 8 21.2 0.8 1.1 4.3
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 7 15.4 0.7 0.7 2.4
Tom “Bush” Wamukota Wichita State -4 6.1 0.4 1.1 7.2

Sweet 16 and NCAA Tourney average rating is 13, D1 average is 10. Notre Dame really needs foul prone Auguste and Colson to stay out of foul trouble.

The Prediction:

Using the the predicted minutes (M?) for the players in this game – here’s how the team ratings look:

Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Def HnI
Wichita State 76.6 33.4 20.3 22.9 31.9 14.4 16.8 137.3
Notre Dame 83.8 41.3 19.1 23.4 26.3 12.9 14.2 135.4
Sweet 16 Average 75.1 36.1 19.4 19.7 33.6 9.1 13.3 131.2
NCAA Tourney Average 68.6 31.1 18.6 18.8 30.9 6.1 12.6 118.1
D1 Average 58.8 26.1 16.5 16.3 28.4 2.2 10.0 99.5

Notre Dame is the better scoring team, particularly from two point range. Wichita State is the better rebounding and defensive team. It’s tight.

Ken Pomeroy has Wichita State winning 69-68. Using his 137 total points scored and the team HnI we just calculated from the player ratings – I come up with the exact same 1 point spread in favor of Wichita State.

Dan