Category Archives: Player Rankings

2017 NCAA Tourney Player Rankings

This is a very different look at the data than I would normally do when approaching a full season. This approach is a game by game approach, attempting to quantify each and every players’ statistical impact in each and every Tourney game. I calculate my version of statistical +- for every player in every game, and using those results dole out every player’s share of the win or loss for each game. Here’s the results, compiled overall and per game:

2017NCAATourneyPlayerWinsPOST

It’s late, I don’t have time or the gumption to go into a ton of details here – all the data is in the spreadsheet and fully sortable. Copying from the FAQ page, here’s a synopsis of the main ratings I am utilizing here and how they generally work:

PW Player Wins. All players with >0 Statistical +- in a win will get a share of the win proportionate to their Stat+- relative to the others. All players <0 Stat+- get a 0 PW for that game.
A player might get a full 1.00 PW for a game, if he played a great game in a win & was the only player on his team with a >0 Stat+-
Summed PW for every player on a victorious team will equal 1. Compiled PW for this tourney equals 67 (67 victorious teams).
PL Player Losses. All players with <0 Statistical +- in a loss will get a share of the loss proportionate to their Stat+- relative to the others. All players >0 Stat+- get a 0 PL for that game.
A player might get a full 1.00 PL for a game, if he played a HORRIBLE game in a loss & was the only player on his team with a <0 Stat+-
Summed PL for every player on a losing team will equal 1. Compiled PL for this tourney equals 67 (67 teams lost a game).
Stat+- Statistical +- is a theoretical +- player stat based on his box score data relative to that specific game. A great game statistically = good positive Stat+-, a BAD game = negative Stat+-
A player might have a BIG Stat+- in a blowout win, but have a relatively small PW because many other teammates had good Stat+- & took a good share of the PW.
Compiled player Stat+- for any team in a game will exactly match the final game outcome margin. If a team wins by 5, the compiled Stat+- of the players will equal 5.0

There were 7 games that stood out the most in this tourney – in order of Player Wins:

PW PL Rk Stat+/- Rk Player Team Rd MP PTS TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF TS%
1.00 0.00 1 15.1 13 Derrick Walton Jr Michigan 1 39 26 5 11 2 1 3 3 78.8%
0.83 0.00 2 15.3 9 Moritz Wagner Michigan 2 31 26 3 1 2 0 1 3 76.5%
0.82 0.00 3 18.5 6 Tyler Dorsey Oregon 2 35 27 5 3 3 0 4 2 93.1%
0.78 0.00 4 14.3 21 KeVaughn Allen Florida 3 37 35 0 1 1 1 2 2 60.3%
0.78 0.00 5 15.2 12 Lonzo Ball UCLA 2 38 18 7 9 2 0 1 1 90.0%
0.76 0.00 6 24.8 1 Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 5 30 25 14 1 3 1 0 4 78.1%
0.74 0.00 7 22.0 2 De’Aaron Fox Kentucky 3 36 39 3 4 2 0 1 2 70.9%

The spreadsheet has all 1295 player games (including all the raw data if anyone wanted to even try to create their own ratings) on sheet #2.

All Tourney Team:
PW PL Diff Rk Stat+- Rk 1st Team Team G M/G Pt/G Rb/G As/G St/G Bk/G TO/G PF/G TS%
1.93 0.00 1.93 1 54.9 1 Kennedy Meeks North Carolina 6 26.2 12.2 11.5 0.5 0.7 2.2 0.7 2.3 64.0%
1.86 0.00 1.86 2 44.0 4 Tyler Dorsey Oregon 5 35.4 23.8 4.4 1.2 2.4 0.0 2.4 2.2 75.8%
1.82 0.08 1.74 3 53.1 2 Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina 5 35.6 23.6 7.0 2.4 2.8 1.2 2.8 2.2 62.4%
1.59 0.00 1.59 4 46.7 3 Jordan Bell Oregon 5 31.4 12.6 13.2 1.6 2.4 3.0 2.4 1.2 70.0%
1.39 0.00 1.39 5 34.6 7 Zach Collins Gonzaga 6 18.0 9.0 6.8 0.5 2.3 3.0 2.3 3.3 67.5%
PW PL Diff Rk Stat+- Rk 2nd Team Team G M/G Pt/G Rb/G As/G St/G Bk/G TO/G PF/G TS%
1.09 0.00 1.09 6 20.6 21 Luke Maye North Carolina 6 16.2 8.7 5.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.3 57.8%
1.08 0.00 1.08 7 34.7 6 Justin Jackson North Carolina 6 34.5 19.5 5.2 3.7 2.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 54.7%
1.00 0.00 1.00 8 29.8 8 Derrick Walton Jr Michigan 3 37.3 18.7 5.7 8.3 1.7 0.3 1.7 2.7 65.1%
0.99 0.00 0.99 9 24.6 13 Nigel Williams-Goss Gonzaga 6 37.2 16.7 7.3 4.3 2.3 0.3 2.3 2.2 44.4%
0.86 0.00 0.86 10 42.9 5 Frank Mason Kansas 4 35.5 22.3 4.5 6.0 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 62.7%

Kennedy Meeks is undoubtedly the MOP, looking at the tourney as a whole. Tyler Dorsey and Sindarius Thornwell were the top players who didn’t win it all.

As it is – have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined. All the raw player data is there, per game and compiled – if you want to create something yourself. You can sort to your heart’s content, looking at favorite teams or players. You can even look at the very worst players of the tourney if you are more of a Debbie Downer. It’s all there, 694 players and 1295 individual player games. Enjoy.

Dan

Final Four & Historical Champion Player Ratings – with some NBA Comps thrown in!

It’s been a crazy week. A storm earlier in the week took out our internet, right before I went on a camping trip with my oldest son. Got back home late last night – still no internet. I didn’t get an article pre-written, & I’m jumping through some last minute hoops to get this up before the Final Four games begin. In other words, I’m winging it – while hoping my spreadsheet will upload correctly. Here it is – cross your fingers:

 2017Final4&PastChampsPlayerRatingsPOST

Yes, I know, there is a ton to digest there – let me help sort it out a little.

Why are all the past NCAA players included?

Honestly, because I can – & no one else would do it. Trying to add some perspective on the possible impact of the players left in the tourney by offering the ratings of the past great (or not so great) champions we remember.

First thing you will notice – Sindarius Thornwell currently sits #1. That is NOT a typo, that’s how incredibly he has preformed this season. This is in no way saying he will have a better NBA career than many of the past players he is listed in front of (he is a year – or two or three – older than many were during their great runs, & age is HUGE for NBA prospects) – but it is saying he has been a dominant player this season all things considered. If he leads South Carolina to the championship – it is about certain he will end up with the highest seasonal HnI rating of ANY champion in the last 22 years. That’s how good he has been – and it’s a complete shame that most “experts” have been in the dark on him pretty much the whole season. They’re woke now.

So, if you dig deeper into the spreadsheet, here are how the current & past players rank in specific rating skillsets:

Scoring Production
Player Cla Team MP Pts/40 TS% Sco
Marreese Speights FR 2007 Florida 189 28.4 0.670 12.1
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 1014 25.6 0.586 10.2
Richard Hamilton JR 1999 Connecticut 1091 26.8 0.555 9.8
Morris Peterson SR 2000 Michigan St. 1136 23.1 0.590 8.7
Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 636 23.1 0.696 8.5
Tony Delk SR 1996 Kentucky 947 27.0 0.616 8.4
Jahlil Okafor FR 2015 Duke 1143 23.0 0.635 8.4

If we ignore Speights & his limited minutes as a frosh – Sindarius is the most impactful scorer on the list. Remember, he puts up that production on an elite defensive team with an average pace at best. His production in that respect looks even more impressive than at first glance. Putting him in a lineup of average past champ players would, in theory, improve that lineup by 10.2 points per 70 possessions just as a result of his scoring impact (the Sco column).

2pt Production
Player Cla Team MP 2ptFG/40 2pt% 2pt
Marreese Speights FR 2007 Florida 189 12.1 67.06% 14.6
Jahlil Okafor FR 2015 Duke 1143 9.8 66.43% 12.3
Nazr Mohammed JR 1998 Kentucky 819 9.3 59.75% 8.9
Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut 1166 9.0 59.86% 8.1
Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida 972 8.3 62.93% 8.1
Przemek Karnowski SR Gonzaga 848 9.0 60.25% 7.8
Sean May JR 2005 UNC 992 9.2 57.14% 7.0
Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 636 7.3 67.84% 6.8

Two Zags rank in the top 8 here, which demonstrates the dominance they often have over opponents in the lane.

3pt Production
Player Cla Team MP 3ptFG/40 3pt% 3pt
Lee Humphrey JR 2006 Florida 1138 4.0 46.12% 7.7
Jason Williams SO 2001 Duke 1239 4.3 42.72% 6.9
Lee Humphrey SR 2007 Florida 1215 3.7 45.93% 6.6
Rashad Anderson SO 2004 Connecticut 864 4.0 41.04% 6.5
Tony Delk SR 1996 Kentucky 947 3.9 44.29% 6.5
Cameron Mills SR 1998 Kentucky 427 3.6 43.68% 6.3
Morris Peterson SR 2000 Michigan St. 1136 3.0 42.50% 5.6
Shane Battier SR 2001 Duke 1364 3.6 41.89% 5.3
Kris Jenkins JR 2016 Villanova 1134 3.5 38.61% 5.0
Kyle Wiltjer FR 2012 Kentucky 462 3.0 43.21% 4.9
Ben Gordon JR 2004 Connecticut 1346 3.1 43.33% 4.8
Rashad McCants JR 2005 UNC 856 3.3 42.26% 4.7
Rakym Felder FR South Carolina 519 2.6 43.59% 4.4

Had to dig a little deeper to get to a current guy here.

Free Throw Production
Player Cla Team MP FT/40 FT% FT
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 1014 8.3 83.00% 6.2
Tyler Hansbrough SR 2009 UNC 1029 9.7 84.12% 6.1
Russ Smith JR 2013 Louisville 1211 7.3 80.43% 5.3
Kemba Walker JR 2011 Connecticut 1543 6.7 81.90% 4.6
Richard Hamilton JR 1999 Connecticut 1091 6.2 83.33% 4.2
Chris Silva SO South Carolina 744 6.8 75.15% 4.1

Where Sindarius does much of his damage – at the line. His teammate Chris Silva is no slouch himself – South Carolina must generate points by getting to the line tooffset their general lack of team shooting.

Rebound Rating
Player Cla Team MP Rb/40 Reb
Brian Zoubek SR 2010 Duke 746 16.6 8.2
Marreese Speights FR 2007 Florida 189 18.0 7.6
Sean May JR 2005 UNC 992 16.0 5.6
Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina 921 15.4 5.3
Cole Aldrich FR 2008 Kansas 330 14.4 5.0
Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut 1166 14.2 4.9
Tony Bradley FR North Carolina 525 13.9 4.8

This is where North Carolina must continue to dominate to have a chance to claim that championship.

Ball Handling & Passing
Player Cla Team MP Ast/40 TO/40 BH
Ty Lawson JR 2009 UNC 1048 8.8 2.5 7.0
Anthony Epps JR 1996 Kentucky 818 8.6 2.6 6.8
Steve Blake JR 2002 Maryland 1153 9.9 4.0 6.5
Taliek Brown SR 2004 Connecticut 1188 8.5 3.2 6.4
Marcus Williams FR 2004 Connecticut 226 12.2 6.7 6.4
Mateen Cleaves SR 2000 Michigan St. 820 8.7 4.6 5.8
Tyus Jones FR 2015 Duke 1322 6.6 2.3 5.3
Peyton Siva SR 2013 Louisville 1247 7.3 3.4 5.1
Jon Scheyer SR 2010 Duke 1470 5.3 1.8 4.5
Raymond Felton JR 2005 UNC 1142 8.7 4.5 4.5
Chris Duhon FR 2001 Duke 1086 6.4 2.2 4.4
Theo Pinson JR North Carolina 442 6.3 2.6 3.9

There is no great “true” pass first point guard in this Final 4.

Defensive Stops
Player Cla Team MP Stl/40 Blk/40 PF/40
Anthony Davis FR 2012 Kentucky 1281 1.7 5.8 2.4
Emeka Okafor JR 2004 Connecticut 1166 1.2 5.0 2.9
Joakim Noah SO 2006 Florida 972 1.8 3.9 3.5
Gorgui Dieng JR 2013 Louisville 1026 1.7 3.2 3.3
Shane Battier SR 2001 Duke 1364 2.4 2.6 2.3
Nazr Mohammed JR 1998 Kentucky 819 1.8 3.7 4.4
Jeremy McNeil JR 2003 Syracuse 657 0.5 6.1 6.8
E.J. Harrison SR 1999 Connecticut 210 3.4 0.6 3.4
Jordan Bell JR Oregon 1089 1.8 3.0 2.5
Amida Brimah FR 2014 Connecticut 649 0.2 5.7 7.1
Mario Chalmers JR 2008 Kansas 1170 3.3 0.8 3.4
Cole Aldrich FR 2008 Kansas 330 1.3 4.1 5.8
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 1014 2.6 1.1 2.7

Jordan Bell creates havoc as a rim protector and defender. Coach Martin has said often that his team’s elite defense starts with Sindarius Thornwell – and his defensive stops production bears that out.

“_____ is the the NCAA top 30 teams as ______ was to the NBA”

Included in the spreadsheet, which was no small undertaking, are historic NBA player comps. I took every rotation guy in this Final 4, & ran his rating skillset breakdowns in 18 categories to the average of the Top 30 NCAA teams. I then compared those results to EVERY NBA player season (> 500 minutes) since 1980. That’s almost half a million combinations. I included the top 10 historic NBA comps for every rotation guy on page 4 of the worksheet, with the top comp season on the main sheet 1.

Note that Superstar players or very poor players (relative to their peers obviously) will have lower Comp%’s – where 100% would be a perfect comp match they very well may be low 80s to even mid 70s. Much of the over 110 thousand player seasons were mediocre at best – so players WAY above or below that mediocre threshold just won’t have nearly as many “close” comps.

All that being said – while Sindarius Thornwell isn’t exactly a perfect match for Kevin Durant (his top 3 matches are prime KD seasons with OKC), his relative IMPACT he has on his team would be more similar to what KD had on OKC than any other historic NBA player had on theirs. Just looking at the strength of Sindarius’ comp list screams college superstar, even if he isn’t incredibly similar to any single past NBA player (78.4% comp% down to 75% at #10):

NBA Comp Year Age Tm
Kevin Durant 2014 25 OKC
Kevin Durant 2013 24 OKC
Kevin Durant 2015 26 OKC
Kevin Love 2014 25 MIN
LeBron James 2009 24 CLE
Kawhi Leonard 2016 24 SAS
Tracy McGrady 2003 23 ORL
Kevin Durant 2016 27 OKC
Paul Pierce 2003 25 BOS
Scottie Pippen* 1995 29 CHI

Nigel Williams-Goss, the second best player left in this tourney:

Anfernee Hardaway 1996 24 ORL
Terrell Brandon 1996 25 CLE
LeBron James 2005 20 CLE
Terrell Brandon 1997 26 CLE
Terrell Brandon 1995 24 CLE
Rod Strickland 1995 28 POR
Jason Kidd 2003 29 NJN
Gary Payton* 2000 31 SEA
Clyde Drexler* 1992 29 POR
Tim Hardaway 1991 24 GSW

Now, Nigel is much more similar to the players on his list, 90.7 comp% down to 86.9%

Here’s the top NBA comp for every rotation guy you’ll see later today. I listed the players by mpg for their team, & included the HnI for both them (college HnI, 100 D1 average) & their comp (NBA HnI, 100 NBA average). All the other pertinent stats are in the spreadsheet if you so desire to see more).

HnI Player Cla Team Top NBA Comp Year Age Tm HnI Comp%
168.5 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga Anfernee Hardaway 1996 24 ORL 137 90.7%
128.1 Josh Perkins SO Gonzaga Matt Maloney 1997 25 HOU 96 89.5%
130.2 Jordan Mathews SR Gonzaga J.R. Smith 2016 30 CLE 99 93.0%
138.9 Johnathan Williams JR Gonzaga Emeka Okafor 2008 25 CHA 105 94.1%
121.1 Silas Melson JR Gonzaga Jared Dudley 2014 28 LAC 84 95.2%
151.4 Przemek Karnowski SR Gonzaga Shaquille O’Neal* 2007 34 MIA 119 87.6%
158.4 Zach Collins FR Gonzaga Hassan Whiteside 2015 25 MIA 129 84.8%
135.3 Killian Tillie FR Gonzaga Derrick Coleman 2003 35 PHI 101 89.5%
150.0 Justin Jackson JR North Carolina Ray Allen 2005 29 SEA 122 89.8%
144.1 Joel Berry JR North Carolina Tim Hardaway 2001 34 MIA 112 91.4%
163.8 Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina Al Jefferson 2008 23 MIN 126 87.2%
128.8 Theo Pinson JR North Carolina Haywoode Workman 1999 33 MIL 100 91.1%
148.0 Isaiah Hicks SR North Carolina Rik Smits 1995 28 IND 119 90.9%
113.1 Nate Britt SR North Carolina Ronnie Price 2015 31 LAL 83 92.4%
150.9 Tony Bradley FR North Carolina Enes Kanter 2016 23 OKC 119 86.6%
138.2 Luke Maye SO North Carolina Jared Sullinger 2014 21 BOS 105 89.8%
83.9 Seventh Woods FR North Carolina Del Beshore 1980 23 CHI 65 79.4%
126.4 Dylan Ennis SR Oregon Metta World Peace 2010 30 LAL 98 94.7%
127.6 Tyler Dorsey SO Oregon Gerald Green 2014 28 PHO 104 94.3%
157.0 Jordan Bell JR Oregon Andrew Bynum 2008 20 LAL 125 89.8%
122.9 Payton Pritchard FR Oregon Chris Duhon 2005 22 CHI 94 94.8%
153.4 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon Kyrie Irving 2013 20 CLE 125 88.7%
108.7 Casey Benson JR Oregon DeShawn Stevenson 2009 27 WAS 75 93.4%
102.1 Kavell Bigby-Williams JR Oregon Jamaal Magloire 2007 28 POR 88 86.7%
88.9 Keith Smith FR Oregon Boris Diaw 2005 22 ATL 80 89.1%
210.1 Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina Kevin Durant 2014 25 OKC 162 78.4%
119.4 Duane Notice SR South Carolina Daniel Gibson 2008 21 CLE 91 93.7%
136.7 PJ Dozier SO South Carolina Kobe Bryant 2015 36 LAL 109 87.1%
107.9 Maik Kotsar FR South Carolina Olden Polynice 2001 36 UTA 85 91.5%
140.8 Chris Silva SO South Carolina Alonzo Mourning* 1998 27 MIA 130 81.7%
83.3 Hassani Gravett SO South Carolina Dante Exum 2015 19 UTA 73 89.7%
104.9 Justin McKie SR South Carolina Anthony Peeler 2005 35 WAS 79 93.5%
116.5 Rakym Felder FR South Carolina Greg Sutton 1996 28 PHI 85 89.0%
58.8 Sedee Keita FR South Carolina Ron Cavenall 1985 25 NYK 58 84.4%
The Predictions:

On sheet #2 of the spreadsheet I included the general team ratings of the past 21 NCAA champs with the current Final 4 teams, as well as the optimized player minutes ratings of the current Final 4. Using the optimized ratings (accounting for injured players, more star player PT due to more tv timeouts, & tighter “going for it all” rotations) – here’s the predicted final scores:

Gonzaga 70.2, South Carolina 67.3

North Carolina 79.5, Oregon 73.5

If you enjoyed my very unique take on the Final 4 players – PLEASE spread the word (Twitter, Reddit, etc.). I better post this while I still have an internet window. Thanks!

Dan

Sweet 16 Player Ratings, Game Predictions, NBA Player Comps, & the Kitchen Sink

OK, ALL the gory player rating details are in the following spreadsheet, with all the player rating & ranking breakdowns. Be aware, I included a sheet that contains EVERY player comp % for every player > 100 minutes in the Sweet 16 with every NBA player currently > 500 minutes on the season. [3/24 EDIT: those comps have already been tweaked & improved, so the info in the spreadsheet already isn’t the best version. Happens sometimes when I rush. Oh well. Future comps will be the improved version] That’s 52,772 lines of player comps. I included all the info for those who may find it fun to find the very worst comps – or for those who want to see ANY possible combination of Sweet 16 & NBA player.

2017Sweet16PlayerRatingsPOST

On to the fun.

The All Sweet 16 Teams. Yes, MANY different “teams”.

OK, here come a multitude of unconventional ways to look at the best players left in this tourney – by exploring various All Sweet 16 lineups. I didn’t just pick the top 5 guys for every lineup (all you have to do is sort the spreadsheet for that) – I put together the top 5 guys for every category who ALSO would be a viable lineup across the entire rating spectrum. I made sure EVERY lineup was BETTER than Sweet 16 average in ALL these rating subsets: 2pt production, 3pt production, FT production, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, & ball handling (assists & turnovers).

Those rules being set, here’s the All Sweet 16 teams:

The Overall All Sweet 16 Teams:
HnI 1st Team Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
207 Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
190 Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
174 Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
168 Frank Mason SR Kansas 36.1 20.8 4.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 2.4 2.1 0.613
169 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
HnI 2nd Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
169 Johnathan Motley JR Baylor 30.4 17.3 9.9 2.4 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.1 0.566
164 Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina 23.9 12.7 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.3 0.558
157 Derrick Walton SR Michigan 34.8 15.4 4.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.612
157 Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
156 Jevon Carter JR West Virginia 31.8 13.3 4.9 3.8 2.5 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.570
HnI 3rd Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
159 Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 17.3 10.3 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 2.5 0.698
155 Josh Jackson FR Kansas 30.6 16.6 7.1 2.9 1.6 1.1 2.7 3.0 0.558
155 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
154 De’Aaron Fox FR Kentucky 29.4 16.1 4.0 4.6 1.4 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.537
145 Joel Berry JR North Carolina 29.9 14.4 3.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 1.8 2.2 0.580
HnI 4th Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
156 Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
154 Allonzo Trier SO Arizona 31.6 17.1 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.614
153 Jordan Bell JR Oregon 28.4 10.8 8.3 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.646
150 Malik Monk FR Kentucky 32.1 20.0 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.582
143 Chris Chiozza JR Florida 21.8 7.1 3.3 3.7 1.3 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.541
HnI 5th Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
151 Tony Bradley FR North Carolina 15.0 7.5 5.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.8 0.593
151 Przemek Karnowski SR Gonzaga 22.8 12.4 5.9 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 0.598
149 Justin Jackson JR North Carolina 31.5 18.1 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.558
141 Tarik Phillip SR West Virginia 24.3 9.6 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.539
140 KeVaughn Allen SO Florida 28.4 13.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.583
HnI Honorable Mention Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
149 Isaiah Hicks SR North Carolina 23.4 12.4 5.7 1.4 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.0 0.640
148 Edrice Adebayo FR Kentucky 29.8 13.3 8.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.7 0.620
147 TJ Leaf FR UCLA 29.8 16.2 8.2 2.5 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.6 0.656
145 Devin Robinson JR Florida 26.4 11.4 6.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.2 0.575
142 Kevarrius Hayes SO Florida 17.4 6.1 4.3 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 2.4 0.624
142 Canyon Barry SR Florida 21.5 11.8 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.565
142 Isaac Haas JR Purdue 19.5 12.6 5.1 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.619
142 Vince Edwards JR Purdue 28.6 12.7 5.0 3.2 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.591
142 Nigel Hayes SR Wisconsin 32.3 13.8 6.6 2.7 0.8 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.504

Breakdown by team:

North Carolina: 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 5ths, 1 honorable mention

Florida: 1 4th, 1 5th, 3 honorable mentions

Gonzaga: 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 5th

Purdue: 1 1st, 2 honorable mentions

Kentucky: 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 honorable mention

Kansas: 1 1st, 1 3rd

Wisconsin: 1 1st, 1 honorable mention

West Virginia: 1 2nd, 1 5th

Oregon: 1 3rd, 1 4th

UCLA: 1 2nd, 1 honorable mention

Arizona: 2 4ths

South Carolina: 1 1st

Baylor: 1 2nd

Michigan: 1 2nd

Butler & Xavier did not have a player make the list.

All Scoring Rating lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 17.3 10.3 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 2.5 0.698
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Frank Mason SR Kansas 36.1 20.8 4.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 2.4 2.1 0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
All 2pt Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Isaac Haas JR Purdue 19.5 12.6 5.1 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.619
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
All Free Throw Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Allonzo Trier SO Arizona 31.6 17.1 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.614
Canyon Barry SR Florida 21.5 11.8 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.565
Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
All 3pt Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Derrick Walton SR Michigan 34.8 15.4 4.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.612
Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Derek Willis SR Kentucky 21.9 7.0 5.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.620
All Rebounding Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina 23.9 12.7 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.3 0.558
Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Chris Chiozza JR Florida 21.8 7.1 3.3 3.7 1.3 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.541
All Handles/Passing lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Tyler Lewis SR Butler 21.8 6.5 1.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.636
Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
Parker Jackson-Cartwright JR Arizona 24.9 5.9 2.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.575
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
All Defensive Stops lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sagaba Konate FR West Virginia 10.9 4.1 2.9 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.573
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Jevon Carter JR West Virginia 31.8 13.3 4.9 3.8 2.5 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.570
Devonte’ Graham JR Kansas 35.2 13.3 3.2 4.3 1.6 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.588

Here’s something that needs to be noted about the greatness of Sindarius Thornwell – he is such an all-around great college player, than in order to make a lineup that excelled at any one skillset WHILE still being Sweet 16 above average across the board, he needed to be included. Not in one or two lineups – but in each & every one of them. I had no idea it would play out that way, but now his incredible overall rating makes even more sense to me.

Sweet 16 NBA Player Comps

[3/24 EDIT: I’m leaving this info, but I have already improved the comp modeling, which was giving too much disproportionate credit to scoring ratings & not enough toward the non scoring. If I had completed the comps a day earlier, I would have caught the error in weight. My bad.] I’d love to go into much greater details about the player comps in the spreadsheet, but I don’t nearly have the time and honestly have no clue where to start. Understand that these comps are based off 14 rating breakdowns, ratings adjusted for pace, SoS, team quality, etc. These Sweet 16 players ratings are relative to other Sweet 16 guys – thus I’m creating a “____ is to this Sweet 16 as ____ is to the NBA right now”.

These are statistical ratings (ABSOLUTELY NOT FUTURE NBA PROJECTIONS) – so it is very feasible for a 6’4″ NCAA guard who doesn’t hit many threes or get many assists, & rebounds well may find his best stat comp being a weaker rebounding NBA power forward. Take note of the Comp%, anything heading down into the mid 80s or lower starts matching players who are only really partly similar. I’m doing this to help people who are very familiar with NBA players understand what type of statistical impact to expect from some of these college guys they may not be as familiar with.

Due to lack of time & space, I will note three big name guys here for fun, & allow you to sort through the spreadsheet for any other comps you may want to find.

First, Lonzo Ball, like many “unique” college players (see Ethan Happ), has NO good comps (all below 85%). I believe this is due to his low FT rate (low frequency) with just a slightly above average overall scoring production, but with strong efficiencies & high assist rate. His comps look quite meh (no stars), he just honestly needed to score quite a bit more (even if there was some efficiency drop) to see star NBA point guard comps [3/24 Edit: his new comps are Rubio at 84.1%, Chris Paul at 82.9%, JJ Barea at 82.3%, Jeff Teague at 81.5%, then Sergio listed below at 81.2%]:

Sergio Rodriguez PG 30 PHI 85.0%
Yogi Ferrell PG 23 DAL 82.4%
Ricky Rubio PG 26 MIN 82.3%
Brandon Jennings PG 27 WAS 82.2%

His worst comp in the NBA is Anthony Davis, at 37%.

The guy I’ve been telling everyone for a while is the best player in all of college basketball (and it’s almost not close), Sindarius Thornwell, has the following comps [3/24 Update: Kawhi still #1 comp at 82.9%, Cousins 78.6%, Durant 77.9%, Butler 75.8%, Hayward 75.0%]:

Kawhi Leonard SF 25 SAS 85.6%
DeMarcus Cousins C 26 NOP 80.7%
Gordon Hayward SF 26 UTA 79.8%
Jimmy Butler SF 27 CHI 79.6%
Kevin Durant SF 28 GSW 77.7%

His comp% are also not strong, although Kawhi does stand out from all others – and is the best comp (highest comp%) from any player in this tourney to any NBA superstar (of the Westbrooks, Hardens, LeBrons, Kawhis, Durants, Stephs, Isaiahs, etc). Sindarius is above to WAY above average compared to the average Sweet 16 player in EVERY rating breakdown. That makes it hard to find a good comp, & the best ones you do find will be very good. His worst NBA comp is JR Smith at 36.5%

I’ll include De’Aaron Fox, since his comps made me laugh [3/24 Update: Wall 86.3, Griffin 85.2%, Wade 84.4%, Dragic 83.8%, Bledsoe 83.4%, Teague 83.2%]:

Blake Griffin PF 27 LAC 85.9%
Dwyane Wade SG 35 CHI 84.8%
John Wall PG 26 WAS 84.1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SF 22 MIL 83.2%
Derrick Rose PG 28 NYK 82.4%

If we threw out the big disparity in rebounding, Fox & Blake Griffin would be great comps. Even including the rebounding, Blake is still the top comp.  Blake’s best comp in this tourney is actually Nigel Hayes at 88.2%.

Probably the best comp to an NBA star is Frank Mason to Mike Conley, at 91%. Or, maybe Malik Monk to Bradley Beal at 90.5 [3/24 Edit: these last three comps I mention are still true, just with slightly different %’s].

That being said, just have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined…

I am going to leave this for now, I have a baseball game to coach. I will end with the general team ratings, and optimized lineup team ratings (as described in my tourney write up)

Rating Rank Team Optimized Rank Diff
136.4 2 North Carolina 144.1 1 7.7
138.8 1 Gonzaga 143.5 2 4.8
135.8 3 West Virginia 139.4 3 3.6
135.3 4 Kentucky 139.2 4 3.9
135.1 5 Kansas 138.6 5 3.6
133.6 6 Florida 137.4 6 3.8
121.9 15 South Carolina 136.4 7 14.6
128.9 11 Wisconsin 136.1 8 7.2
128.4 12 Arizona 135.9 9 7.6
130.8 7 Purdue 134.9 10 4.0
129.9 10 Baylor 134.2 11 4.3
130.1 9 UCLA 133.7 12 3.6
126.7 13 Michigan 132.1 13 5.4
130.2 8 Oregon 131.7 14 1.5
125.1 14 Butler 129.2 15 4.1
121.1 16 Xavier 120.4 16 -0.7

The low difference between optimized and seasonal ratings for Oregon and Xavier are due to missing key players (Boucher & Sumner). South Carolina has Sindarius playing big minutes, they are much stronger right (as long as he stays out of any foul trouble) now than their seasonal rating (when Sindarius missed games) would suggest.

Using the optimized lineup data above, working with the Vegas O/U (so I don’t have to try to compute predicted game pace, that’s a bit of a pain in the ass), here’s the predicted outcomes of all the Sweet 16 games.

Predictions:

Michigan 74.1, Oregon 73.9

Gonzaga 76.1, West Virginia 73.9

Kansas 78.8, Purdue 76.7

Arizona 76.6, Xavier 67.9

North Carolina 80.9, Butler 72.6

South Carolina 68.3, Baylor 67.2

Kentucky 84.4, UCLA 81.1

Florida 66.1, Wisconsin 65.4

I hope you enjoyed my pu pu platter of information & data, please hit me up on twitter & spread the word if you did indeed find the info enlighting/interesting/unique/etc. Just trying to offer approaches to learning about players analytically – offering something that just can’t be found anywhere else.

Dan