Category Archives: Pac 12

Final Pac 12 Player WAR Rankings

(I will be crunching the numbers and giving complete player rankings for EVERY D1 conference, using conference only stats and win/loss results as each conference regular season ends. The “write ups” will follow pretty similar formats, since I don’t really have the time to spend much time with each write up. Will obviously tweet out results as usual as soon as each post is up. At the end of each conference write up, I will try to include links to all conference write ups that have already been posted – and maybe an ETA for the next conference.)

Click the following link for ALL the data in excel, fully sortable – including an FAQ sheet:

2017Pac12PlayerWARranking

What we may garner from the above results….

1st Team All Conference:
WAR Rk WAR/40 Rk HnI Rk   Player Yr School G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
4.80 1 5.46 1 148 5 Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 18 35.2 15.7 6.5 7.4 2.3 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.679
4.30 2 5.18 4 148 3 Ivan Rabb SO California 18 33.7 14.1 11.4 1.7 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.9 0.541
3.68 4 5.20 3 148 4 Jordan Bell JR Oregon 18 28.3 11.2 7.6 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.9 0.660
3.60 5 4.30 10 150 2 Derrick White SR Colorado 18 33.9 18.5 3.9 4.6 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.0 0.610
3.26 7 5.42 2 151 1 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 17 25.5 17.9 2.9 2.8 1.2 0.5 1.9 2.8 0.650
Honorable Mention
4.00 3 4.45 8 123 15 Josh Hawkinson SR WSU 18 36.2 15.8 9.7 2.7 0.5 0.6 2.0 2.4 0.654

I moved Dillon Brooks & his superb per minute ratings up to the first team, dropping Hawkinson, who (theoretically) solely accounted for an amazing 4 of his team’s 6 wins. It’s fairly shocking WSU somehow won 6 games with their poor offensive & defensive efficiencies, which then inflated the WAR of their top player a little bit.

Player of the Year:  Lonzo Ball #1 in Wins Above Replacement (4.8) & WAR/40 (5.5). Special mention to Dillon Brooks who was #1 in HnI (151).

 

Players who topped the conference in something or another in terms of rating subsets:

(value is in “Points Added” to average conference lineup per 70 possessions)

Lonzo Ball of UCLA: #1 in Handles/Passing Rating (Assists & Turnovers, +4.3 PA)

Ivan Rabb of Cal: #1 in Rebound Rating (+5.9 PA)

Jordan Bell of Oregon: #1 in Defensive Stops Rating (steals, blocks, & fouls, +3.2 PA)

Dillon Brooks of Oregon: #1 in overall Scoring Rating (+11.0 PA)

Reid Travis of Stanford: #1 in Two Point Production Rating (+8.7 PA)

Bryce Alford of UCLA: #1 in Three Point Production Rating (+6.8 PA)

Bennie Boatwright of USC: #1 in Free Throw Production Rating (+4.5 PA)

Previous Final 2017 Conference Player WAR Ranking links:

Actually, this is my first 2017 conference WAR write up, but as I progress this will fill up with clickable links to every complete conference.

Dan

Current Pac 12 Player Ratings & Rankings

Here’s the spreadsheet – 102 Pac 12 players ranked (minimum 99 minutes) by HnR. Included are the Points Added breakdowns for every statistical skill set (based on average Pac 12 lineup, 70 possessions):

 12-23-15Pac12PlayerRankingsPost

Quick glimpse at the highs and lows of the skill sets by points added (102 players with minimum 99 minutes) :

#1 2pt production: Poeltl (Utah) +8.5, #102 Bruce (OSU) -5.8

#1 FT production: Andrews (UW) +4.3, #102 Pitts (Arizona) -2.5

#1 3pt production: King (Colorado) +5.1, #102 Pitts (Arizona) -3.5

#1 Overall scoring (above 3 skill sets combined): Poeltl (Utah) +7.7, #102 Pitts (Arizona) -8.6

#1 Rebounding: Clark (USC) +4.8, #102 Callison (WSU) -2.7

#1 Assist – Turnover production: Jacobs (USC) +5.2, #102 Clark (USC) -3.8

#1 Defensive stops (Bk, St, fouls): Izundu (WSU) +3.9, #102 Clifford (WSU) -2.7

Again, the spreadsheet link above is sortable about any way you can imagine, enjoy.

I’m doing this a little different than in the past – I’m keeping all the normal stats in the excel file (from basketball-reference) – since that is a common source for many people. My player listings will perfectly match anyone else’s who may be working with data from b-r. Easy for stat comps.

If you have any questions about anything, hit me up on twitter or email me from the contact info page above.

Dan

Current Pac 12 Player Ratings & Rankings

Again, still too early – team ratings still a bit unreliable for probably another three weeks. But, that’s ok, gonna rank the players anyway.

I put together a spreadsheet with ALL the stats & ratings for every qualified Pac 12 player (min 64 minutes played – 102 players in all). All completely sortable. Note two sheets on the spreadsheet, the second ranking all 102 players by all 7 rating skill sets – so 714 spots of ranking in total:

12-9-15Pac12PlayerRankingsPost

I do quite a bit of lineup optimization work that I never post – part of why I’m showing the rating breakdowns in greater detail (for those who think I’m married to some single rating – not telling the larger story of a player). I also converted the ratings into a points added value to HOPEFULLY make it easier for the average fan to understand.

So, now anyone can put together any combination of 5 player lineup they’d like from the info I give – and see where the lineup’s weaknesses & strengths may be.

For those that don’t want to see ALL the rankings in their gory detail, here’s the top 10 with the basic per game stats (HnR: 100 D1 average, 115 Pac 12 average):

Rank HnR Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
1 191 Jakob Poeltl SO Utah 30.0 21.3 9.9 1.9 0.8 2.5 1.6 0.685
2 183 Andrew Andrews SR Washington 31.4 22.1 7.3 3.8 1.5 0.0 1.9 0.590
3 176 Josh Scott SR Colorado 30.0 18.3 9.8 1.8 0.6 2.3 1.5 0.682
4 175 Gary Payton SR Oregon St. 34.7 16.4 8.1 4.9 3.3 1.1 2.6 0.587
5 165 Ryan Anderson SR Arizona 29.3 15.6 9.6 0.6 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.562
6 158 Tyrone Wallace SR Cal 33.3 19.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 0.4 2.4 0.551
7 152 Chris Boucher JR Oregon 28.1 12.6 8.5 0.3 1.0 3.9 1.8 0.594
8 151 Ivan Rabb FR Cal 24.5 12.5 7.9 1.0 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.694
9 147 Kadeem Allen JR Arizona 20.9 7.0 3.9 3.5 1.6 0.6 1.8 0.491
10 144 Josh Hawkinson JR WSU 27.0 16.4 9.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.651

Here’s the top 22 best Pac 12 skill sets by points added (the top in every skill set represented):

Points Added to Average Pac 12 Lineup (70 possessions) by Skill Set
Rank Player Cla Team PtAdd Statistical Skill Set
1 Jakob Poeltl SO Utah 9.4 Two Point Production (2pt)
2 Savon Goodman JR ASU 8.9 Two Point Production (2pt)
3 Stephen Thompson Jr. FR Oregon St. 8.0 Three Point Production (3pt)
4 Brandon Taylor SR Utah 7.0 None Box Score Adjustment (Int)
5 Josh Scott SR Colorado 6.8 Two Point Production (2pt)
6 Ivan Rabb FR Cal 6.6 Two Point Production (2pt)
7 Thomas Welsh SO UCLA 6.1 Two Point Production (2pt)
8 Jordan Loveridge SR Utah 5.8 Three Point Production (3pt)
9 Dusan Ristic SO Arizona 5.7 Rebounding (Reb)
10 Andrew Andrews SR Washington 5.6 Free Throw Production (FT)
11 Gabe York SR Arizona 5.2 Three Point Production (3pt)
12 Michael Humphrey SO Stanford 5.2 Two Point Production (2pt)
13 Elliott Pitts JR Arizona 5.1 None Box Score Adjustment (Int)
14 Conor Clifford JR WSU 5.0 Two Point Production (2pt)
15 Drew Eubanks FR Oregon St. 5.0 Two Point Production (2pt)
16 Josh Hawkinson JR WSU 4.9 Two Point Production (2pt)
17 Dwayne Benjamin SR Oregon 4.9 Three Point Production (3pt)
18 Tony Parker SR UCLA 4.8 Two Point Production (2pt)
19 Ryan Anderson SR Arizona 4.6 Two Point Production (2pt)
20 Tony Parker SR UCLA 4.6 Rebounding (Reb)
21 Valentine Izundu JR WSU 4.5 Defensive Stops & Fouls (Def)
22 Parker Jackson-Cartwright SO Arizona 4.5 Assists & Turnovers (BH)

That none box score adjustment (Int as a header, “intangibles”) is a way to quantify the expected unknown value of a player not represented by his per minute production. High production guys who don’t play massive minutes will be negative as their overall rating is regressed closer to team mean (Maybe poor defender? Mediocre cardio? Injury prone?). Big minute guys with poor per production will be positive here as their rating relative to playing time is regressed toward team rating, the assumption being they must be doing things well not represented in the box score (Lock down or great team defender? Hustle, glue guy coach loves?).

Anyway, I’m trying to find the best way to present player rankings before I get into the complete national rankings (where about 3000 players will be ranked) in a few weeks. I feel I may be getting closer to how my national ranking spreadsheets will look. Let me know what you think.

Dan