Category Archives: Arizona Wildcats

The Arizona Wildcats vs. Mt. St. Mary’s

First REAL game of the season!  I was looking up the ratings real quick for Mt. St. Mary’s, when I realized I might as well share what data I do have.

Ken Pomeroy has Arizona winning 84-61.  Using the same point totals – based on the quality of these teams LAST season, I come up with a 86-59.

Now, I don’t even try to run player projections on freshmen, and I haven’t yet developed a class base projection system since I still haven’t rated all D1 player back to 1997 to come up with my conversions.  BUT, I do have last season ratings for the returning players for both teams – as well as the ratings for for the Mountaineers two transfers from ’13.  I figure the ratio of talent for the returning players is probably similar to the ratio of talent for the new guys, I could come up with a reasonable estimate on an expected point spread – as well as compare these players I do have ratings for.

So, no Stanley Johnson rated below, Arizona’s super frosh.  No Dusan Ristic, Craig Victor, or Parker Jackson-Cartwright either for that matter.  No Mt. St. Mary’s frosh.  But, here are the rest, ranked by last season’s HnI (ignores games missed due to injury or suspension) & followed by the garbage minute guys:

Player Team Min Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnI
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 960 25.3 9.1 5.7 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.538 142
T.J. McConnell Arizona 1225 32.2 8.4 3.6 5.3 1.7 0.2 1.8 0.526 140
Brandon Ashley Arizona 609 27.7 11.5 5.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.588 137
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 1020 28.3 9.9 6.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.625 132
Gabe York Arizona 828 21.8 6.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.518 124
Matt Korcheck Arizona 102 4.6 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.667 119
Taylor Danaher MSMU 788 23.9 7.1 5.0 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.659 91
Kristijan Krajina MSMU 117 16.7 5.7 4.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.606 90
Gregory Graves MSMU 717 21.7 6.5 5.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.536 89
Elliott Pitts Arizona 201 8.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.564 86
Byron Ashe MSMU 684 22.1 7.0 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.520 81
Will Miller MSMU 518 15.7 5.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.587 80
Khalid Nwandu MSMU 453 15.1 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.4 0.468 61
Chris Martin MSMU 347 15.1 3.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.3 0.375 51
Jacob Hazzard Arizona 29 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.588 138
Trey Mason Arizona 22 2.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.833 103
Drew Mellon Arizona 12 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.250 56
Aaron Brown MSMU 30 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.522 49
Liam McManimon MSMU 62 4.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.273 34
Andy Smeathers MSMU 48 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.352 24
Maalik Howard MSMU 56 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5

Not surprisingly, all the top rated players are Wildcats.  MSMU lost it’s two best players last season, so their best returning players rated almost 10% worst than the average D1 player last year.

The rest of the way here I’ll only deal with non garbage time guys. I’ll keep Korcheck in here for fun, at least he reached triple digits in total minutes.  Here are players with their ratings broken down:

Player Team Min Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df HnI
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona 960 75 46 29 0 49 7 18 142
T.J. McConnell Arizona 1225 53 28 6 18 21 50 20 140
Brandon Ashley Arizona 609 96 57 27 12 44 -9 8 137
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 1020 86 58 29 0 47 -17 5 132
Gabe York Arizona 828 61 3 11 47 20 22 5 124
Matt Korcheck Arizona 102 61 41 20 0 63 -15 9 119
Taylor Danaher MSMU 788 58 38 19 0 34 -10 12 91
Kristijan Krajina MSMU 117 61 48 6 7 39 -5 -4 90
Gregory Graves MSMU 717 46 25 18 3 41 -6 9 89
Elliott Pitts Arizona 201 48 9 1 38 25 1 -1 86
Byron Ashe MSMU 684 47 7 7 33 15 2 4 81
Will Miller MSMU 518 62 0 5 56 13 3 -3 80
Khalid Nwandu MSMU 453 20 7 12 2 16 -3 8 61
Chris Martin MSMU 347 14 -1 3 12 9 -9 10 51

Ashley, Tarczewski, and Hollis-Jefferson stand out as the top scorers of this group.  They have the top ratings from 2pt range as well as from the line.

MSMU’s Will Miller is their three point specialist.  Byron Ashe is three capable.  York and Pitts of Arizona fall in between the two in terms of 3pt rating,

The top 5 rebounders in terms of rating are all Wildcats.  The Mountaineers better have some active frosh bigs if they want to keep up on the boards.

Obviously the Mountaineers will be running a frosh point guard out there – because none of their guys I list above are points.  McConnell might dominate this game.

In terms of defensive stops – McConnell and Hollis-Jefferson create the most havoc.

If I were to take the ratings across the board, weighted by last season’s minutes – here’s what we get:

Team Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df HnI
Arizona 70.8 36.4 18.4 16.0 35.4 12.5 11.5 132.9
MSMU 43.6 16.6 11.5 15.5 23.7 -4.3 6.4 76.8

Based on the returning players, Arizona should completely dominate in the paint offensively, dominate at the line, dominate on the boards.  Arizona should create more steals and block more shots.  I know, tell you something you didn’t know – but I’m just confirming it with the numbers.

NMSU needs to be hot from three point range.  They need their frosh who is at point to not get completely overrun by McConnell on either end.  They need their frosh bigs to bang and rebound.  Maybe, then, they can keep the game under a 20 point spread in the end.

Based on the returning players and using their ratings from last season – I would project a final score of 92-53.  I don’t think it’ll be THAT bad, I expect the MSMU frosh to contribute a bit more relative to their team than the Arizona frosh will (they better) – even with Stanimal playing his first game as a Wildcat.

Beardown!

Dan

Sweet 16: Arizona vs. San Diego State

Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):

the NCAA Tourney player performance rankings,

the complete national player ratings/rankings (thru 3-25, 3064 players ranked),

a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,

and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups –  and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.

And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla GP HnI Mn/g Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Xavier Thames SDSU Sr. 35 169 31.2 22.2 3.8 4.2 2.2 0.2 1.8 0.552
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 36 157 32.6 20.0 4.8 3.4 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.552
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 36 148 30.8 16.1 10.1 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.9 0.497
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 36 144 32.0 10.5 4.5 6.8 2.2 0.3 2.2 0.530
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 36 143 25.0 14.3 9.1 2.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.532
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 22 138 27.7 16.6 8.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 2.4 0.588
Dwayne Polee II SDSU Jr. 32 137 17.7 19.0 7.4 0.9 2.4 1.2 2.2 0.575
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 34 134 28.5 14.0 9.1 0.7 0.2 1.4 2.4 0.621
Winston Shepard SDSU So. 34 129 26.6 17.6 7.4 3.2 1.5 0.5 3.4 0.473
Gabe York Arizona So. 36 127 21.4 13.0 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.530
Josh Davis SDSU Sr. 33 123 30.3 10.3 13.1 1.1 1.4 0.6 1.8 0.459
Skylar Spencer SDSU So. 35 120 23.9 8.0 7.1 0.4 1.2 4.2 1.3 0.549
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 22 119 4.6 9.4 11.8 0.8 0.8 2.0 2.4 0.667
J.J. O’Brien SDSU Jr. 34 119 27.7 11.4 6.8 1.6 1.0 0.5 2.0 0.508
Aqeel Quinn SDSU Jr. 31 110 16.5 12.6 4.0 2.4 1.8 0.2 1.8 0.489
Matt Shrigley SDSU Fr. 35 108 15.9 13.5 4.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.521
Dakarai Allen SDSU Fr. 29 94 10.6 9.5 4.4 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.8 0.448
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 22 81 8.6 8.0 4.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.3 0.528
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 32 75 5.7 8.7 3.5 3.7 2.0 0.0 2.6 0.388

Brandon Ashley won’t be playing for Arizona due to injury.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Player Team Cla M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Xavier Thames SDSU Sr. 38 169 120 30 53 37 19 28 21
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 34 157 107 41 33 33 24 16 18
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 34 148 74 58 9 7 54 9 17
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 34 144 53 30 6 17 21 53 21
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 27 143 73 46 27 0 50 7 19
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 0 138 96 57 27 12 44 -9 8
Dwayne Polee II SDSU Jr. 30 137 107 45 23 39 37 -12 28
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 32 134 86 56 30 0 49 -17 5
Winston Shepard SDSU So. 22 129 75 41 35 -1 40 1 18
Gabe York Arizona So. 30 127 66 5 11 50 20 21 6
Josh Davis SDSU Sr. 36 123 41 32 9 0 70 -7 15
Skylar Spencer SDSU So. 31 120 43 39 4 0 40 -9 40
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 9 119 61 41 20 0 63 -15 9
J.J. O’Brien SDSU Jr. 30 119 54 35 17 2 39 -3 9
Aqeel Quinn SDSU Jr. 12 110 57 9 15 33 20 8 14
Matt Shrigley SDSU Fr. 1 108 67 12 10 45 19 2 10
Dakarai Allen SDSU Fr. 94 36 21 16 0 26 -3 24
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 81 40 9 1 30 24 1 0
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 75 21 7 15 -1 18 14 12

Again – no Brandon Ashley this game.

What really stands out to me is that 5 of the top 6 players in terms of ball handling (ast & to with pace/SoS factored) are Arizona Wildcats.  I would assume that would be a distinct advantage for Arizona  when both teams are fighting to get good shots.  Thames needs to play every minute of those predicted 38 minutes for SDSU, getting decent looks against the #1 defensive team in the nation won’t be easy – especially if he sits at all.

 

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Arizona 141.7 76.0 39.5 19.2 17.3 37.2 14.1 14.1
SDSU 132.6 73.0 34.7 23.1 15.3 39.4 1.1 21.4

These are very similar teams – elite defensively (although Arizona is undoubtedly the best in the nation), while offensively they can struggle at times to hit shots.  Arizona’s obvious advantage in ball handling (see BH above) will probably ensure better shots and better offensive efficiency.  Mind you, I’m not saying Arizona’s offensive efficiency will be good – it just has a solid chance of not being as bad as San Diego State, an offensive challenged good team facing the best defense in the nation.

Dan

Arizona vs. Weber State

For complete national player ratings/rankings: http://hoopsnerd.com//?p=191

For a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups: http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla %Min HnI Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 0.804 157 20.0 4.9 3.4 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.551
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 0.788 147 10.7 4.6 6.9 2.2 0.3 2.3 0.534
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 0.765 143 15.7 10.1 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 0.486
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 0.443 138 16.6 8.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 2.4 0.588
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 0.619 138 13.7 9.2 2.3 1.1 1.5 1.9 0.512
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 0.661 134 14.2 9.3 0.7 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.628
Davion Berry Weber St. Sr. 0.813 131 23.1 5.2 4.8 1.2 0.2 3.4 0.631
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 0.065 129 9.8 12.0 0.9 0.9 2.2 2.2 0.647
Gabe York Arizona So. 0.521 126 12.9 4.2 2.9 0.8 0.2 1.1 0.529
Kyle Tresnak Weber St. Sr. 0.670 105 17.3 7.0 1.1 0.7 2.7 2.1 0.621
Joel Bolomboy Weber St. So. 0.708 98 11.6 14.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 2.0 0.564
Jeremy Senglin Weber St. Fr. 0.737 92 14.9 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.3 2.0 0.599
Jordan Richardson Weber St. Sr. 0.710 87 9.9 3.2 3.4 0.7 0.1 2.4 0.523
Richaud Gittens Weber St. Fr. 0.556 86 12.0 5.3 4.0 1.0 0.4 3.3 0.529
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 0.121 83 9.6 3.8 3.8 2.2 0.0 2.6 0.396
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 0.128 83 8.2 4.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 1.4 0.545
Kyndahl Hill Weber St. Fr. 0.456 80 10.4 7.6 1.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 0.578
Royce Williams Weber St. Jr. 0.189 72 10.9 4.0 2.8 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.583

Obviously Ashley is out for the season.

Rating breakdowns of the players:

Player Team Cla Min? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 34 157 108 43 35 30 24 16 17
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 33 147 55 33 6 16 22 53 22
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 32 143 70 55 10 6 54 8 15
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 0 138 97 58 27 12 45 -9 8
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 27 138 66 41 25 0 52 5 17
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 30 134 89 58 31 0 50 -18 3
Davion Berry Weber St. Sr. 34 131 110 34 47 30 18 14 7
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 6 129 63 39 23 0 65 -13 15
Gabe York Arizona So. 23 126 66 2 11 52 21 21 5
Kyle Tresnak Weber St. Sr. 28 105 81 64 17 0 28 -7 16
Joel Bolomboy Weber St. So. 30 98 49 26 22 1 59 -9 6
Jeremy Senglin Weber St. Fr. 30 92 67 15 15 37 10 10 5
Jordan Richardson Weber St. Sr. 29 87 38 3 8 27 11 10 2
Richaud Gittens Weber St. Fr. 23 86 46 19 13 14 19 8 5
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 6 83 26 10 17 -1 20 15 15
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 9 83 43 6 1 36 22 1 1
Kyndahl Hill Weber St. Fr. 19 80 45 24 13 8 32 -7 -1
Royce Williams Weber St. Jr. 7 72 48 6 9 33 13 10 -3

 

The team breakdowns by the optimal lineups:

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Arizona 137 73 38 19 16 37 13 13
Weber St. 98 64 26 20 18 25 4 6

Pomeroy has Arizona by 17.  The optimal lineups above (Min?) work out to Arizona winning by +21.0.

And, yes, I re-did a lineup with Brandon Ashley, to see how much my ratings say his injury hurts Arizona.  With Ashley at full strength, I got Arizona winning by +23.1.  So, his loss costs Arizona just over two points.

Dan