First REAL game of the season! I was looking up the ratings real quick for Mt. St. Mary’s, when I realized I might as well share what data I do have.
Ken Pomeroy has Arizona winning 84-61. Using the same point totals – based on the quality of these teams LAST season, I come up with a 86-59.
Now, I don’t even try to run player projections on freshmen, and I haven’t yet developed a class base projection system since I still haven’t rated all D1 player back to 1997 to come up with my conversions. BUT, I do have last season ratings for the returning players for both teams – as well as the ratings for for the Mountaineers two transfers from ’13. I figure the ratio of talent for the returning players is probably similar to the ratio of talent for the new guys, I could come up with a reasonable estimate on an expected point spread – as well as compare these players I do have ratings for.
So, no Stanley Johnson rated below, Arizona’s super frosh. No Dusan Ristic, Craig Victor, or Parker Jackson-Cartwright either for that matter. No Mt. St. Mary’s frosh. But, here are the rest, ranked by last season’s HnI (ignores games missed due to injury or suspension) & followed by the garbage minute guys:
Not surprisingly, all the top rated players are Wildcats. MSMU lost it’s two best players last season, so their best returning players rated almost 10% worst than the average D1 player last year.
The rest of the way here I’ll only deal with non garbage time guys. I’ll keep Korcheck in here for fun, at least he reached triple digits in total minutes. Here are players with their ratings broken down:
Ashley, Tarczewski, and Hollis-Jefferson stand out as the top scorers of this group. They have the top ratings from 2pt range as well as from the line.
MSMU’s Will Miller is their three point specialist. Byron Ashe is three capable. York and Pitts of Arizona fall in between the two in terms of 3pt rating,
The top 5 rebounders in terms of rating are all Wildcats. The Mountaineers better have some active frosh bigs if they want to keep up on the boards.
Obviously the Mountaineers will be running a frosh point guard out there – because none of their guys I list above are points. McConnell might dominate this game.
In terms of defensive stops – McConnell and Hollis-Jefferson create the most havoc.
If I were to take the ratings across the board, weighted by last season’s minutes – here’s what we get:
Based on the returning players, Arizona should completely dominate in the paint offensively, dominate at the line, dominate on the boards. Arizona should create more steals and block more shots. I know, tell you something you didn’t know – but I’m just confirming it with the numbers.
NMSU needs to be hot from three point range. They need their frosh who is at point to not get completely overrun by McConnell on either end. They need their frosh bigs to bang and rebound. Maybe, then, they can keep the game under a 20 point spread in the end.
Based on the returning players and using their ratings from last season – I would project a final score of 92-53. I don’t think it’ll be THAT bad, I expect the MSMU frosh to contribute a bit more relative to their team than the Arizona frosh will (they better) – even with Stanimal playing his first game as a Wildcat.