Category Archives: March Madness

The Sweet 16, Past Champions, & Similarity Scores

The title says it all – and it’s all in the following spreadsheet:

2016Sweet16&PastChampRatings&SimilarityScoresPost

I am literally leaving to coach baseball in about 2 minutes, no time to elaborate much at all.

Do note, the 2nd page are similarity scores between current Sweet 16 rotation players and all rotation players from the past 20 NCAA champions (stat comps adjusted for pace, SoS, etc. – NOT age or position or height/weight comps).  There are over 25,000 lines of data in those scores, from most similar to least. Any score under 10 is pretty similar, the farther you get over 10 take with a grain of salt. So as an example, there are no good comps in this sweet 16 for Anthony Davis (Daniel Ochefu is the closest with a 13.4 – not all that similar). Daniel Ochefu is very similar to both championship seasons of Al Horford though.

Later.

Dan

Current Tourney and Past Champions Mashup

I will tell you right now, it’s late. It’s my son’s birthday when he wakes up in a few hours (I’ll being doing all kinds of stuff with him & the family all the while trying to catch up on on the tourney action from the DVR as the day unfolds and I avoid sports media), but I really wanted to present my 2016 NCAA Tourney player rankings in a different way – and my mind wouldn’t settle until I got this done. Here’s the fruits of my labor this night:

2016TourneyTeams&PastChampsMashUp

Yes, it is what it sounds like – I included the final ratings of all rotation players from the past 20 NCAA champions into the ratings going into this tourney of the rotation players of all 68 tourney teams. I figured it would help people maybe get some perspective on some players they might not have yet gotten a chance to watch by seeing their rating breakdowns next to past players they remember fondly (or, not so fondly).

Yes, Denzel Valentine has been THAT good this season.

Now understand, I am fully capable of running similarity scores and such between these players – and was going to do so for this article – but I just didn’t have nearly enough time to get to it. I will probably run similarity scores of past champion players to current tourney players on twitter, for anyone who asks. So, feel free to tweet me and ask about any player you’d like. Or, comment below.

Man, I’m seriously tired. So, note the above spreadsheet has two pages. The first is the normal way I present all the ratings, stats, rating breakdowns, etc. – all fully sortable. The second deals with skill set breakdowns specifically, seeing who impacts games the most when they are on the court – and how they do it. It also shows where player statistical deficiencies lie. Play around with it, I wanted it to be easy for people to get a feel for any player. Enjoy.

Dan

Updated Ratings & Rankings of All D1 Players

The ratings are through all of Sundays’s (3-13-16) games. There is a TON of information in the spreadsheet – the ability to sort all players by any rating subset:

3-14-16NationalPlayerRankingsPost

Remember, HnR is an overall seasonal rating – missing games hurts the rating. HnI is the rating for the player when he is actually on the court – missing games does not hurt the rating. HnI is the better predictor, and is what I use when predicting games. 100 is an average D1 player for either rating.

Don’t have anything to say right now – I will be doing a write up and another spreadsheet focused solely on the NCAA Tourney, which I will post tonight. I’m going to spend the next 6 or more hours pulling together some information and ways to look at the current tourney players in a way I have never seen or done before. I’m pretty excited to see how it plays out. Stay tuned.

Dan