Category Archives: Ratings

Updated NBA Player Wins Above Replacement

This will be crazy quick, since I have a ton of Sweet 16 stuff to pull together in the next 4 hours. I decided to run similarity scores to create NBA comps for every Sweet 16 player – which obviously meant I needed to update the NBA WAR. So, here it is, with ALL the rating breakdowns:

Thru3-22-17NBAPlayerRatings

So, Russell Westbrook is on pace to finish with almost a 3 WAR lead over James Harden. The 10 players and 25 player seasons over the last 38 seasons that ended up with an 82 game “pace” better than what Russell is projecting (adjusts for strike seasons): Michael Jordan (6 seasons), LeBron James (6 seasons), David Robinson (4 seasons), Hakeem Olajuwan (2 seasons), Tim Duncan (2 seasons), Shaquille O’Neal (1 season), Kevin Garnett (1 season), Kevin Durant (1 season), Chris Paul (1 season), & Steph Curry (1 season).

Westbrook’s per minute WAR looks even better, 6 players and 12 player seasons over the last 38 seasons finishing better: LeBron (4 seasons), MJ (3 seasons), David Robinson (2 seasons), Shaq (1), Steph (1), & CP3 (1).

Dan

NCAA Tourney Player & Team Ratings & Rankings

First off, current national player rankings (3052 players rated & ranked) can be found here.

Now, the spreadsheet with EVERY tourney player (> 100 season minutes) rated & ranked in various ways. FAQ sheet included:

2017NCAAtourneyPlayerRatingsPOST

Now, some stuff….

Team Ratings?

I get asked for this a ton, so here you go. First off, the rating breakdowns of the entire NCAA and the various tourneys:

Entire 2017 NCAA, average team rating: 97.5

2017 NCAA Tourney, average team: 117.5

2017 NIT, average team: 109.5

2017 CBI, average team: 94.6

2017 CIT, average team: 92.3

Average team NOT in any tourney: 90.0

NCAA Tourney team ratings:

Left is the general team rating & rank, right is the team rating & rank (the order I have the teams) after compiling player ratings based on optimized plausible minutes (see M? in the spreadsheet). This rating accounts for players who may be out, and tightens the minute allocations – more tv timeouts, teams often can keep (and WANT to keep) their better players on the court longer.

TmRat Rank Team Region Seed Optimal R Rank Diff
139.1 1 Gonzaga West 1 144.3 1 5.2
136.5 3 North Carolina South 1 144.2 2 7.7
137.7 2 Villanova East 1 141.0 3 3.3
135.4 5 Kentucky South 2 139.7 4 4.3
135.6 4 West Virginia West 4 139.5 5 3.9
133.4 8 Duke East 2 139.4 6 6.0
133.9 6 Louisville Midwest 2 139.2 7 5.2
133.9 7 Kansas Midwest 1 138.6 8 4.7
128.2 17 Wisconsin East 8 136.8 9 8.5
131.0 11 Wichita St. South 10 136.6 10 5.6
120.0 30 South Carolina East 7 136.5 11 16.5
132.0 10 Florida East 4 136.1 12 4.1
127.7 19 SMU East 6 135.8 13 8.1
132.5 9 Virginia East 5 135.5 14 3.0
127.8 18 Arizona West 2 134.4 15 6.6
130.5 12 Purdue Midwest 4 134.2 16 3.7
125.5 24 Oklahoma St. Midwest 10 133.3 17 7.8
130.3 13 Oregon Midwest 3 133.3 18 2.9
129.0 16 Iowa St. Midwest 5 133.1 19 4.1
129.6 14 Baylor East 3 132.5 20 2.9
129.4 15 UCLA South 3 132.5 21 3.1
127.2 21 Cincinnati South 6 132.4 22 5.2
127.6 20 Florida St. West 3 131.9 23 4.3
126.1 22 Notre Dame West 5 130.1 24 4.0
125.9 23 Michigan Midwest 7 129.9 25 4.0
125.0 26 Butler South 4 129.4 26 4.4
125.5 25 Saint Mary’s West 7 128.7 27 3.2
117.9 38 Dayton South 7 127.6 28 9.7
118.7 34 Wake Forest South 11 126.2 29 7.5
124.7 27 Creighton Midwest 6 126.1 30 1.4
119.3 32 Minnesota South 5 125.5 31 6.2
120.2 29 Marquette East 10 124.7 32 4.5
118.4 35 Michigan St. Midwest 9 123.9 33 5.6
116.4 43 Seton Hall South 9 123.7 34 7.3
121.0 28 Miami-Florida Midwest 8 123.1 35 2.1
116.9 42 Rhode Island Midwest 11 122.4 36 5.6
119.2 33 Kansas St. South 11 121.9 37 2.7
117.4 40 Vanderbilt West 9 121.7 38 4.3
118.3 36 Arkansas South 8 121.6 39 3.3
117.9 37 Northwestern West 8 121.1 40 3.2
116.2 44 VCU West 10 120.9 41 4.8
117.4 39 Maryland West 6 120.8 42 3.3
114.4 46 Nevada Midwest 12 118.7 43 4.3
119.5 31 Xavier West 11 118.6 44 -0.9
114.6 45 USC East 11 118.0 45 3.4
114.0 47 Providence East 11 117.7 46 3.7
113.5 48 Middle Tennessee South 12 116.7 47 3.2
109.6 51 Vermont Midwest 13 116.4 48 6.8
111.6 49 UNC Wilmington East 12 116.0 49 4.4
117.0 41 Virginia Tech East 9 116.0 50 -1.0
110.7 50 Princeton West 12 115.4 51 4.7
105.5 54 New Mexico St. East 14 112.4 52 6.9
105.9 53 Bucknell West 13 112.3 53 6.3
108.8 52 East Tennessee St. East 13 112.2 54 3.4
101.7 55 Florida Gulf Coast West 14 105.4 55 3.8
99.3 58 Kent St. South 14 104.6 56 5.3
100.6 57 Iona Midwest 14 104.4 57 3.7
101.5 56 Winthrop South 13 104.0 58 2.6
97.8 59 Northern Kentucky South 15 103.7 59 5.9
96.0 61 North Dakota West 15 101.3 60 5.3
95.5 62 North Carolina Central Midwest 16 100.6 61 5.1
97.3 60 Troy East 15 100.4 62 3.2
94.5 64 Jacksonville St. Midwest 15 99.2 63 4.7
92.9 65 UC-Davis Midwest 16 99.1 64 6.2
91.9 67 New Orleans East 16 98.1 65 6.2
95.4 63 South Dakota St. West 16 97.6 66 2.3
90.9 68 Mount St. Mary’s East 16 95.9 67 5.0
92.2 66 Texas Southern South 16 95.0 68 2.8

The teams with the best difference usually spread out the minutes during the season, but with projected increased minutes to their most productive players their team rating just plain looks better. South Carolina & their crazy 16.5 differential- they have the best player in the nation. He missed 6 games this year, which hurt their team rating – but Sindarius Thornwell is now very much playing, & will probably dominate with 4 or more minutes per game than he averaged during the season. Throw in increased minutes to Chris Silva & PJ Dozier, they should scare some teams.

The teams at the bottom of differential, they have important players who are now out. Virginia Tech no longer has their 2nd best player Chris Clarke. Xavier does not have their best player Edmond Sumner. Creighton is without their star point guard Maurice Watson Jr. Oregon is missing Chris Boucher, but tightening their minutes and having a healthy Dillon Brooks (missing him earlier in the year hurt their rating) still gives them a slight team improvement over their season as a whole rating.

The rating above, here’s how you use them. I’ll use Arizona, MY team, as an example. They play North Dakota. The ratings on the right & the Vegas over/under line, we compute Arizona’s score thus:

Arizona = 134.4/(134.4+101.3)*147= 83.8

North Dakota = 101.3/(134.4+101.3)*147= 63.2

Arizona is favored right now by 17.5. I have Arizona by 20.6. Arizona is a solid bet.

That’s it for now, I have more I’d like to do, but the tourney is starting right now. I probably will add more fun stuff later (today?).

Dan

Updated Ratings & Rankings of 3052 D1 Players

The results are through Sunday, March 12th – just before the post season tourneys (NCAA, NIT, CBI, & CIT). I did include a column at the end of the spreadsheet noting what tourney the player’s team is participating. As usual, ALL the rating breakdowns are included. Please note the FAQ sheet if there is any confusion or questions about the ratings. Enjoy:

Thru3-12-17cbbRatingsPOST

For those who just hate spreadsheets &/or downloading anything, here are the top guys by Hoops Nerd Rating (HnR) – the season as a whole rating in which 100 is pretty much D1 average:

Rnk Player Cla Team Conf G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS% HnR
1 Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina SEC 26 33.6 21.0 7.2 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.576 190
2 Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin Big Ten 34 27.9 13.9 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.1 2.2 2.6 0.568 190
3 Josh Hart SR Villanova Big East 34 33.2 18.9 6.5 3.1 1.5 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.614 180
4 Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue Big Ten 32 32.3 18.5 12.6 2.8 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.9 0.619 175
5 John Collins SO Wake Forest ACC 32 26.3 18.9 9.8 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.8 3.0 0.646 174
6 Jock Landale JR Saint Mary’s WCC 32 27.7 16.8 9.3 1.6 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.6 0.635 172
7 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga WCC 32 32.0 16.9 5.7 4.8 1.8 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.626 170
8 Bonzie Colson JR Notre Dame ACC 34 32.0 17.5 10.2 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.2 0.589 170
9 Jawun Evans SO Oklahoma St. Big 12 31 29.0 19.0 3.3 6.2 1.8 0.1 2.8 2.3 0.536 169
10 Johnathan Motley JR Baylor Big 12 31 30.6 17.3 9.9 2.4 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.1 0.562 169
11 Frank Mason SR Kansas Big 12 32 36.2 20.8 4.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 2.5 2.1 0.615 168
12 Monte Morris SR Iowa St. Big 12 33 35.4 16.3 4.8 6.1 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.551 167
13 Derrick White SR Colorado Pac-12 33 32.6 17.7 4.0 4.3 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.1 0.620 166
14 Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina ACC 34 24.0 12.6 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.4 0.554 164
15 Eric Mika SO BYU WCC 33 28.5 20.1 9.2 1.6 0.5 1.9 2.5 2.7 0.583 163
16 Luke Kennard SO Duke ACC 35 35.9 20.1 5.3 2.5 0.8 0.4 1.6 2.2 0.633 162
17 Yante Maten JR Georgia SEC 29 29.0 18.2 6.8 1.5 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.8 0.588 161
18 Nick Ward FR Michigan St. Big Ten 33 19.6 13.7 6.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.7 2.8 0.589 160
19 Alec Peters SR Valparaiso Horizon 29 35.1 23.0 10.1 2.2 0.8 0.4 2.4 2.2 0.589 159
20 Dedric Lawson SO Memphis AAC 32 34.5 19.2 9.9 3.3 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.5 0.537 159
21 Zach Collins FR Gonzaga WCC 33 17.1 10.2 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.5 1.4 2.6 0.697 158
22 J.J. Frazier SR Georgia SEC 33 34.6 18.5 3.8 4.2 1.8 0.1 2.4 2.4 0.538 158
23 Jevon Carter JR West Virginia Big 12 34 31.7 13.1 4.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 1.9 2.5 0.569 157
24 Angel Delgado JR Seton Hall Big East 32 33.1 15.3 13.1 2.2 0.6 0.3 2.9 2.4 0.549 157
25 Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona Pac-12 34 30.5 15.6 7.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.628 157
26 Jeffrey Carroll JR Oklahoma St. Big 12 32 28.9 17.4 6.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.642 156
27 Semi Ojeleye JR SMU AAC 34 34.0 18.8 6.7 1.6 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.621 156
28 Lonzo Ball FR UCLA Pac-12 33 34.9 14.6 6.1 7.7 1.9 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.663 156
29 Donovan Mitchell SO Louisville ACC 32 31.9 15.7 4.6 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 0.539 156
30 Derrick Walton SR Michigan Big Ten 35 34.6 15.2 4.7 4.7 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.614 155
31 Tacko Fall SO Central Florida AAC 32 26.1 11.1 9.6 0.6 0.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.670 155
32 De’Aaron Fox FR Kentucky SEC 32 29.2 16.1 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.540 155
33 T.J. Cline SR Richmond A-10 32 32.4 18.0 7.8 5.7 1.0 0.2 2.9 2.5 0.580 154
34 Mike Daum SO South Dakota St. Summit 34 32.6 25.3 8.2 1.4 0.6 0.4 2.8 2.5 0.652 154
35 Jordan Bell JR Oregon Pac-12 34 28.4 10.7 8.1 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 0.644 154
36 Markelle Fultz FR Washington Pac-12 25 35.7 23.2 5.7 5.9 1.6 1.2 3.2 2.5 0.554 153
37 Justin Patton FR Creighton Big East 34 25.4 13.1 6.2 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.7 0.683 153
38 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon Pac-12 30 24.0 16.3 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.602 153
39 Josh Jackson FR Kansas Big 12 31 30.7 16.4 7.2 3.1 1.6 1.1 2.8 3.0 0.550 153

34 of the top 35 HnR ranked players are playing in the postseason, 27 in the NCAA tourney and 7 in the NIT. Again, I noted all the tourneys on the far write of the spreadsheet for fun.

Now the national rankings based on Hoops Nerd Impact – which does not devalue based on missed games. Pretty much the player’s impact when actually on the court. Again, 100 D1 average:

Rnk Player Cla Team Conf G Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS% HnI
1 Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina SEC 26 33.6 21.0 7.2 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.576 205
2 Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin Big Ten 34 27.9 13.9 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.1 2.2 2.6 0.568 190
3 Josh Hart SR Villanova Big East 34 33.2 18.9 6.5 3.1 1.5 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.614 178
4 Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue Big Ten 32 32.3 18.5 12.6 2.8 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.9 0.619 174
5 John Collins SO Wake Forest ACC 32 26.3 18.9 9.8 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.8 3.0 0.646 173
6 Jock Landale JR Saint Mary’s WCC 32 27.7 16.8 9.3 1.6 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.6 0.635 172
7 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga WCC 32 32.0 16.9 5.7 4.8 1.8 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.626 171
8 Jawun Evans SO Oklahoma St. Big 12 31 29.0 19.0 3.3 6.2 1.8 0.1 2.8 2.3 0.536 170
9 Bonzie Colson JR Notre Dame ACC 34 32.0 17.5 10.2 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.2 0.589 170
10 Johnathan Motley JR Baylor Big 12 31 30.6 17.3 9.9 2.4 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.1 0.562 170
11 Frank Mason SR Kansas Big 12 32 36.2 20.8 4.1 5.1 1.3 0.1 2.5 2.1 0.615 168
12 Yante Maten JR Georgia SEC 29 29.0 18.2 6.8 1.5 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.8 0.588 167
13 Monte Morris SR Iowa St. Big 12 33 35.4 16.3 4.8 6.1 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.551 166
14 Markelle Fultz FR Washington Pac-12 25 35.7 23.2 5.7 5.9 1.6 1.2 3.2 2.5 0.554 165
15 Derrick White SR Colorado Pac-12 33 32.6 17.7 4.0 4.3 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.1 0.620 164
16 Shavar Newkirk JR Saint Joseph’s A-10 12 33.7 20.3 4.8 3.5 1.3 0.2 2.2 1.7 0.591 163
17 Alec Peters SR Valparaiso Horizon 29 35.1 23.0 10.1 2.2 0.8 0.4 2.4 2.2 0.589 163
18 Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina ACC 34 24.0 12.6 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 2.4 0.554 163
19 Eric Mika SO BYU WCC 33 28.5 20.1 9.2 1.6 0.5 1.9 2.5 2.7 0.583 162
20 Luke Kennard SO Duke ACC 35 35.9 20.1 5.3 2.5 0.8 0.4 1.6 2.2 0.633 160
21 Nick Ward FR Michigan St. Big Ten 33 19.6 13.7 6.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.7 2.8 0.589 158
22 Dedric Lawson SO Memphis AAC 32 34.5 19.2 9.9 3.3 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.5 0.537 158
23 Zach Collins FR Gonzaga WCC 33 17.1 10.2 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.5 1.4 2.6 0.697 158
24 Miles Bridges FR Michigan St. Big Ten 26 31.8 16.7 8.3 2.0 0.7 1.6 2.5 1.9 0.572 157
25 Jevon Carter JR West Virginia Big 12 34 31.7 13.1 4.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 1.9 2.5 0.569 157
26 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon Pac-12 30 24.0 16.3 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.602 156
27 De’Aaron Fox FR Kentucky SEC 32 29.2 16.1 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.540 156
28 J.J. Frazier SR Georgia SEC 33 34.6 18.5 3.8 4.2 1.8 0.1 2.4 2.4 0.538 156
29 Angel Delgado JR Seton Hall Big East 32 33.1 15.3 13.1 2.2 0.6 0.3 2.9 2.4 0.549 156
30 Allonzo Trier SO Arizona Pac-12 15 31.7 17.3 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.623 156
31 Lonzo Ball FR UCLA Pac-12 33 34.9 14.6 6.1 7.7 1.9 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.663 155
32 Semi Ojeleye JR SMU AAC 34 34.0 18.8 6.7 1.6 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.621 155
33 Hassan Martin SR Rhode Island A-10 28 26.6 14.1 7.0 0.7 0.6 2.5 1.5 2.8 0.609 155
34 Jeffrey Carroll JR Oklahoma St. Big 12 32 28.9 17.4 6.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.642 155
35 Donovan Mitchell SO Louisville ACC 32 31.9 15.7 4.6 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 0.539 155
36 Derrick Walton SR Michigan Big Ten 35 34.6 15.2 4.7 4.7 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.614 155
37 Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona Pac-12 34 30.5 15.6 7.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.628 155
38 T.J. Cline SR Richmond A-10 32 32.4 18.0 7.8 5.7 1.0 0.2 2.9 2.5 0.580 154
39 Josh Jackson FR Kansas Big 12 31 30.7 16.4 7.2 3.1 1.6 1.1 2.8 3.0 0.550 154

No surprise, Markelle Fultz of Washington, possibly the #1 pick in the next NBA draft, is the highest HnI ranked player not to be playing in any postseason tourney.

Now stay tuned, tonight I should be posting a TON of fun player stuff & team ratings for the NCAA tourney. Seriously, you will not find a better place to learn about players & who to watch & when to watch them these following 4 days of college awesomeness. Let’s just say you will become much better informed than a couple certain ex NBA player “experts” you’ll see all over the pre & post game shows – I can promise that.

Dan