First off, current national player rankings (3052 players rated & ranked) can be found here.
Now, the spreadsheet with EVERY tourney player (> 100 season minutes) rated & ranked in various ways. FAQ sheet included:
Now, some stuff….
I get asked for this a ton, so here you go. First off, the rating breakdowns of the entire NCAA and the various tourneys:
Entire 2017 NCAA, average team rating: 97.5
2017 NCAA Tourney, average team: 117.5
2017 NIT, average team: 109.5
2017 CBI, average team: 94.6
2017 CIT, average team: 92.3
Average team NOT in any tourney: 90.0
NCAA Tourney team ratings:
Left is the general team rating & rank, right is the team rating & rank (the order I have the teams) after compiling player ratings based on optimized plausible minutes (see M? in the spreadsheet). This rating accounts for players who may be out, and tightens the minute allocations – more tv timeouts, teams often can keep (and WANT to keep) their better players on the court longer.
|105.5||54||New Mexico St.||East||14||112.4||52||6.9|
|108.8||52||East Tennessee St.||East||13||112.2||54||3.4|
|101.7||55||Florida Gulf Coast||West||14||105.4||55||3.8|
|95.5||62||North Carolina Central||Midwest||16||100.6||61||5.1|
|95.4||63||South Dakota St.||West||16||97.6||66||2.3|
|90.9||68||Mount St. Mary’s||East||16||95.9||67||5.0|
The teams with the best difference usually spread out the minutes during the season, but with projected increased minutes to their most productive players their team rating just plain looks better. South Carolina & their crazy 16.5 differential- they have the best player in the nation. He missed 6 games this year, which hurt their team rating – but Sindarius Thornwell is now very much playing, & will probably dominate with 4 or more minutes per game than he averaged during the season. Throw in increased minutes to Chris Silva & PJ Dozier, they should scare some teams.
The teams at the bottom of differential, they have important players who are now out. Virginia Tech no longer has their 2nd best player Chris Clarke. Xavier does not have their best player Edmond Sumner. Creighton is without their star point guard Maurice Watson Jr. Oregon is missing Chris Boucher, but tightening their minutes and having a healthy Dillon Brooks (missing him earlier in the year hurt their rating) still gives them a slight team improvement over their season as a whole rating.
The rating above, here’s how you use them. I’ll use Arizona, MY team, as an example. They play North Dakota. The ratings on the right & the Vegas over/under line, we compute Arizona’s score thus:
Arizona = 134.4/(134.4+101.3)*147= 83.8
North Dakota = 101.3/(134.4+101.3)*147= 63.2
Arizona is favored right now by 17.5. I have Arizona by 20.6. Arizona is a solid bet.
That’s it for now, I have more I’d like to do, but the tourney is starting right now. I probably will add more fun stuff later (today?).