OK, ALL the gory player rating details are in the following spreadsheet, with all the player rating & ranking breakdowns. Be aware, I included a sheet that contains EVERY player comp % for every player > 100 minutes in the Sweet 16 with every NBA player currently > 500 minutes on the season. [3/24 EDIT: those comps have already been tweaked & improved, so the info in the spreadsheet already isn’t the best version. Happens sometimes when I rush. Oh well. Future comps will be the improved version] That’s 52,772 lines of player comps. I included all the info for those who may find it fun to find the very worst comps – or for those who want to see ANY possible combination of Sweet 16 & NBA player.
2017Sweet16PlayerRatingsPOST
On to the fun.
The All Sweet 16 Teams. Yes, MANY different “teams”.
OK, here come a multitude of unconventional ways to look at the best players left in this tourney – by exploring various All Sweet 16 lineups. I didn’t just pick the top 5 guys for every lineup (all you have to do is sort the spreadsheet for that) – I put together the top 5 guys for every category who ALSO would be a viable lineup across the entire rating spectrum. I made sure EVERY lineup was BETTER than Sweet 16 average in ALL these rating subsets: 2pt production, 3pt production, FT production, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, & ball handling (assists & turnovers).
Those rules being set, here’s the All Sweet 16 teams:
The Overall All Sweet 16 Teams:
HnI | 1st Team | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
207 | Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
190 | Ethan Happ | SO | Wisconsin | 27.7 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.569 |
174 | Caleb Swanigan | SO | Purdue | 32.5 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.613 |
168 | Frank Mason | SR | Kansas | 36.1 | 20.8 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.613 |
169 | Nigel Williams-Goss | JR | Gonzaga | 32.3 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.608 |
HnI | 2nd | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
169 | Johnathan Motley | JR | Baylor | 30.4 | 17.3 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.566 |
164 | Kennedy Meeks | SR | North Carolina | 23.9 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.558 |
157 | Derrick Walton | SR | Michigan | 34.8 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.612 |
157 | Lonzo Ball | FR | UCLA | 35.0 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.675 |
156 | Jevon Carter | JR | West Virginia | 31.8 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.570 |
HnI | 3rd | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
159 | Zach Collins | FR | Gonzaga | 17.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.698 |
155 | Josh Jackson | FR | Kansas | 30.6 | 16.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 0.558 |
155 | Dillon Brooks | JR | Oregon | 24.4 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.597 |
154 | De’Aaron Fox | FR | Kentucky | 29.4 | 16.1 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.537 |
145 | Joel Berry | JR | North Carolina | 29.9 | 14.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.580 |
HnI | 4th | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
156 | Lauri Markkanen | FR | Arizona | 30.6 | 15.8 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.633 |
154 | Allonzo Trier | SO | Arizona | 31.6 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.614 |
153 | Jordan Bell | JR | Oregon | 28.4 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.646 |
150 | Malik Monk | FR | Kentucky | 32.1 | 20.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.582 |
143 | Chris Chiozza | JR | Florida | 21.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.541 |
HnI | 5th | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
151 | Tony Bradley | FR | North Carolina | 15.0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.593 |
151 | Przemek Karnowski | SR | Gonzaga | 22.8 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.598 |
149 | Justin Jackson | JR | North Carolina | 31.5 | 18.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.558 |
141 | Tarik Phillip | SR | West Virginia | 24.3 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.539 |
140 | KeVaughn Allen | SO | Florida | 28.4 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.583 |
HnI | Honorable Mention | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
149 | Isaiah Hicks | SR | North Carolina | 23.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.640 |
148 | Edrice Adebayo | FR | Kentucky | 29.8 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.620 |
147 | TJ Leaf | FR | UCLA | 29.8 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.656 |
145 | Devin Robinson | JR | Florida | 26.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.575 |
142 | Kevarrius Hayes | SO | Florida | 17.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.624 |
142 | Canyon Barry | SR | Florida | 21.5 | 11.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.565 |
142 | Isaac Haas | JR | Purdue | 19.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.619 |
142 | Vince Edwards | JR | Purdue | 28.6 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.591 |
142 | Nigel Hayes | SR | Wisconsin | 32.3 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.504 |
Breakdown by team:
North Carolina: 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 5ths, 1 honorable mention
Florida: 1 4th, 1 5th, 3 honorable mentions
Gonzaga: 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 5th
Purdue: 1 1st, 2 honorable mentions
Kentucky: 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 honorable mention
Kansas: 1 1st, 1 3rd
Wisconsin: 1 1st, 1 honorable mention
West Virginia: 1 2nd, 1 5th
Oregon: 1 3rd, 1 4th
UCLA: 1 2nd, 1 honorable mention
Arizona: 2 4ths
South Carolina: 1 1st
Baylor: 1 2nd
Michigan: 1 2nd
Butler & Xavier did not have a player make the list.
All Scoring Rating lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Zach Collins | FR | Gonzaga | 17.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.698 |
Dillon Brooks | JR | Oregon | 24.4 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.597 |
Frank Mason | SR | Kansas | 36.1 | 20.8 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.613 |
Nigel Williams-Goss | JR | Gonzaga | 32.3 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.608 |
All 2pt Production Lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Ethan Happ | SO | Wisconsin | 27.7 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.569 |
Isaac Haas | JR | Purdue | 19.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.619 |
Dillon Brooks | JR | Oregon | 24.4 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.597 |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Lonzo Ball | FR | UCLA | 35.0 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.675 |
All Free Throw Production Lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Allonzo Trier | SO | Arizona | 31.6 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.614 |
Canyon Barry | SR | Florida | 21.5 | 11.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.565 |
Caleb Swanigan | SO | Purdue | 32.5 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.613 |
Nigel Williams-Goss | JR | Gonzaga | 32.3 | 16.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.608 |
All 3pt Production Lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Derrick Walton | SR | Michigan | 34.8 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.612 |
Lauri Markkanen | FR | Arizona | 30.6 | 15.8 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.633 |
Dillon Brooks | JR | Oregon | 24.4 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.597 |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Derek Willis | SR | Kentucky | 21.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.620 |
All Rebounding Lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Kennedy Meeks | SR | North Carolina | 23.9 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.558 |
Caleb Swanigan | SO | Purdue | 32.5 | 18.5 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.613 |
Lauri Markkanen | FR | Arizona | 30.6 | 15.8 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.633 |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Chris Chiozza | JR | Florida | 21.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.541 |
All Handles/Passing lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Tyler Lewis | SR | Butler | 21.8 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.636 |
Lonzo Ball | FR | UCLA | 35.0 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.675 |
Parker Jackson-Cartwright | JR | Arizona | 24.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.575 |
Ethan Happ | SO | Wisconsin | 27.7 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.569 |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
All Defensive Stops lineup:
Player | Cla | Team | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g | TS% |
Sagaba Konate | FR | West Virginia | 10.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.573 |
Ethan Happ | SO | Wisconsin | 27.7 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.569 |
Sindarius Thornwell | SR | South Carolina | 33.7 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.580 |
Jevon Carter | JR | West Virginia | 31.8 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.570 |
Devonte’ Graham | JR | Kansas | 35.2 | 13.3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.588 |
Here’s something that needs to be noted about the greatness of Sindarius Thornwell – he is such an all-around great college player, than in order to make a lineup that excelled at any one skillset WHILE still being Sweet 16 above average across the board, he needed to be included. Not in one or two lineups – but in each & every one of them. I had no idea it would play out that way, but now his incredible overall rating makes even more sense to me.
Sweet 16 NBA Player Comps
[3/24 EDIT: I’m leaving this info, but I have already improved the comp modeling, which was giving too much disproportionate credit to scoring ratings & not enough toward the non scoring. If I had completed the comps a day earlier, I would have caught the error in weight. My bad.] I’d love to go into much greater details about the player comps in the spreadsheet, but I don’t nearly have the time and honestly have no clue where to start. Understand that these comps are based off 14 rating breakdowns, ratings adjusted for pace, SoS, team quality, etc. These Sweet 16 players ratings are relative to other Sweet 16 guys – thus I’m creating a “____ is to this Sweet 16 as ____ is to the NBA right now”.
These are statistical ratings (ABSOLUTELY NOT FUTURE NBA PROJECTIONS) – so it is very feasible for a 6’4″ NCAA guard who doesn’t hit many threes or get many assists, & rebounds well may find his best stat comp being a weaker rebounding NBA power forward. Take note of the Comp%, anything heading down into the mid 80s or lower starts matching players who are only really partly similar. I’m doing this to help people who are very familiar with NBA players understand what type of statistical impact to expect from some of these college guys they may not be as familiar with.
Due to lack of time & space, I will note three big name guys here for fun, & allow you to sort through the spreadsheet for any other comps you may want to find.
First, Lonzo Ball, like many “unique” college players (see Ethan Happ), has NO good comps (all below 85%). I believe this is due to his low FT rate (low frequency) with just a slightly above average overall scoring production, but with strong efficiencies & high assist rate. His comps look quite meh (no stars), he just honestly needed to score quite a bit more (even if there was some efficiency drop) to see star NBA point guard comps [3/24 Edit: his new comps are Rubio at 84.1%, Chris Paul at 82.9%, JJ Barea at 82.3%, Jeff Teague at 81.5%, then Sergio listed below at 81.2%]:
Sergio Rodriguez | PG | 30 | PHI | 85.0% |
Yogi Ferrell | PG | 23 | DAL | 82.4% |
Ricky Rubio | PG | 26 | MIN | 82.3% |
Brandon Jennings | PG | 27 | WAS | 82.2% |
His worst comp in the NBA is Anthony Davis, at 37%.
The guy I’ve been telling everyone for a while is the best player in all of college basketball (and it’s almost not close), Sindarius Thornwell, has the following comps [3/24 Update: Kawhi still #1 comp at 82.9%, Cousins 78.6%, Durant 77.9%, Butler 75.8%, Hayward 75.0%]:
Kawhi Leonard | SF | 25 | SAS | 85.6% |
DeMarcus Cousins | C | 26 | NOP | 80.7% |
Gordon Hayward | SF | 26 | UTA | 79.8% |
Jimmy Butler | SF | 27 | CHI | 79.6% |
Kevin Durant | SF | 28 | GSW | 77.7% |
His comp% are also not strong, although Kawhi does stand out from all others – and is the best comp (highest comp%) from any player in this tourney to any NBA superstar (of the Westbrooks, Hardens, LeBrons, Kawhis, Durants, Stephs, Isaiahs, etc). Sindarius is above to WAY above average compared to the average Sweet 16 player in EVERY rating breakdown. That makes it hard to find a good comp, & the best ones you do find will be very good. His worst NBA comp is JR Smith at 36.5%
I’ll include De’Aaron Fox, since his comps made me laugh [3/24 Update: Wall 86.3, Griffin 85.2%, Wade 84.4%, Dragic 83.8%, Bledsoe 83.4%, Teague 83.2%]:
Blake Griffin | PF | 27 | LAC | 85.9% |
Dwyane Wade | SG | 35 | CHI | 84.8% |
John Wall | PG | 26 | WAS | 84.1% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF | 22 | MIL | 83.2% |
Derrick Rose | PG | 28 | NYK | 82.4% |
If we threw out the big disparity in rebounding, Fox & Blake Griffin would be great comps. Even including the rebounding, Blake is still the top comp. Blake’s best comp in this tourney is actually Nigel Hayes at 88.2%.
Probably the best comp to an NBA star is Frank Mason to Mike Conley, at 91%. Or, maybe Malik Monk to Bradley Beal at 90.5 [3/24 Edit: these last three comps I mention are still true, just with slightly different %’s].
That being said, just have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined…
I am going to leave this for now, I have a baseball game to coach. I will end with the general team ratings, and optimized lineup team ratings (as described in my tourney write up)
Rating | Rank | Team | Optimized | Rank | Diff |
136.4 | 2 | North Carolina | 144.1 | 1 | 7.7 |
138.8 | 1 | Gonzaga | 143.5 | 2 | 4.8 |
135.8 | 3 | West Virginia | 139.4 | 3 | 3.6 |
135.3 | 4 | Kentucky | 139.2 | 4 | 3.9 |
135.1 | 5 | Kansas | 138.6 | 5 | 3.6 |
133.6 | 6 | Florida | 137.4 | 6 | 3.8 |
121.9 | 15 | South Carolina | 136.4 | 7 | 14.6 |
128.9 | 11 | Wisconsin | 136.1 | 8 | 7.2 |
128.4 | 12 | Arizona | 135.9 | 9 | 7.6 |
130.8 | 7 | Purdue | 134.9 | 10 | 4.0 |
129.9 | 10 | Baylor | 134.2 | 11 | 4.3 |
130.1 | 9 | UCLA | 133.7 | 12 | 3.6 |
126.7 | 13 | Michigan | 132.1 | 13 | 5.4 |
130.2 | 8 | Oregon | 131.7 | 14 | 1.5 |
125.1 | 14 | Butler | 129.2 | 15 | 4.1 |
121.1 | 16 | Xavier | 120.4 | 16 | -0.7 |
The low difference between optimized and seasonal ratings for Oregon and Xavier are due to missing key players (Boucher & Sumner). South Carolina has Sindarius playing big minutes, they are much stronger right (as long as he stays out of any foul trouble) now than their seasonal rating (when Sindarius missed games) would suggest.
Using the optimized lineup data above, working with the Vegas O/U (so I don’t have to try to compute predicted game pace, that’s a bit of a pain in the ass), here’s the predicted outcomes of all the Sweet 16 games.
Predictions:
Michigan 74.1, Oregon 73.9
Gonzaga 76.1, West Virginia 73.9
Kansas 78.8, Purdue 76.7
Arizona 76.6, Xavier 67.9
North Carolina 80.9, Butler 72.6
South Carolina 68.3, Baylor 67.2
Kentucky 84.4, UCLA 81.1
Florida 66.1, Wisconsin 65.4
I hope you enjoyed my pu pu platter of information & data, please hit me up on twitter & spread the word if you did indeed find the info enlighting/interesting/unique/etc. Just trying to offer approaches to learning about players analytically – offering something that just can’t be found anywhere else.