OK, ALL the gory player rating details are in the following spreadsheet, with all the player rating & ranking breakdowns. Be aware, I included a sheet that contains EVERY player comp % for every player > 100 minutes in the Sweet 16 with every NBA player currently > 500 minutes on the season. [3/24 EDIT: those comps have already been tweaked & improved, so the info in the spreadsheet already isn’t the best version. Happens sometimes when I rush. Oh well. Future comps will be the improved version] That’s 52,772 lines of player comps. I included all the info for those who may find it fun to find the very worst comps – or for those who want to see ANY possible combination of Sweet 16 & NBA player.

2017Sweet16PlayerRatingsPOST

On to the fun.

The All Sweet 16 Teams. Yes, MANY different “teams”.

OK, here come a multitude of unconventional ways to look at the best players left in this tourney – by exploring various All Sweet 16 lineups. I didn’t just pick the top 5 guys for every lineup (all you have to do is sort the spreadsheet for that) – I put together the top 5 guys for every category who ALSO would be a viable lineup across the entire rating spectrum. I made sure EVERY lineup was BETTER than Sweet 16 average in ALL these rating subsets: 2pt production, 3pt production, FT production, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, & ball handling (assists & turnovers).

Those rules being set, here’s the All Sweet 16 teams:

The Overall All Sweet 16 Teams:

HnI	1st Team	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
207	Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
190	Ethan Happ	SO	Wisconsin	27.7	13.8	9.1	2.8	1.8	1.2	2.2	2.7	0.569
174	Caleb Swanigan	SO	Purdue	32.5	18.5	12.6	3.0	0.4	0.8	3.3	2.8	0.613
168	Frank Mason	SR	Kansas	36.1	20.8	4.1	5.2	1.3	0.1	2.4	2.1	0.613
169	Nigel Williams-Goss	JR	Gonzaga	32.3	16.7	5.8	4.7	1.7	0.0	2.1	1.5	0.608
HnI	2nd	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
169	Johnathan Motley	JR	Baylor	30.4	17.3	9.9	2.4	0.3	1.1	2.9	3.1	0.566
164	Kennedy Meeks	SR	North Carolina	23.9	12.7	9.1	1.1	0.9	1.1	1.3	2.3	0.558
157	Derrick Walton	SR	Michigan	34.8	15.4	4.8	4.9	1.1	0.0	1.7	1.7	0.612
157	Lonzo Ball	FR	UCLA	35.0	14.7	6.1	7.6	1.9	0.7	2.4	1.8	0.675
156	Jevon Carter	JR	West Virginia	31.8	13.3	4.9	3.8	2.5	0.2	1.8	2.5	0.570
HnI	3rd	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
159	Zach Collins	FR	Gonzaga	17.3	10.3	5.7	0.4	0.5	1.7	1.4	2.5	0.698
155	Josh Jackson	FR	Kansas	30.6	16.6	7.1	2.9	1.6	1.1	2.7	3.0	0.558
155	Dillon Brooks	JR	Oregon	24.4	16.4	3.1	2.7	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.7	0.597
154	De’Aaron Fox	FR	Kentucky	29.4	16.1	4.0	4.6	1.4	0.2	2.5	2.5	0.537
145	Joel Berry	JR	North Carolina	29.9	14.4	3.1	3.7	1.4	0.1	1.8	2.2	0.580
HnI	4th	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
156	Lauri Markkanen	FR	Arizona	30.6	15.8	7.2	0.9	0.4	0.5	1.1	2.0	0.633
154	Allonzo Trier	SO	Arizona	31.6	17.1	5.1	2.6	0.4	0.1	1.8	1.7	0.614
153	Jordan Bell	JR	Oregon	28.4	10.8	8.3	1.8	1.3	2.1	1.8	1.8	0.646
150	Malik Monk	FR	Kentucky	32.1	20.0	2.5	2.4	1.0	0.4	2.0	1.8	0.582
143	Chris Chiozza	JR	Florida	21.8	7.1	3.3	3.7	1.3	0.0	1.5	2.1	0.541
HnI	5th	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
151	Tony Bradley	FR	North Carolina	15.0	7.5	5.3	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.6	1.8	0.593
151	Przemek Karnowski	SR	Gonzaga	22.8	12.4	5.9	1.9	0.4	1.0	1.7	2.0	0.598
149	Justin Jackson	JR	North Carolina	31.5	18.1	4.7	2.8	0.8	0.2	1.7	1.4	0.558
141	Tarik Phillip	SR	West Virginia	24.3	9.6	2.9	3.1	1.8	0.3	1.6	1.9	0.539
140	KeVaughn Allen	SO	Florida	28.4	13.4	2.5	1.5	1.3	0.2	1.3	1.5	0.583
HnI	Honorable Mention	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
149	Isaiah Hicks	SR	North Carolina	23.4	12.4	5.7	1.4	0.4	0.7	1.7	3.0	0.640
148	Edrice Adebayo	FR	Kentucky	29.8	13.3	8.1	0.7	0.7	1.5	1.7	2.7	0.620
147	TJ Leaf	FR	UCLA	29.8	16.2	8.2	2.5	0.6	1.1	1.4	2.6	0.656
145	Devin Robinson	JR	Florida	26.4	11.4	6.3	0.6	0.9	0.8	1.1	2.2	0.575
142	Kevarrius Hayes	SO	Florida	17.4	6.1	4.3	0.2	0.6	1.6	0.7	2.4	0.624
142	Canyon Barry	SR	Florida	21.5	11.8	2.9	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.9	1.1	0.565
142	Isaac Haas	JR	Purdue	19.5	12.6	5.1	0.6	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.1	0.619
142	Vince Edwards	JR	Purdue	28.6	12.7	5.0	3.2	0.6	0.5	1.7	1.8	0.591
142	Nigel Hayes	SR	Wisconsin	32.3	13.8	6.6	2.7	0.8	0.4	1.7	1.8	0.504

Breakdown by team:

North Carolina: 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 5ths, 1 honorable mention

Florida: 1 4th, 1 5th, 3 honorable mentions

Gonzaga: 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 5th

Purdue: 1 1st, 2 honorable mentions

Kentucky: 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 honorable mention

Kansas: 1 1st, 1 3rd

Wisconsin: 1 1st, 1 honorable mention

West Virginia: 1 2nd, 1 5th

Oregon: 1 3rd, 1 4th

UCLA: 1 2nd, 1 honorable mention

Arizona: 2 4ths

South Carolina: 1 1st

Baylor: 1 2nd

Michigan: 1 2nd

Butler & Xavier did not have a player make the list.

All Scoring Rating lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Zach Collins	FR	Gonzaga	17.3	10.3	5.7	0.4	0.5	1.7	1.4	2.5	0.698
Dillon Brooks	JR	Oregon	24.4	16.4	3.1	2.7	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.7	0.597
Frank Mason	SR	Kansas	36.1	20.8	4.1	5.2	1.3	0.1	2.4	2.1	0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss	JR	Gonzaga	32.3	16.7	5.8	4.7	1.7	0.0	2.1	1.5	0.608

All 2pt Production Lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Ethan Happ	SO	Wisconsin	27.7	13.8	9.1	2.8	1.8	1.2	2.2	2.7	0.569
Isaac Haas	JR	Purdue	19.5	12.6	5.1	0.6	0.3	0.8	2.2	2.1	0.619
Dillon Brooks	JR	Oregon	24.4	16.4	3.1	2.7	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.7	0.597
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Lonzo Ball	FR	UCLA	35.0	14.7	6.1	7.6	1.9	0.7	2.4	1.8	0.675

All Free Throw Production Lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Allonzo Trier	SO	Arizona	31.6	17.1	5.1	2.6	0.4	0.1	1.8	1.7	0.614
Canyon Barry	SR	Florida	21.5	11.8	2.9	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.9	1.1	0.565
Caleb Swanigan	SO	Purdue	32.5	18.5	12.6	3.0	0.4	0.8	3.3	2.8	0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss	JR	Gonzaga	32.3	16.7	5.8	4.7	1.7	0.0	2.1	1.5	0.608

All 3pt Production Lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Derrick Walton	SR	Michigan	34.8	15.4	4.8	4.9	1.1	0.0	1.7	1.7	0.612
Lauri Markkanen	FR	Arizona	30.6	15.8	7.2	0.9	0.4	0.5	1.1	2.0	0.633
Dillon Brooks	JR	Oregon	24.4	16.4	3.1	2.7	1.1	0.5	2.0	2.7	0.597
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Derek Willis	SR	Kentucky	21.9	7.0	5.3	0.8	0.7	1.1	0.7	1.9	0.620

All Rebounding Lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Kennedy Meeks	SR	North Carolina	23.9	12.7	9.1	1.1	0.9	1.1	1.3	2.3	0.558
Caleb Swanigan	SO	Purdue	32.5	18.5	12.6	3.0	0.4	0.8	3.3	2.8	0.613
Lauri Markkanen	FR	Arizona	30.6	15.8	7.2	0.9	0.4	0.5	1.1	2.0	0.633
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Chris Chiozza	JR	Florida	21.8	7.1	3.3	3.7	1.3	0.0	1.5	2.1	0.541

All Handles/Passing lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Tyler Lewis	SR	Butler	21.8	6.5	1.4	4.0	0.6	0.0	1.0	1.7	0.636
Lonzo Ball	FR	UCLA	35.0	14.7	6.1	7.6	1.9	0.7	2.4	1.8	0.675
Parker Jackson-Cartwright	JR	Arizona	24.9	5.9	2.4	4.1	1.2	0.1	1.3	1.8	0.575
Ethan Happ	SO	Wisconsin	27.7	13.8	9.1	2.8	1.8	1.2	2.2	2.7	0.569
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580

All Defensive Stops lineup:

Player	Cla	Team	Mn/g	Pt/g	Rb/g	A/g	S/g	B/g	T/g	PF/g	TS%
Sagaba Konate	FR	West Virginia	10.9	4.1	2.9	0.3	0.4	1.4	0.9	2.1	0.573
Ethan Happ	SO	Wisconsin	27.7	13.8	9.1	2.8	1.8	1.2	2.2	2.7	0.569
Sindarius Thornwell	SR	South Carolina	33.7	21.4	7.3	2.9	2.2	0.9	2.4	2.3	0.580
Jevon Carter	JR	West Virginia	31.8	13.3	4.9	3.8	2.5	0.2	1.8	2.5	0.570
Devonte’ Graham	JR	Kansas	35.2	13.3	3.2	4.3	1.6	0.2	1.8	1.6	0.588

Here’s something that needs to be noted about the greatness of Sindarius Thornwell – he is such an all-around great college player, than in order to make a lineup that excelled at any one skillset WHILE still being Sweet 16 above average across the board, he needed to be included. Not in one or two lineups – but in each & every one of them. I had no idea it would play out that way, but now his incredible overall rating makes even more sense to me.

Sweet 16 NBA Player Comps

[3/24 EDIT: I’m leaving this info, but I have already improved the comp modeling, which was giving too much disproportionate credit to scoring ratings & not enough toward the non scoring. If I had completed the comps a day earlier, I would have caught the error in weight. My bad.] I’d love to go into much greater details about the player comps in the spreadsheet, but I don’t nearly have the time and honestly have no clue where to start. Understand that these comps are based off 14 rating breakdowns, ratings adjusted for pace, SoS, team quality, etc. These Sweet 16 players ratings are relative to other Sweet 16 guys – thus I’m creating a “____ is to this Sweet 16 as ____ is to the NBA right now”.

These are statistical ratings (ABSOLUTELY NOT FUTURE NBA PROJECTIONS) – so it is very feasible for a 6’4″ NCAA guard who doesn’t hit many threes or get many assists, & rebounds well may find his best stat comp being a weaker rebounding NBA power forward. Take note of the Comp%, anything heading down into the mid 80s or lower starts matching players who are only really partly similar. I’m doing this to help people who are very familiar with NBA players understand what type of statistical impact to expect from some of these college guys they may not be as familiar with.

Due to lack of time & space, I will note three big name guys here for fun, & allow you to sort through the spreadsheet for any other comps you may want to find.

First, Lonzo Ball, like many “unique” college players (see Ethan Happ), has NO good comps (all below 85%). I believe this is due to his low FT rate (low frequency) with just a slightly above average overall scoring production, but with strong efficiencies & high assist rate. His comps look quite meh (no stars), he just honestly needed to score quite a bit more (even if there was some efficiency drop) to see star NBA point guard comps [3/24 Edit: his new comps are Rubio at 84.1%, Chris Paul at 82.9%, JJ Barea at 82.3%, Jeff Teague at 81.5%, then Sergio listed below at 81.2%]:

Sergio Rodriguez	PG	30	PHI	85.0%
Yogi Ferrell	PG	23	DAL	82.4%
Ricky Rubio	PG	26	MIN	82.3%
Brandon Jennings	PG	27	WAS	82.2%

His worst comp in the NBA is Anthony Davis, at 37%.

The guy I’ve been telling everyone for a while is the best player in all of college basketball (and it’s almost not close), Sindarius Thornwell, has the following comps [3/24 Update: Kawhi still #1 comp at 82.9%, Cousins 78.6%, Durant 77.9%, Butler 75.8%, Hayward 75.0%]:

Kawhi Leonard	SF	25	SAS	85.6%
DeMarcus Cousins	C	26	NOP	80.7%
Gordon Hayward	SF	26	UTA	79.8%
Jimmy Butler	SF	27	CHI	79.6%
Kevin Durant	SF	28	GSW	77.7%

His comp% are also not strong, although Kawhi does stand out from all others – and is the best comp (highest comp%) from any player in this tourney to any NBA superstar (of the Westbrooks, Hardens, LeBrons, Kawhis, Durants, Stephs, Isaiahs, etc). Sindarius is above to WAY above average compared to the average Sweet 16 player in EVERY rating breakdown. That makes it hard to find a good comp, & the best ones you do find will be very good. His worst NBA comp is JR Smith at 36.5%

I’ll include De’Aaron Fox, since his comps made me laugh [3/24 Update: Wall 86.3, Griffin 85.2%, Wade 84.4%, Dragic 83.8%, Bledsoe 83.4%, Teague 83.2%]:

Blake Griffin	PF	27	LAC	85.9%
Dwyane Wade	SG	35	CHI	84.8%
John Wall	PG	26	WAS	84.1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	SF	22	MIL	83.2%
Derrick Rose	PG	28	NYK	82.4%

If we threw out the big disparity in rebounding, Fox & Blake Griffin would be great comps. Even including the rebounding, Blake is still the top comp.  Blake’s best comp in this tourney is actually Nigel Hayes at 88.2%.

Probably the best comp to an NBA star is Frank Mason to Mike Conley, at 91%. Or, maybe Malik Monk to Bradley Beal at 90.5 [3/24 Edit: these last three comps I mention are still true, just with slightly different %’s].

That being said, just have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined…

I am going to leave this for now, I have a baseball game to coach. I will end with the general team ratings, and optimized lineup team ratings (as described in my tourney write up)

Rating	Rank	Team	Optimized	Rank	Diff
136.4	2	North Carolina	144.1	1	7.7
138.8	1	Gonzaga	143.5	2	4.8
135.8	3	West Virginia	139.4	3	3.6
135.3	4	Kentucky	139.2	4	3.9
135.1	5	Kansas	138.6	5	3.6
133.6	6	Florida	137.4	6	3.8
121.9	15	South Carolina	136.4	7	14.6
128.9	11	Wisconsin	136.1	8	7.2
128.4	12	Arizona	135.9	9	7.6
130.8	7	Purdue	134.9	10	4.0
129.9	10	Baylor	134.2	11	4.3
130.1	9	UCLA	133.7	12	3.6
126.7	13	Michigan	132.1	13	5.4
130.2	8	Oregon	131.7	14	1.5
125.1	14	Butler	129.2	15	4.1
121.1	16	Xavier	120.4	16	-0.7

The low difference between optimized and seasonal ratings for Oregon and Xavier are due to missing key players (Boucher & Sumner). South Carolina has Sindarius playing big minutes, they are much stronger right (as long as he stays out of any foul trouble) now than their seasonal rating (when Sindarius missed games) would suggest.

Using the optimized lineup data above, working with the Vegas O/U (so I don’t have to try to compute predicted game pace, that’s a bit of a pain in the ass), here’s the predicted outcomes of all the Sweet 16 games.

Predictions:

Michigan 74.1, Oregon 73.9

Gonzaga 76.1, West Virginia 73.9

Kansas 78.8, Purdue 76.7

Arizona 76.6, Xavier 67.9

North Carolina 80.9, Butler 72.6

South Carolina 68.3, Baylor 67.2

Kentucky 84.4, UCLA 81.1

Florida 66.1, Wisconsin 65.4

I hope you enjoyed my pu pu platter of information & data, please hit me up on twitter & spread the word if you did indeed find the info enlighting/interesting/unique/etc. Just trying to offer approaches to learning about players analytically – offering something that just can’t be found anywhere else.

Dan