Category Archives: NBA

Current NBA Player WAR Rankings

Here you go with ALL the data:

Thru11-6-16NBAPlayerRatings

For those who refuse to ever download or click on anything – here’s 13 guys projecting a final WAR above 15. The above spreadsheet has ALL the gory details – broken down into the minutiae, if you crave more:

WARpace Rk WAR/48 Rk HnI Rk Player Pos Age Tm G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
38.11 1 54.47 1 185 1 Russell Westbrook PG 28 OKC 6 34.2 33.2 9.0 9.7 1.7 0.5 5.3 0.544
27.46 2 36.27 3 144 11 LeBron James SF 32 CLE 6 36.3 22.8 8.8 10.7 0.7 0.3 3.7 0.552
24.97 3 32.52 6 179 2 James Harden PG 27 HOU 6 36.8 31.5 7.3 12.3 1.5 0.0 4.8 0.647
24.86 4 33.94 5 156 6 Kevin Durant SF 28 GSW 6 35.2 30.0 8.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 2.0 0.684
24.20 5 31.25 8 153 7 DeMar DeRozan SG 27 TOR 6 37.2 33.7 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.579
23.79 6 36.80 2 172 3 Chris Paul PG 31 LAC 6 31.0 18.5 6.0 8.7 3.5 0.3 2.2 0.561
23.59 7 32.12 7 152 8 Damian Lillard PG 26 POR 7 36.3 32.0 5.7 4.9 0.9 0.1 2.9 0.638
23.08 8 35.23 4 164 4 Kawhi Leonard SF 25 SAS 7 31.4 26.4 5.4 3.4 2.4 0.4 1.7 0.615
18.36 9 26.38 10 134 19 Kemba Walker PG 26 CHO 5 33.4 24.4 3.0 4.6 1.4 0.0 2.8 0.595
17.97 10 26.86 9 146 10 Giannis Antetokounmpo SG 22 MIL 7 32.6 21.1 8.4 6.0 1.9 1.9 3.0 0.565
17.07 11 24.22 11 141 14 George Hill PG 30 UTA 7 33.9 20.4 2.9 5.0 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.650
16.51 12 24.13 12 140 16 Blake Griffin PF 27 LAC 6 32.8 20.3 9.7 3.0 1.3 0.5 2.0 0.524
16.05 13 23.70 13 122 29 Kevin Love PF 28 CLE 6 32.5 21.7 8.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.8 0.560

The top 8 – Russ, LeBron, Harden, KD, DeMar, CP3, Damian, & Kawhi – really stand out and up to this point have played like true superstars. Remember, WAR is tied to team wins – so a team that hasn’t won will have a roster with zero WAR. So a guy like Anthony Davis (274th in WAR while 5th in HnI) will jump up the rankings the moment his team garners a win or two.

Here are the top producers at specific statistical skill sets, in terms of Points Added per 100 possessions to an average NBA lineup:

Player Statistical Skill Set PA
Channing Frye 3pt Production 16.3
DeMar DeRozan 2pt Production 15.6
Hassan Whiteside 2pt Production 12.9
Salah Mejri 2pt Production 12.8
Enes Kanter 2pt Production 10.6
Kawhi Leonard Free Throw Production 10.1
Chris Paul Assist-Turnover Production 9.7

Yes, Channing Frye hitting 10 of 19 three pointers in 62 minutes lands him at the top of this list. Not expecting he’ll stay. Steph Curry was a +12.2 last season in terms of his three point production, which was easily the top Points Added of any statistical skill set for the NBA that year. At the moment this season, he is “merely” a +4.1 (39th in the NBA).

Dan

Ranking ALL NBA players by Wins Above Replacement

Here you go, all the data:

Thru11-2-16NBAPlayerRatings

For those who refuse to ever download or click on anything – here’s 14 guys projecting a final WAR above 15. The above spreadsheet has ALL the gory details – broken down into the minutiae, if you crave more:

WARpace Rank WAR/48 Rank HnI Rank Player Age G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
49.78 1 66.32 1 201 1 Russell Westbrook 28 4 37.0 37.8 10.8 10.0 1.5 0.3 6.0 0.543
29.06 2 37.45 4 164 6 DeMar DeRozan 27 4 37.3 36.3 5.3 2.3 1.5 0.0 2.8 0.602
28.11 3 37.48 3 153 7 Kevin Durant 28 4 36.0 28.5 9.0 4.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 0.663
27.35 4 35.71 5 179 2 James Harden 27 5 36.8 31.8 7.0 12.4 1.2 0.0 4.6 0.644
25.49 5 38.02 2 172 3 Kawhi Leonard 25 5 32.2 28.4 4.2 3.8 3.0 0.2 1.8 0.643
23.17 6 30.54 7 140 14 LeBron James 32 4 36.5 20.5 9.5 9.5 0.3 0.5 3.8 0.562
21.56 7 33.09 6 166 4 Chris Paul 31 4 31.3 18.8 6.0 7.8 3.3 0.0 2.8 0.586
20.61 8 27.67 8 140 13 Giannis Antetokounmpo 22 4 35.8 23.3 9.5 5.8 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.564
19.79 9 27.20 9 133 20 Kyrie Irving 24 4 35.0 26.8 3.5 4.0 0.5 0.5 2.8 0.601
18.45 10 25.54 10 131 26 Isaiah Thomas 27 4 34.8 24.3 3.0 7.5 1.8 0.3 3.3 0.606
17.51 11 24.17 12 145 8 George Hill 30 5 34.8 21.4 3.0 4.6 1.0 0.4 1.4 0.656
17.04 12 23.15 15 143 10 Damian Lillard 26 5 36.8 32.6 6.0 4.6 1.0 0.2 3.2 0.608
17.02 13 24.20 11 133 21 Kemba Walker 26 4 33.8 23.0 2.3 5.5 1.8 0.0 2.5 0.601
16.35 14 23.76 13 142 11 Blake Griffin 27 4 33.0 20.0 10.8 3.3 1.5 0.8 2.5 0.500

Russell Westbrook is the very early, very strong leader for POY. He, like, totally doesn’t suck.

Enough of the high brow analysis. Later.

Dan

Ranking all NBA players by Wins Above Replacement

And I’m back.

For those of you that missed me and have been asking about me – yes, it appears I am returning back to the grid with NBA and NCAA basketball player ratings & rankings, as well as more advanced stuff (updated draft model & retrodiction, player projections across leagues, etc.). But, for now, we’ll ease in with the more familiar – here’s the spreadsheet with all the player data for your perusal:

Thru10-30NBAPlayerRatings

For those who refuse to ever download or click on anything – here’s 16 guys projecting a final WAR above 15. The above spreadsheet has ALL the gory details – broken down into the minutiae, if you crave more:

WARpace Rank WAR/48 Rank Player
51.67 1 66.95 1 Russell Westbrook
31.64 2 39.97 3 Kevin Durant
29.43 3 38.76 4 Damian Lillard
27.15 4 41.75 2 Kawhi Leonard
25.70 5 33.59 8 LeBron James
25.61 6 32.93 9 James Harden
25.46 7 36.87 5 Blake Griffin
23.03 8 35.51 6 Chris Paul
22.82 9 34.91 7 DeMarcus Cousins
18.58 10 28.25 11 Jimmy Butler
18.44 11 25.25 15 Kyrie Irving
16.56 12 21.78 22 DeMar DeRozan
16.22 13 22.90 17 Kemba Walker
15.96 14 20.86 26 Avery Bradley
15.92 15 26.41 13 Paul Millsap
15.73 16 22.85 18 Rudy Gay

The official NBA players of the week were Westbrook and Lebron, and my WAR completely agreed.

Anyway – yes, I will start becoming active on Twitter again. Yes, I will try to answer any or all questions that spring up in the comments below, or Twitter, or my email. I will update every article and ranking with a tweet or two (or three) – so feel free to follow me and add me to your basketball or analytics lists if you find stuff like this fun or enlightening.

Dan