Category Archives: Player Projections

Final West Coast Conference Player WAR Rankings

(I will be crunching the numbers and giving complete player rankings for EVERY D1 conference, using conference only stats and win/loss results as each conference regular season ends. The “write ups” will follow pretty similar formats, since I don’t really have the time to spend much time with each write up. Will obviously tweet out results as usual as soon as each post is up. At the end of each conference write up, I will try to include links to all conference write ups that have already been posted – and maybe an ETA for the next conference.)

Click the following link for ALL the data in excel, fully sortable – including an FAQ sheet:

2017WCCplayerWARranking

What we may garner from the above results….

1st Team All Conference:
WAR Rk WAR/40 Rk HnI Rk Player Yr School G M/g P/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
4.44 1 5.81 2 156 4 Eric Mika SO Brigham Young 18 30.6 20.0 9.7 1.4 0.6 2.1 2.1 2.4 0.563
4.37 2 6.45 1 176 1 Jock Landale JR Saint Mary’s (CA) 18 27.1 16.2 9.2 1.6 0.1 1.2 1.7 2.7 0.606
3.92 3 4.48 5 132 9 KJ Feagin SO Santa Clara 18 35.5 15.2 3.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.605
3.64 4 4.84 3 172 2 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 17 31.8 17.9 5.6 4.7 1.8 0.0 2.1 1.4 0.626
3.47 5 3.95 7 120 20 Lamond Murray SR Pepperdine 18 35.2 21.6 5.6 1.5 1.1 0.3 2.7 2.1 0.553

Seven of the top 11 players in terms of HnI were Zags, which then allowed for their 17 team wins to be spread out quite a bit on that roster. Thus, Nigel Williams-Goss ended up with a bit lower WAR than his stellar HnI would initially suggest.

Player of the Year: Jock Landale of Saint Mary’s gets the nod, #1 in WAR/40 (6.4) & HnI (176). Erik Mika of BYU did eek out #1 in Wins Above Replacement (4.4).

 

Players who topped the conference in something or another in terms of rating subsets:

(value is in “Points Added” to average conference lineup per 70 possessions)

Eric Mika of BYU: #1 in Free Throw Production Rating (+4.6 PA)

Jock Landale of Saint Mary’s: #1 in overall Scoring Rating (+10.2 PA), Two Point Production Rating (+11.4 PA), & Rebound Rating (+6.2 PA)

Joe Rahon of Saint Mary’s: #1 in Handles/Passing Rating (Assists & Turnovers, +5.1 PA)

Evan Fitzner of Saint Mary’s: #1 in Three Point Production Rating (+7.6 PA)

Petr Herman of Loyola Marymount: #1 in Defensive Stops Rating (steals, blocks, & fouls, +4.3 PA)

 

Previous Final 2017 Conference Player WAR Ranking links:
America East Conference
Atlantic Sun Conference
Big South Conference
Colonial Athletic Association
Horizon League
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Missouri Valley Conference
Northeast Conference
Ohio Valley Conference
Pac 12 Conference
Patriot League

Dan

Is there room in the NBA for Thomas Walkup?

I posted this steam of consciousness “take” on Thomas Walkup at the APBRmetrics board, decided to go ahead and post it here:

kjb asks:

Has anyone seen Thomas Walkup play? He’s older and he played against weaker competition, but was very productive. Looks like he’ll go undrafted. Might be a nice UdFA for someone.

Thomas Walkup is an exceptional player. I watched him a few times last season – including every minute his stand out play in the NCAA tourney against supposedly “better” competition.

There’s an element of play that can’t be easily pinpointed that results in exceptional production at the college level (adjusting for comp, etc) – it’s a court awareness, hand eye coordination, alpha male type thing. Combine data (length, standing reach, etc) usually does it no justice. In football – it’s like Tom Brady going into the draft. Or Tony Romo. There’s just something, innate ability to feel the rush, read the defense, stay cool under pressure. In college basketball – it usually manifests itself in ACTUAL high level performances again & again that greatly outpaces many players who will be drafted well ahead of said player. Now, these players do tend to be older – so there’s an easy excuse to overlook them. Draymond Green was one of these guys coming out of college. Denzell Valentine is one. Brice Johnson is one. Buddy Hield would have been one if he wasn’t breaking three point records – which got him lottery attention.

Obviously my ratings love Walkup, my projections will love him (despite low three point attempts for a guard and his advanced age). He has a very nice shooting stroke – I don’t see any reason why he won’t be an effective 3pt shooter. To me, I FULLY EXPECT him to be a BETTER Dellavedova type player. He was easily THE star (NO teammates anywhere close to a next level player) on a top 30 college team. Stephen F Austin ended up MUCH better than LSU & Simmons (NOT saying he’s a better prospect than Simmons btw, just making point about player impact). They were MUCH better than Washington – who somehow could have TWO players in the lottery who weren’t even close to the best players on their own Huskies team. Stephen F Austin was a fairly high level college team almost solely because of Thomas Walkup. He’s obviously a immense gym rat by looking at his level of usage, assist rate, mid range efficiencies. He’s built like a 6’4″ piece of granite.

Slightly related note – would Larry Bird or Charles Barkley be high lottery picks if they came out of college in today’s game? Bird was OLD, slow, not athletic, and starred on a team not much different than Stephen F Austin. Would be an elite three point shooter – that’d maybe get him in the lottery?

Barkley was a 6’4″ fat post player with little face up game yet – although he ran the court great for a fat guy. I can’t imagine an NBA team giving him the time of day in today’s draft (fear of injury, eating himself out of the league, not being able to defend any position).

In terms of college production, Bird & Barkley would have easily been right at the top of their draft classes according to my draft model. Teams OFTEN drafted back then more according to relative college production (although at times did a poor job of adjusting correctly for pace, SoS, etc – think Bo Kimble) – and it seems when they ventured away from that (like they do often now) they usually failed miserably (think Chris Washburn & Olowokandi). It seems when high school kids became part of the draft – NBA teams started to put MUCH more importance into combine results and private workouts, in many cases almost completely ignoring relative college production. I think this is part of the reason why the draft has turned so much into a crapshoot for many teams – it’d be like baseball teams almost completely ignoring minor league production when considering who to call up – relying instead on 40 times, bench press, shuttle runs, and private workouts to judge players. Makes it easy for a draft model like mine (through retrodictions) to historically outperform actual draft positions while ignoring 95% of the data (combines, workouts, interviews, medical records, etc) most NBA teams consider.

So, again, my draft model will love Walkup. My eye’s saw a next level player – I saw a college player that produced in a way I would have expected a 23 year old Manu Ginobili to produce if he played on that SFA team – high motor, high usage, great efficiency across the board, good assist rate, etc. I’ll bet about anything he’ll prove to be well worth the “risk” of a late 2nd round pick or FA signing.

Dan

Draft Model Podcast

If anyone has the desire to put a voice behind the numbers you see here – I just finished  a podcast with Coach Nick (@bballbreakdown) going over some basics behind my draft modeling. It was the first radio or podcast I’ve done, it was honestly a blast, so more are probably in the mix. Enjoy:

NBA Draft Models With Dan Dickey

Thanks to everyone who follows me, hopefully that helped give a better sense on where I’m coming from and why I do what I do.

Dan