I’m back! I didn’t get time off work during the holidays – but my wife and kids did. So, in my spare time, I did family stuff almost non stop. So as a result, Hoops Nerd dot com has been on a bit of a hiatus.
I’ve been feeling under the weather today, couldn’t sleep – so finally finished up some behind the scenes rating stuff (my final revamping of team ratings) so I could post updated NCAA player rankings. The results are through this last Sunday’s games:
Since I get asked this every time I post, these rankings are with everything considered – stats, pace, playing time in relation to teammates, etc. HnR is the overall season rating, while HnI is the rating when the player is actually available to play (ignores missed games, better predictive value for player impact).
Here are some quick tidbits through 1-12-14:
HnR NCAA MOP: Alan Williams (UC Santa Barbara)
HnR 1st Team AA: Alan Williams (UC Santa Barbara), Lamar Patterson (Pitt), KJ McDaniels (Clemson), Casey Prather (Florida), Doug McDermott (Creighton)
HnR All Senior Team: Lamar Patterson (Pitt), Casey Prather (Florida), Doug McDermott (Creighton), Justin Jackson (Cincy), Javon McCrea (Buffalo)
HnR All Junior Team: Alan Williams (UC Santa Barbara), KJ McDaniels (Clemson), Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin), TaShawn Thomas (Houston), Brad Waldow (St. Mary’s)
HnR All Sophomore Team: Marcus Smart (OK State), Jameel Warney (Stoney Brook), D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera (Georgetown), Ron Baker (Wichita State), Kyle Anderson (UCLA)
HnR All Frosh Team: Joel Embiid (Kansas), Jabari Parker (Duke), Julius Randle (Kentucky), Tyler Ennis (Syracuse), Noah Vonleh (Indiana)
Highest Rated player < 25 mpg: Joel Embiid (Kansas) – 17th nationally with a 161 HnR despite only 21.5 mpg.
Highest Rated player < 19 mpg: James Farr (Xavier) – 127th nationally with a 141 HnR despite only 15.4 mpg.
Highest Rated player < 15 mpg: Moses Kingsley (Arkansas) – 154th nationally with a 139 HnR depite only 10.9 mpg.
Highest Rated player < 10 ppg: Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky) – 30th nationally with a 157 HnR despite only 9.4 ppg.
Highest Rated player < 8 ppg: TJ McConnell (Arizona) – 67th nationally with a 149 HnR despite only 7.2 ppg.
HnI suggests that currently #1 Arizona’s 7th best player (Gabe York, ranked 251st nationally in HnI with a 132 rating) would be the BEST player on 200 of the 351 D1 teams.
The Best Sidekick (2nd best player on team): Sean Kilpatrick (Cincy) 22nd nationally with 160 HnI (teammate Justin Jackson 6th nationally with 170 HnI). Next best sidekick would be Roy-Devyn Marble (Iowa) 28th nationally with a 158 HnI (teammate Aaron White 17th nationally with a 162).
Best “3rd best player on a team”: Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa) 69th nationally with a 150 HnI. Runner up – Gary Harris (Michigan State) 77th nationally with a 148 HnI.
Best “4th best player on a team”: Branden Dawson (Michigan State) 79th nationally with a 147 HnI. Runner up – Aaron Gordon (Arizona) 139th nationally with a 141 HnI.
Best “5th best player on a team”: Brandon Ashley (Arizona) 152nd nationally with a 139 HnI. Runner up – Marc Loving (Ohio State) 199th nationally with a 136 HnI.
Best “6th best player on a team”: Kaleb Tarczewski (Arizona) 188th nationally with a 136 HnI. Runner up – Aaron Craft (Ohio State) 287th nationally with a 131 HnI.
Best “7th best player on a team”: The aforementioned Gabe York (Arizona), with runner up being Rakeem Christmas (Syracuse) 416th nationally with a 125 HnI.
While Arizona obviously has the best 7 deep rotation – Iowa has the best 10 deep rotation, their 10th best player producing a solid 118 HnI (100 is pretty much an average D1 player).
There you go, some bits of D1 college basketball analytics for you to gnaw on. Any questions, please leave a comment or hit me up on Twitter. Thanks.