…. because I’m compiling the best work from others, & throwing in my own historical player ratings & rankings. I love this stuff, & in almost all cases compiling the hard work from others will produce a consensus that has a best chance of correlating to future reality. Also, I don’t project freshmen – so I’m forced to include others who (albeit subjectively) do. Here’s the list of sources included, whose rankings will be mixed in with my rankings based on players’ last season HnI rating:
CBS Sports Top 100 (plus 1) – it’s actually 102, since they mistakenly listed #95 twice.
While I’m here – please check out two other sites if you need MORE of a college basketball fix (particularly one with numbers):
Ken Pomeroy – pretty much THE site to frequently visit as the season progresses. If you are even a wee bit a numbers guy, pay the $20 yearly subscription – it’s worth it.
Luke Winn at SI – with Dan Hanner‘s work they put together quite an impressive amount of preseason college projections (at the team & player level).
So, here’s what I did:
I took each ranking result (from the three sources listed above), and assigned 102 points for a #1 rank (since CBS had 102 players ranked), 101 for #2, all the way down to 3 for #100, 2 for #101, & 1 for #102.
I then found the top 102 returning players based on my ratings from their last college season played. The vast majority are from last season, with a small handful (transfers who sat out last season, & one who who missed last season due to injury) from ’14-15 . Anyway, I ranked my guys based on their last HnI rating, & assigned points just like above.
If a player ranked #1 in ever source, they’d total 408 points (102×4).
Now, I know what you are saying: “HEY, your work, Mr. HoopsNerd, doesn’t include ANY freshmen.” Well, that is very true. My answer – every source everywhere who subjectively ranks college players ALWAYS greatly overrates freshmen. When it’s all said & done, based on actual college performance (not NBA potential) there won’t be 5 freshmen in the final top 10 players nationally (like one source has), & especially not 7 in the final top 11 (as another source has). This is amplified by the fact that many of these freshmen play on the same team together – & there’s just ONE ball to effectively produce with.
There might be, at MOST in a superb freshmen class, two freshmen in the top 10 player rankings by season’s end. Maybe four at most in the top 20. Feel free to look at my historical final player ratings & rankings if you don’t believe me.
Now, IF you want to read a write up on any or all players I will be ranking – PLEASE visit the player ranking links I listed above, they ALL took time to write up at least a blurb about every player. I don’t have the time, I never do. I’d love for them to get more visitors – their work, in my opinion, deserve more attention than the plethora of bracketology write ups that happen MONTHS before the actual tourney. But, for some reason the latter gets all the eyes.
Anyway, here is the spreadsheet you can pull up (with last season’s stats & HnI rating)- fully sortable any way you desire (168 players ranked):
2016-17CollegePreasonPlayerRankPOST
For those of you who won’t ever download a spreadsheet – here’s the “Consensus” preseason Top 100 players, with their rank from each source:
RANK | Player | Team | Conf | Cla | HN | SBN | CBS | NBC | Total |
1 | Grayson Allen | Duke | ACC | JR | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 402 |
2 | Josh Hart | Villanova | Big East | SR | 7 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 383 |
3 | Ivan Rabb | California | Pac-12 | SO | 11 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 381 |
4 | Jaron Blossomgame | Clemson | ACC | SR | 8 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 365 |
5 | Dillon Brooks | Oregon | Pac-12 | JR | 35 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 355 |
6 | Alec Peters | Valparaiso | Horizon | SR | 2 | 17 | 16 | 29 | 348 |
7 | Monte Morris | Iowa St. | Big 12 | SR | 48 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 345 |
8 | Moses Kingsley | Arkansas | SEC | JR | 13 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 335 |
9 | Melo Trimble | Maryland | Big Ten | JR | 34 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 334 |
10 | Thomas Bryant | Indiana | Big Ten | SO | 25 | 29 | 17 | 9 | 332 |
11 | Ethan Happ | Wisconsin | Big Ten | SO | 4 | 39 | 38 | 27 | 304 |
12 | Jawun Evans | Oklahoma St. | Big 12 | SO | 14 | 37 | 25 | 34 | 302 |
13 | Markelle Fultz | Washington | Pac-12 | FR | 5 | 2 | 1 | 301 | |
14 | Josh Jackson | Kansas | Big 12 | FR | 2 | 4 | 3 | 300 | |
15 | Frank Mason | Kansas | Big 12 | JR | 47 | 15 | 36 | 17 | 297 |
16 | Jayson Tatum | Duke | ACC | FR | 6 | 5 | 6 | 292 | |
17 | Malcolm Hill | Illinois | Big Ten | SR | 28 | 33 | 28 | 33 | 290 |
18 | London Perrantes | Virginia | ACC | SR | 38 | 19 | 39 | 26 | 290 |
19 | Harry Giles | Duke | ACC | FR | 9 | 7 | 8 | 285 | |
20 | Devonte’ Graham | Kansas | Big 12 | JR | 54 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 283 |
21 | Kris Jenkins | Villanova | Big East | SR | 19 | 36 | 33 | 46 | 278 |
22 | Dennis Smith | NC State | ACC | FR | 13 | 9 | 10 | 277 | |
23 | Jack Gibbs | Davidson | A-10 | SR | 16 | 30 | 29 | 62 | 275 |
24 | Edrice Adebayo | Kentucky | SEC | FR | 16 | 6 | 16 | 271 | |
25 | James Blackmon | Indiana | Big Ten | JR | 5 | 38 | 41 | 57 | 271 |
26 | Austin Nichols | Virginia | ACC | JR | 69 | 40 | 21 | 12 | 270 |
27 | Trevon Bluiett | Xavier | Big East | JR | 43 | 24 | 40 | 37 | 268 |
28 | D’Aaron Fox | Kentucky | SEC | FR | 11 | 15 | 20 | 263 | |
29 | Lonzo Ball | UCLA | Pac-12 | FR | 10 | 22 | 14 | 263 | |
30 | Nigel Williams-Goss | Gonzaga | WCC | JR | 72 | 23 | 44 | 15 | 258 |
31 | Malik Monk | Kentucky | SEC | FR | 20 | 11 | 22 | 256 | |
32 | Justin Jackson | North Carolina | ACC | JR | 58 | 21 | 35 | 43 | 255 |
33 | Nigel Hayes | Wisconsin | Big Ten | SR | 62 | 18 | 19 | 58 | 255 |
34 | Joel Berry | North Carolina | ACC | JR | 44 | 41 | 42 | 32 | 253 |
35 | Chris Boucher | Oregon | Pac-12 | SR | 3 | 52 | 55 | 54 | 248 |
36 | Edmond Sumner | Xavier | Big East | SO | 22 | 20 | 19 | 248 | |
37 | Tyler Lydon | Syracuse | ACC | SO | 94 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 245 |
38 | Jordan Woodard | Oklahoma | Big 12 | SR | 42 | 35 | 61 | 55 | 219 |
39 | Miles Bridges | Michgan St. | Big Ten | FR | 32 | 26 | 35 | 216 | |
40 | Tyler Davis | Texas A&M | SEC | SO | 15 | 73 | 53 | 63 | 208 |
41 | Allonzo Trier | Arizona | Pac-12 | SO | 34 | 31 | 36 | 208 | |
42 | Dedric Lawson | Memphis | AAC | SO | 79 | 53 | 47 | 38 | 195 |
43 | Bronson Koenig | Wisconsin | Big Ten | SR | 28 | 32 | 56 | 193 | |
44 | Kelan Martin | Butler | Big East | JR | 60 | 49 | 63 | 52 | 188 |
45 | Tyler Cavanaugh | George Washington | A-10 | SR | 32 | 64 | 46 | 83 | 187 |
46 | Johnathan Motley | Baylor | Big 12 | JR | 51 | 84 | 50 | 40 | 187 |
47 | Peter Jok | Iowa | Big Ten | SR | 66 | 46 | 43 | 70 | 187 |
48 | Dwayne Bacon | Florida St. | ACC | FR | 43 | 30 | 49 | 187 | |
49 | Maurice Watson Jr. | Creighton | Big East | SR | 100 | 42 | 45 | 41 | 184 |
50 | Jonathan Isaac | Florida St. | ACC | FR | 54 | 34 | 39 | 182 | |
51 | Michael Young | Pittsburgh | ACC | SR | 22 | 72 | 58 | 82 | 178 |
52 | Carlton Bragg Jr. | Kansas | Big 12 | SO | 52 | 78 | 62 | 45 | 175 |
53 | Jarrett Allen | Texas | Big 12 | FR | 55 | 37 | 47 | 170 | |
54 | Caleb Swanigan | Purdue | Big Ten | SO | 44 | 51 | 44 | 170 | |
55 | Marcus Foster | Creighton | Big East | JR | 59 | 52 | 28 | 170 | |
56 | Donovan Mitchell | Louisville | ACC | SO | 31 | 80 | 31 | 167 | |
57 | O.G. Anunoby | Indiana | Big Ten | SO | 61 | 57 | 24 | 167 | |
58 | Elijah Brown | New Mexico | MWC | JR | 37 | 74 | 59 | 77 | 165 |
59 | Andrew White III | Syracuse | Big East | SR | 45 | 62 | 65 | 76 | 164 |
60 | Lauri Markkanen | Arizona | Pac-12 | FR | 68 | 27 | 51 | 163 | |
61 | E.C. Matthews | Rhode Island | A-10 | JR | 47 | 60 | 42 | 160 | |
62 | V.J. Beachem | Notre Dame | ACC | SR | 51 | 56 | 50 | 152 | |
63 | Kennedy Meeks | North Carolina | ACC | SR | 26 | 48 | 86 | 149 | |
64 | Zach LeDay | Virginia Tech | ACC | SR | 12 | 66 | 87 | 144 | |
65 | Charles Cooke | Dayton | A-10 | SR | 30 | 65 | 71 | 143 | |
66 | Gary Clark | Cincinnati | AAC | JR | 24 | 85 | 70 | 94 | 139 |
67 | Kevin Hervey | Texas-Arlington | Sun Belt | JR | 17 | 92 | 67 | 133 | |
68 | Tyler Dorsey | Oregon | Pac-12 | SO | 50 | 30 | 126 | ||
69 | J.J. Frazier | Georgia | SEC | SR | 1 | 81 | 124 | ||
70 | Jalen Brunson | Villanova | Big East | SO | 57 | 69 | 59 | 124 | |
71 | T.J. Cline | Richmond | A-10 | SR | 36 | 71 | 82 | 120 | |
72 | Xavier Rathan-Mayes | Florida St. | ACC | JR | 48 | 68 | 74 | 119 | |
73 | Jordan McLaughlin | USC | Pac-12 | JR | 85 | 67 | 90 | 53 | 117 |
74 | Yante Maten | Georgia | SEC | JR | 20 | 93 | 80 | 116 | |
75 | Jalen Adams | Connecticut | AAC | SO | 58 | 64 | 71 | 116 | |
76 | Deng Adel | Louisville | ACC | SO | 45 | 48 | 113 | ||
77 | Jaylen Adams | St. Bonaventure | A-10 | JR | 57 | 56 | 92 | 104 | |
78 | Mikal Bridges | Villanova | Big East | SO | 71 | 75 | 61 | 102 | |
79 | Amile Jefferson | Duke | ACC | SR | 18 | 87 | 101 | ||
80 | Shake Milton | SMU | AAC | SO | 63 | 85 | 60 | 101 | |
81 | Mike Daum | South Dakota St. | Summit | SO | 9 | 97 | 100 | ||
82 | Isaiah Hicks | North Carolina | ACC | SR | 27 | 80 | 99 | ||
83 | Eron Harris | Michigan St. | Big Ten | SR | 60 | 49 | 97 | ||
84 | Isaac Hamilton | UCLA | Pac-12 | SR | 81 | 54 | 78 | 96 | |
85 | Marcus Marshall | Nevada | MWC | SR | 10 | 93 | |||
86 | Quinndary Weatherspoon | Mississippi St. | SEC | SO | 66 | 87 | 65 | 91 | |
87 | Justin Robinson | Monmouth | MAAC | SR | 21 | 95 | 90 | ||
88 | Antonio Campbell | Ohio | MAC | SR | 29 | 88 | 89 | ||
89 | Isaac Haas | Purdue | Big Ten | JR | 23 | 98 | 85 | ||
90 | Dane Pineau | Saint Mary’s | WCC | SR | 31 | 72 | |||
91 | Sindarius Thornwell | South Carolina | SEC | SR | 70 | 64 | 72 | ||
92 | Desi Rodriguez | Seton Hall | Big East | JR | 33 | 70 | |||
93 | Emmett Naar | Saint Mary’s | WCC | JR | 65 | 100 | 86 | 93 | 68 |
94 | Chris Flemmings | UNC Wilmington | CAA | SR | 50 | 89 | 67 | ||
95 | Abdul-Malik Abu | North Carolina St. | ACC | JR | 91 | 78 | 73 | 67 | |
96 | Antonio Blakeney | LSU | SEC | SO | 69 | 72 | 65 | ||
97 | Omer Yurtseven | North Carolina St. | ACC | FR | 76 | 66 | 64 | ||
98 | Landen Lucas | Kansas | Big 12 | SR | 39 | 64 | |||
99 | Josh Hawkinson | Washington St. | Pac-12 | SR | 41 | 101 | 64 | ||
100 | Isaiah Johnson | Akron | MAC | SR | 40 | 63 |
The spreadsheet has all 168 players, but posting 100 here probably is too much.
The Hoops Nerd ranking:
All are easily sortable in the spreadsheet – but here’s the 11 that had the highest ratings their last season played:
Player | Team | G | Mn/g | Pt/g | Rb/g | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | TS% | HnI | Year |
J.J. Frazier | Georgia | 34 | 32.1 | 16.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 0.562 | 164.0 | 15-16 |
Alec Peters | Valparaiso | 37 | 32.1 | 18.4 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.646 | 160.2 | 15-16 |
Chris Boucher | Oregon | 38 | 25.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.621 | 158.5 | 15-16 |
Ethan Happ | Wisconsin | 35 | 28.1 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.561 | 156.9 | 15-16 |
James Blackmon | Indiana | 13 | 24.5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.622 | 156.7 | 15-16 |
Grayson Allen | Duke | 36 | 36.6 | 21.6 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 0.610 | 156.4 | 15-16 |
Josh Hart | Villanova | 40 | 31.4 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.598 | 156.3 | 15-16 |
Jaron Blossomgame | Clemson | 31 | 34.2 | 18.7 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.608 | 155.4 | 15-16 |
Mike Daum | South Dakota St. | 34 | 20.8 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.649 | 154.8 | 15-16 |
Marcus Marshall | Nevada | 14 | 32.6 | 19.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.622 | 153.6 | 14-15 |
Ivan Rabb | California | 34 | 28.7 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.628 | 153.1 | 15-16 |
Yes, the #1 is JJ Frazier, who was ranked 81st by CBS, & left off the other 2 lists. He was superb last season, and I’m shocked he is so heavily overlooked by so many experts. That being said – if Grayson Allen just matches his production from last season, he will be a strong favorite for POY based on his name recognition & the team he plays for.
I also want to point out Chris Boucher, who is the REAL star at Oregon – while Dillon Brooks gets all the pub. Chris is a poor man’s Anthony Davis – he does EVERYTHING while being an elite rim protector. He even hits threes (something AD didn’t do in college). I’ve watched MANY of his games last season, I love the kid as a player. Maybe I shouldn’t call him a “kid”, he will be 24 in under 2 months. He’s over 6 years older than some freshmen – which I’m sure doesn’t at all hurt his ability to dominate on both ends of the court.
Finally, Mike Daum was almost completely overlooked by the other sites (#97 by CBS, off the other lists). His per minute offensive production as a freshman last season is eye popping. Marcus Marshall wasn’t on a single list, which I’m guessing is mainly because he didn’t even play a full season in ’14-15 – and he transferred from a small school (Missouri State) to one that doesn’t have much of a footprint (Nevada).
Well, that was fun. Feel free to comment below or hit me up on twitter about what you think (about this article, about college basketball, about our place in the universe – whatevs).