NCAA Tourney Player & Team Ratings & Rankings

First off, current national player rankings (3052 players rated & ranked) can be found here.

Now, the spreadsheet with EVERY tourney player (> 100 season minutes) rated & ranked in various ways. FAQ sheet included:

2017NCAAtourneyPlayerRatingsPOST

Now, some stuff….

Team Ratings?

I get asked for this a ton, so here you go. First off, the rating breakdowns of the entire NCAA and the various tourneys:

Entire 2017 NCAA, average team rating: 97.5

2017 NCAA Tourney, average team: 117.5

2017 NIT, average team: 109.5

2017 CBI, average team: 94.6

2017 CIT, average team: 92.3

Average team NOT in any tourney: 90.0

NCAA Tourney team ratings:

Left is the general team rating & rank, right is the team rating & rank (the order I have the teams) after compiling player ratings based on optimized plausible minutes (see M? in the spreadsheet). This rating accounts for players who may be out, and tightens the minute allocations – more tv timeouts, teams often can keep (and WANT to keep) their better players on the court longer.

TmRat Rank Team Region Seed Optimal R Rank Diff
139.1 1 Gonzaga West 1 144.3 1 5.2
136.5 3 North Carolina South 1 144.2 2 7.7
137.7 2 Villanova East 1 141.0 3 3.3
135.4 5 Kentucky South 2 139.7 4 4.3
135.6 4 West Virginia West 4 139.5 5 3.9
133.4 8 Duke East 2 139.4 6 6.0
133.9 6 Louisville Midwest 2 139.2 7 5.2
133.9 7 Kansas Midwest 1 138.6 8 4.7
128.2 17 Wisconsin East 8 136.8 9 8.5
131.0 11 Wichita St. South 10 136.6 10 5.6
120.0 30 South Carolina East 7 136.5 11 16.5
132.0 10 Florida East 4 136.1 12 4.1
127.7 19 SMU East 6 135.8 13 8.1
132.5 9 Virginia East 5 135.5 14 3.0
127.8 18 Arizona West 2 134.4 15 6.6
130.5 12 Purdue Midwest 4 134.2 16 3.7
125.5 24 Oklahoma St. Midwest 10 133.3 17 7.8
130.3 13 Oregon Midwest 3 133.3 18 2.9
129.0 16 Iowa St. Midwest 5 133.1 19 4.1
129.6 14 Baylor East 3 132.5 20 2.9
129.4 15 UCLA South 3 132.5 21 3.1
127.2 21 Cincinnati South 6 132.4 22 5.2
127.6 20 Florida St. West 3 131.9 23 4.3
126.1 22 Notre Dame West 5 130.1 24 4.0
125.9 23 Michigan Midwest 7 129.9 25 4.0
125.0 26 Butler South 4 129.4 26 4.4
125.5 25 Saint Mary’s West 7 128.7 27 3.2
117.9 38 Dayton South 7 127.6 28 9.7
118.7 34 Wake Forest South 11 126.2 29 7.5
124.7 27 Creighton Midwest 6 126.1 30 1.4
119.3 32 Minnesota South 5 125.5 31 6.2
120.2 29 Marquette East 10 124.7 32 4.5
118.4 35 Michigan St. Midwest 9 123.9 33 5.6
116.4 43 Seton Hall South 9 123.7 34 7.3
121.0 28 Miami-Florida Midwest 8 123.1 35 2.1
116.9 42 Rhode Island Midwest 11 122.4 36 5.6
119.2 33 Kansas St. South 11 121.9 37 2.7
117.4 40 Vanderbilt West 9 121.7 38 4.3
118.3 36 Arkansas South 8 121.6 39 3.3
117.9 37 Northwestern West 8 121.1 40 3.2
116.2 44 VCU West 10 120.9 41 4.8
117.4 39 Maryland West 6 120.8 42 3.3
114.4 46 Nevada Midwest 12 118.7 43 4.3
119.5 31 Xavier West 11 118.6 44 -0.9
114.6 45 USC East 11 118.0 45 3.4
114.0 47 Providence East 11 117.7 46 3.7
113.5 48 Middle Tennessee South 12 116.7 47 3.2
109.6 51 Vermont Midwest 13 116.4 48 6.8
111.6 49 UNC Wilmington East 12 116.0 49 4.4
117.0 41 Virginia Tech East 9 116.0 50 -1.0
110.7 50 Princeton West 12 115.4 51 4.7
105.5 54 New Mexico St. East 14 112.4 52 6.9
105.9 53 Bucknell West 13 112.3 53 6.3
108.8 52 East Tennessee St. East 13 112.2 54 3.4
101.7 55 Florida Gulf Coast West 14 105.4 55 3.8
99.3 58 Kent St. South 14 104.6 56 5.3
100.6 57 Iona Midwest 14 104.4 57 3.7
101.5 56 Winthrop South 13 104.0 58 2.6
97.8 59 Northern Kentucky South 15 103.7 59 5.9
96.0 61 North Dakota West 15 101.3 60 5.3
95.5 62 North Carolina Central Midwest 16 100.6 61 5.1
97.3 60 Troy East 15 100.4 62 3.2
94.5 64 Jacksonville St. Midwest 15 99.2 63 4.7
92.9 65 UC-Davis Midwest 16 99.1 64 6.2
91.9 67 New Orleans East 16 98.1 65 6.2
95.4 63 South Dakota St. West 16 97.6 66 2.3
90.9 68 Mount St. Mary’s East 16 95.9 67 5.0
92.2 66 Texas Southern South 16 95.0 68 2.8

The teams with the best difference usually spread out the minutes during the season, but with projected increased minutes to their most productive players their team rating just plain looks better. South Carolina & their crazy 16.5 differential- they have the best player in the nation. He missed 6 games this year, which hurt their team rating – but Sindarius Thornwell is now very much playing, & will probably dominate with 4 or more minutes per game than he averaged during the season. Throw in increased minutes to Chris Silva & PJ Dozier, they should scare some teams.

The teams at the bottom of differential, they have important players who are now out. Virginia Tech no longer has their 2nd best player Chris Clarke. Xavier does not have their best player Edmond Sumner. Creighton is without their star point guard Maurice Watson Jr. Oregon is missing Chris Boucher, but tightening their minutes and having a healthy Dillon Brooks (missing him earlier in the year hurt their rating) still gives them a slight team improvement over their season as a whole rating.

The rating above, here’s how you use them. I’ll use Arizona, MY team, as an example. They play North Dakota. The ratings on the right & the Vegas over/under line, we compute Arizona’s score thus:

Arizona = 134.4/(134.4+101.3)*147= 83.8

North Dakota = 101.3/(134.4+101.3)*147= 63.2

Arizona is favored right now by 17.5. I have Arizona by 20.6. Arizona is a solid bet.

That’s it for now, I have more I’d like to do, but the tourney is starting right now. I probably will add more fun stuff later (today?).

Dan

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