Sweet 16 Player Ratings, Game Predictions, NBA Player Comps, & the Kitchen Sink

OK, ALL the gory player rating details are in the following spreadsheet, with all the player rating & ranking breakdowns. Be aware, I included a sheet that contains EVERY player comp % for every player > 100 minutes in the Sweet 16 with every NBA player currently > 500 minutes on the season. [3/24 EDIT: those comps have already been tweaked & improved, so the info in the spreadsheet already isn’t the best version. Happens sometimes when I rush. Oh well. Future comps will be the improved version] That’s 52,772 lines of player comps. I included all the info for those who may find it fun to find the very worst comps – or for those who want to see ANY possible combination of Sweet 16 & NBA player.

2017Sweet16PlayerRatingsPOST

On to the fun.

The All Sweet 16 Teams. Yes, MANY different “teams”.

OK, here come a multitude of unconventional ways to look at the best players left in this tourney – by exploring various All Sweet 16 lineups. I didn’t just pick the top 5 guys for every lineup (all you have to do is sort the spreadsheet for that) – I put together the top 5 guys for every category who ALSO would be a viable lineup across the entire rating spectrum. I made sure EVERY lineup was BETTER than Sweet 16 average in ALL these rating subsets: 2pt production, 3pt production, FT production, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, & ball handling (assists & turnovers).

Those rules being set, here’s the All Sweet 16 teams:

The Overall All Sweet 16 Teams:
HnI 1st Team Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
207 Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
190 Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
174 Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
168 Frank Mason SR Kansas 36.1 20.8 4.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 2.4 2.1 0.613
169 Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
HnI 2nd Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
169 Johnathan Motley JR Baylor 30.4 17.3 9.9 2.4 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.1 0.566
164 Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina 23.9 12.7 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.3 0.558
157 Derrick Walton SR Michigan 34.8 15.4 4.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.612
157 Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
156 Jevon Carter JR West Virginia 31.8 13.3 4.9 3.8 2.5 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.570
HnI 3rd Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
159 Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 17.3 10.3 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 2.5 0.698
155 Josh Jackson FR Kansas 30.6 16.6 7.1 2.9 1.6 1.1 2.7 3.0 0.558
155 Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
154 De’Aaron Fox FR Kentucky 29.4 16.1 4.0 4.6 1.4 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.537
145 Joel Berry JR North Carolina 29.9 14.4 3.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 1.8 2.2 0.580
HnI 4th Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
156 Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
154 Allonzo Trier SO Arizona 31.6 17.1 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.614
153 Jordan Bell JR Oregon 28.4 10.8 8.3 1.8 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.646
150 Malik Monk FR Kentucky 32.1 20.0 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.582
143 Chris Chiozza JR Florida 21.8 7.1 3.3 3.7 1.3 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.541
HnI 5th Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
151 Tony Bradley FR North Carolina 15.0 7.5 5.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.8 0.593
151 Przemek Karnowski SR Gonzaga 22.8 12.4 5.9 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 0.598
149 Justin Jackson JR North Carolina 31.5 18.1 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.558
141 Tarik Phillip SR West Virginia 24.3 9.6 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.539
140 KeVaughn Allen SO Florida 28.4 13.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.583
HnI Honorable Mention Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
149 Isaiah Hicks SR North Carolina 23.4 12.4 5.7 1.4 0.4 0.7 1.7 3.0 0.640
148 Edrice Adebayo FR Kentucky 29.8 13.3 8.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.7 0.620
147 TJ Leaf FR UCLA 29.8 16.2 8.2 2.5 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.6 0.656
145 Devin Robinson JR Florida 26.4 11.4 6.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.2 0.575
142 Kevarrius Hayes SO Florida 17.4 6.1 4.3 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 2.4 0.624
142 Canyon Barry SR Florida 21.5 11.8 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.565
142 Isaac Haas JR Purdue 19.5 12.6 5.1 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.619
142 Vince Edwards JR Purdue 28.6 12.7 5.0 3.2 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.591
142 Nigel Hayes SR Wisconsin 32.3 13.8 6.6 2.7 0.8 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.504

Breakdown by team:

North Carolina: 2 2nds, 1 3rd, 2 5ths, 1 honorable mention

Florida: 1 4th, 1 5th, 3 honorable mentions

Gonzaga: 1 1st, 1 3rd, 1 5th

Purdue: 1 1st, 2 honorable mentions

Kentucky: 1 3rd, 1 4th, 1 honorable mention

Kansas: 1 1st, 1 3rd

Wisconsin: 1 1st, 1 honorable mention

West Virginia: 1 2nd, 1 5th

Oregon: 1 3rd, 1 4th

UCLA: 1 2nd, 1 honorable mention

Arizona: 2 4ths

South Carolina: 1 1st

Baylor: 1 2nd

Michigan: 1 2nd

Butler & Xavier did not have a player make the list.

All Scoring Rating lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Zach Collins FR Gonzaga 17.3 10.3 5.7 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 2.5 0.698
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Frank Mason SR Kansas 36.1 20.8 4.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 2.4 2.1 0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
All 2pt Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Isaac Haas JR Purdue 19.5 12.6 5.1 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.619
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
All Free Throw Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Allonzo Trier SO Arizona 31.6 17.1 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.614
Canyon Barry SR Florida 21.5 11.8 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.565
Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
Nigel Williams-Goss JR Gonzaga 32.3 16.7 5.8 4.7 1.7 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.608
All 3pt Production Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Derrick Walton SR Michigan 34.8 15.4 4.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.612
Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
Dillon Brooks JR Oregon 24.4 16.4 3.1 2.7 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.7 0.597
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Derek Willis SR Kentucky 21.9 7.0 5.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.620
All Rebounding Lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Kennedy Meeks SR North Carolina 23.9 12.7 9.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.3 0.558
Caleb Swanigan SO Purdue 32.5 18.5 12.6 3.0 0.4 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.613
Lauri Markkanen FR Arizona 30.6 15.8 7.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.633
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Chris Chiozza JR Florida 21.8 7.1 3.3 3.7 1.3 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.541
All Handles/Passing lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Tyler Lewis SR Butler 21.8 6.5 1.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.636
Lonzo Ball FR UCLA 35.0 14.7 6.1 7.6 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.675
Parker Jackson-Cartwright JR Arizona 24.9 5.9 2.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.575
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
All Defensive Stops lineup:
Player Cla Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g PF/g TS%
Sagaba Konate FR West Virginia 10.9 4.1 2.9 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.573
Ethan Happ SO Wisconsin 27.7 13.8 9.1 2.8 1.8 1.2 2.2 2.7 0.569
Sindarius Thornwell SR South Carolina 33.7 21.4 7.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.3 0.580
Jevon Carter JR West Virginia 31.8 13.3 4.9 3.8 2.5 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.570
Devonte’ Graham JR Kansas 35.2 13.3 3.2 4.3 1.6 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.588

Here’s something that needs to be noted about the greatness of Sindarius Thornwell – he is such an all-around great college player, than in order to make a lineup that excelled at any one skillset WHILE still being Sweet 16 above average across the board, he needed to be included. Not in one or two lineups – but in each & every one of them. I had no idea it would play out that way, but now his incredible overall rating makes even more sense to me.

Sweet 16 NBA Player Comps

[3/24 EDIT: I’m leaving this info, but I have already improved the comp modeling, which was giving too much disproportionate credit to scoring ratings & not enough toward the non scoring. If I had completed the comps a day earlier, I would have caught the error in weight. My bad.] I’d love to go into much greater details about the player comps in the spreadsheet, but I don’t nearly have the time and honestly have no clue where to start. Understand that these comps are based off 14 rating breakdowns, ratings adjusted for pace, SoS, team quality, etc. These Sweet 16 players ratings are relative to other Sweet 16 guys – thus I’m creating a “____ is to this Sweet 16 as ____ is to the NBA right now”.

These are statistical ratings (ABSOLUTELY NOT FUTURE NBA PROJECTIONS) – so it is very feasible for a 6’4″ NCAA guard who doesn’t hit many threes or get many assists, & rebounds well may find his best stat comp being a weaker rebounding NBA power forward. Take note of the Comp%, anything heading down into the mid 80s or lower starts matching players who are only really partly similar. I’m doing this to help people who are very familiar with NBA players understand what type of statistical impact to expect from some of these college guys they may not be as familiar with.

Due to lack of time & space, I will note three big name guys here for fun, & allow you to sort through the spreadsheet for any other comps you may want to find.

First, Lonzo Ball, like many “unique” college players (see Ethan Happ), has NO good comps (all below 85%). I believe this is due to his low FT rate (low frequency) with just a slightly above average overall scoring production, but with strong efficiencies & high assist rate. His comps look quite meh (no stars), he just honestly needed to score quite a bit more (even if there was some efficiency drop) to see star NBA point guard comps [3/24 Edit: his new comps are Rubio at 84.1%, Chris Paul at 82.9%, JJ Barea at 82.3%, Jeff Teague at 81.5%, then Sergio listed below at 81.2%]:

Sergio Rodriguez PG 30 PHI 85.0%
Yogi Ferrell PG 23 DAL 82.4%
Ricky Rubio PG 26 MIN 82.3%
Brandon Jennings PG 27 WAS 82.2%

His worst comp in the NBA is Anthony Davis, at 37%.

The guy I’ve been telling everyone for a while is the best player in all of college basketball (and it’s almost not close), Sindarius Thornwell, has the following comps [3/24 Update: Kawhi still #1 comp at 82.9%, Cousins 78.6%, Durant 77.9%, Butler 75.8%, Hayward 75.0%]:

Kawhi Leonard SF 25 SAS 85.6%
DeMarcus Cousins C 26 NOP 80.7%
Gordon Hayward SF 26 UTA 79.8%
Jimmy Butler SF 27 CHI 79.6%
Kevin Durant SF 28 GSW 77.7%

His comp% are also not strong, although Kawhi does stand out from all others – and is the best comp (highest comp%) from any player in this tourney to any NBA superstar (of the Westbrooks, Hardens, LeBrons, Kawhis, Durants, Stephs, Isaiahs, etc). Sindarius is above to WAY above average compared to the average Sweet 16 player in EVERY rating breakdown. That makes it hard to find a good comp, & the best ones you do find will be very good. His worst NBA comp is JR Smith at 36.5%

I’ll include De’Aaron Fox, since his comps made me laugh [3/24 Update: Wall 86.3, Griffin 85.2%, Wade 84.4%, Dragic 83.8%, Bledsoe 83.4%, Teague 83.2%]:

Blake Griffin PF 27 LAC 85.9%
Dwyane Wade SG 35 CHI 84.8%
John Wall PG 26 WAS 84.1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SF 22 MIL 83.2%
Derrick Rose PG 28 NYK 82.4%

If we threw out the big disparity in rebounding, Fox & Blake Griffin would be great comps. Even including the rebounding, Blake is still the top comp.  Blake’s best comp in this tourney is actually Nigel Hayes at 88.2%.

Probably the best comp to an NBA star is Frank Mason to Mike Conley, at 91%. Or, maybe Malik Monk to Bradley Beal at 90.5 [3/24 Edit: these last three comps I mention are still true, just with slightly different %’s].

That being said, just have fun with the spreadsheet if you are so inclined…

I am going to leave this for now, I have a baseball game to coach. I will end with the general team ratings, and optimized lineup team ratings (as described in my tourney write up)

Rating Rank Team Optimized Rank Diff
136.4 2 North Carolina 144.1 1 7.7
138.8 1 Gonzaga 143.5 2 4.8
135.8 3 West Virginia 139.4 3 3.6
135.3 4 Kentucky 139.2 4 3.9
135.1 5 Kansas 138.6 5 3.6
133.6 6 Florida 137.4 6 3.8
121.9 15 South Carolina 136.4 7 14.6
128.9 11 Wisconsin 136.1 8 7.2
128.4 12 Arizona 135.9 9 7.6
130.8 7 Purdue 134.9 10 4.0
129.9 10 Baylor 134.2 11 4.3
130.1 9 UCLA 133.7 12 3.6
126.7 13 Michigan 132.1 13 5.4
130.2 8 Oregon 131.7 14 1.5
125.1 14 Butler 129.2 15 4.1
121.1 16 Xavier 120.4 16 -0.7

The low difference between optimized and seasonal ratings for Oregon and Xavier are due to missing key players (Boucher & Sumner). South Carolina has Sindarius playing big minutes, they are much stronger right (as long as he stays out of any foul trouble) now than their seasonal rating (when Sindarius missed games) would suggest.

Using the optimized lineup data above, working with the Vegas O/U (so I don’t have to try to compute predicted game pace, that’s a bit of a pain in the ass), here’s the predicted outcomes of all the Sweet 16 games.

Predictions:

Michigan 74.1, Oregon 73.9

Gonzaga 76.1, West Virginia 73.9

Kansas 78.8, Purdue 76.7

Arizona 76.6, Xavier 67.9

North Carolina 80.9, Butler 72.6

South Carolina 68.3, Baylor 67.2

Kentucky 84.4, UCLA 81.1

Florida 66.1, Wisconsin 65.4

I hope you enjoyed my pu pu platter of information & data, please hit me up on twitter & spread the word if you did indeed find the info enlighting/interesting/unique/etc. Just trying to offer approaches to learning about players analytically – offering something that just can’t be found anywhere else.

Dan

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