Memphis vs. George Washington

For complete national player ratings/rankings: http://hoopsnerd.com//?p=191

For a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups: http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla %Min HnI Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Kethan Savage GWU So. 0.378 149 19.9 6.7 4.0 3.0 1.0 3.5 0.567
Patricio Garino GWU So. 0.554 136 17.2 6.0 2.7 2.2 1.2 2.8 0.596
Isaiah Armwood GWU Sr. 0.795 131 15.6 10.6 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.3 0.527
Shaq Goodwin Memphis So. 0.714 130 16.3 9.1 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.2 0.592
Michael Dixon Jr. Memphis Sr. 0.568 128 20.6 3.9 4.3 2.2 0.2 2.7 0.597
Joe Jackson Memphis Sr. 0.822 127 17.2 4.4 5.5 1.9 0.1 2.5 0.538
Kevin Larsen GWU So. 0.775 124 14.5 9.0 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 0.560
Joe McDonald GWU So. 0.708 121 11.3 6.3 5.6 2.1 0.1 3.0 0.516
Maurice Creek GWU Sr. 0.708 121 19.4 4.6 2.4 1.4 0.2 3.0 0.568
Nick King Memphis Fr. 0.274 121 17.8 12.0 1.0 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.538
Austin Nichols Memphis Fr. 0.560 116 16.1 7.6 0.8 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.586
Chris Crawford Memphis Sr. 0.736 115 12.0 5.4 4.0 2.1 0.4 2.2 0.527
Geron Johnson Memphis Sr. 0.689 115 12.9 7.0 5.2 1.9 0.7 3.6 0.482
David Pellom Memphis Sr. 0.295 111 12.6 8.4 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.9 0.656
Nick Griffin GWU Fr. 0.114 93 15.2 3.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.636
Dominic Woodson Memphis Fr. 0.105 92 14.4 11.2 2.4 1.8 1.5 3.2 0.419
Nemanja Mikic GWU Sr. 0.413 91 11.8 3.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.3 0.505
John Kopriva GWU Jr. 0.300 79 5.7 8.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 2.2 0.462
Kuran Iverson Memphis Fr. 0.131 77 10.7 7.1 3.3 1.4 0.7 4.0 0.413
Miguel Cartagena GWU Fr. 0.160 39 6.4 2.3 6.2 0.8 0.0 4.5 0.297

There’s supposedly a chance Kethan Savage plays – but at the moment I’m assuming he won’t.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players:

Player Team Cla Min? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Kethan Savage GWU So. 0 149 98 63 31 3 32 8 30
Patricio Garino GWU So. 30 136 89 58 22 9 29 2 24
Isaiah Armwood GWU Sr. 33 131 70 42 28 0 48 -1 18
Shaq Goodwin Memphis So. 29 130 76 56 19 1 40 -4 26
Michael Dixon Jr. Memphis Sr. 23 128 97 36 26 36 15 15 12
Joe Jackson Memphis Sr. 34 127 71 34 32 5 18 28 14
Kevin Larsen GWU So. 33 124 70 54 16 -1 43 5 7
Joe McDonald GWU So. 31 121 49 10 22 17 29 28 16
Maurice Creek GWU Sr. 31 121 95 19 22 55 20 -3 10
Nick King Memphis Fr. 12 121 74 49 18 6 54 -8 15
Austin Nichols Memphis Fr. 23 116 74 67 8 -1 32 -7 16
Chris Crawford Memphis Sr. 30 115 48 3 4 41 20 17 17
Geron Johnson Memphis Sr. 28 115 45 27 10 8 30 17 15
David Pellom Memphis Sr. 14 111 65 58 7 0 38 0 5
Nick Griffin GWU Fr. 5 93 84 14 -2 73 17 -9 -4
Dominic Woodson Memphis Fr. 7 92 37 34 3 0 51 -6 6
Nemanja Mikic GWU Sr. 17 91 49 4 4 42 16 1 3
John Kopriva GWU Jr. 13 79 20 14 7 0 39 -6 7
Kuran Iverson Memphis Fr. 0 77 26 28 3 -6 30 -4 12
Miguel Cartagena GWU Fr. 7 39 -3 -3 6 -6 9 20 -4

 

The team breakdowns by the optimal lineups:

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Memphis 120 67 38 16 13 29 9 15
GWU 117 66 31 18 18 32 5 12

Pomeroy has Memphis by 1.  The optimal lineups above (Min?) work out to Memphis winning by +2.2.

However, IF Kethan Savage plays for GWU and is at his normal level of effectiveness (doubtful?),  that’s a big swing (best player comes back – not having to go as deep on a bad bench).  With an effective Savage, the spread jumps to the favor of GWU by a +3.2.

I’m guessing the former, not the latter.

Dan

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