Sweet 16: Arizona vs. San Diego State

Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):

the NCAA Tourney player performance rankings,

the complete national player ratings/rankings (thru 3-25, 3064 players ranked),

a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,

and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups –  and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.

And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla GP HnI Mn/g Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Xavier Thames SDSU Sr. 35 169 31.2 22.2 3.8 4.2 2.2 0.2 1.8 0.552
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 36 157 32.6 20.0 4.8 3.4 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.552
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 36 148 30.8 16.1 10.1 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.9 0.497
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 36 144 32.0 10.5 4.5 6.8 2.2 0.3 2.2 0.530
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 36 143 25.0 14.3 9.1 2.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.532
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 22 138 27.7 16.6 8.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 2.4 0.588
Dwayne Polee II SDSU Jr. 32 137 17.7 19.0 7.4 0.9 2.4 1.2 2.2 0.575
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 34 134 28.5 14.0 9.1 0.7 0.2 1.4 2.4 0.621
Winston Shepard SDSU So. 34 129 26.6 17.6 7.4 3.2 1.5 0.5 3.4 0.473
Gabe York Arizona So. 36 127 21.4 13.0 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.530
Josh Davis SDSU Sr. 33 123 30.3 10.3 13.1 1.1 1.4 0.6 1.8 0.459
Skylar Spencer SDSU So. 35 120 23.9 8.0 7.1 0.4 1.2 4.2 1.3 0.549
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 22 119 4.6 9.4 11.8 0.8 0.8 2.0 2.4 0.667
J.J. O’Brien SDSU Jr. 34 119 27.7 11.4 6.8 1.6 1.0 0.5 2.0 0.508
Aqeel Quinn SDSU Jr. 31 110 16.5 12.6 4.0 2.4 1.8 0.2 1.8 0.489
Matt Shrigley SDSU Fr. 35 108 15.9 13.5 4.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.521
Dakarai Allen SDSU Fr. 29 94 10.6 9.5 4.4 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.8 0.448
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 22 81 8.6 8.0 4.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.3 0.528
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 32 75 5.7 8.7 3.5 3.7 2.0 0.0 2.6 0.388

Brandon Ashley won’t be playing for Arizona due to injury.

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Player Team Cla M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Xavier Thames SDSU Sr. 38 169 120 30 53 37 19 28 21
Nick Johnson Arizona Jr. 34 157 107 41 33 33 24 16 18
Aaron Gordon Arizona Fr. 34 148 74 58 9 7 54 9 17
T.J. McConnell Arizona Jr. 34 144 53 30 6 17 21 53 21
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona Fr. 27 143 73 46 27 0 50 7 19
Brandon Ashley Arizona So. 0 138 96 57 27 12 44 -9 8
Dwayne Polee II SDSU Jr. 30 137 107 45 23 39 37 -12 28
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona So. 32 134 86 56 30 0 49 -17 5
Winston Shepard SDSU So. 22 129 75 41 35 -1 40 1 18
Gabe York Arizona So. 30 127 66 5 11 50 20 21 6
Josh Davis SDSU Sr. 36 123 41 32 9 0 70 -7 15
Skylar Spencer SDSU So. 31 120 43 39 4 0 40 -9 40
Matt Korcheck Arizona Jr. 9 119 61 41 20 0 63 -15 9
J.J. O’Brien SDSU Jr. 30 119 54 35 17 2 39 -3 9
Aqeel Quinn SDSU Jr. 12 110 57 9 15 33 20 8 14
Matt Shrigley SDSU Fr. 1 108 67 12 10 45 19 2 10
Dakarai Allen SDSU Fr. 94 36 21 16 0 26 -3 24
Elliott Pitts Arizona Fr. 81 40 9 1 30 24 1 0
Jordin Mayes Arizona Sr. 75 21 7 15 -1 18 14 12

Again – no Brandon Ashley this game.

What really stands out to me is that 5 of the top 6 players in terms of ball handling (ast & to with pace/SoS factored) are Arizona Wildcats.  I would assume that would be a distinct advantage for Arizona  when both teams are fighting to get good shots.  Thames needs to play every minute of those predicted 38 minutes for SDSU, getting decent looks against the #1 defensive team in the nation won’t be easy – especially if he sits at all.

 

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Arizona 141.7 76.0 39.5 19.2 17.3 37.2 14.1 14.1
SDSU 132.6 73.0 34.7 23.1 15.3 39.4 1.1 21.4

These are very similar teams – elite defensively (although Arizona is undoubtedly the best in the nation), while offensively they can struggle at times to hit shots.  Arizona’s obvious advantage in ball handling (see BH above) will probably ensure better shots and better offensive efficiency.  Mind you, I’m not saying Arizona’s offensive efficiency will be good – it just has a solid chance of not being as bad as San Diego State, an offensive challenged good team facing the best defense in the nation.

Dan

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