Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):

the NCAA Tourney player performance rankings,

the complete national player ratings/rankings (thru 3-25, 3064 players ranked),

a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,

and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups –  and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.

And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Brandon Ashley won’t be playing for Arizona due to injury.

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Again – no Brandon Ashley this game.

What really stands out to me is that 5 of the top 6 players in terms of ball handling (ast & to with pace/SoS factored) are Arizona Wildcats.  I would assume that would be a distinct advantage for Arizona  when both teams are fighting to get good shots.  Thames needs to play every minute of those predicted 38 minutes for SDSU, getting decent looks against the #1 defensive team in the nation won’t be easy – especially if he sits at all.

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

These are very similar teams – elite defensively (although Arizona is undoubtedly the best in the nation), while offensively they can struggle at times to hit shots.  Arizona’s obvious advantage in ball handling (see BH above) will probably ensure better shots and better offensive efficiency.  Mind you, I’m not saying Arizona’s offensive efficiency will be good – it just has a solid chance of not being as bad as San Diego State, an offensive challenged good team facing the best defense in the nation.

Dan