Sweet 16: Tennessee vs. Michigan

Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):

the NCAA Tourney player performance rankings,

the complete national player ratings/rankings (thru 3-25, 3064 players ranked),

a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,

and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups –  and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.

And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194

HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:

Player Team Cla GP HnI Mn/g Pt/40 Rb/40 As/40 St/40 Bk/40 TO/40 TS%
Jarnell Stokes Tennessee Jr. 36 169 32.4 18.8 13.3 2.5 0.8 1.2 2.6 0.570
Nik Stauskas Michigan So. 34 152 35.4 19.7 3.5 3.8 0.7 0.4 2.1 0.639
Jordan McRae Tennessee Sr. 36 150 32.0 23.2 4.2 3.1 0.8 1.2 2.7 0.562
Jeronne Maymon Tennessee Sr. 36 130 28.6 13.9 11.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 2.5 0.574
Caris LeVert Michigan So. 35 129 34.1 15.4 5.2 3.3 1.3 0.3 1.9 0.556
Jon Horford Michigan Jr. 35 129 14.0 11.0 12.0 1.5 0.8 2.1 1.6 0.578
Jordan Morgan Michigan Sr. 35 128 19.7 12.1 10.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.674
Glenn Robinson III Michigan So. 35 128 31.9 16.4 5.5 1.5 1.2 0.4 1.6 0.561
Derrick Walton Michigan Fr. 35 124 26.5 12.2 4.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 2.3 0.576
Josh Richardson Tennessee Jr. 36 122 30.1 13.3 3.8 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.560
Spike Albrecht Michigan So. 35 120 15.1 9.0 3.1 5.6 1.4 0.1 1.2 0.569
Zak Irvin Michigan Fr. 35 119 15.5 17.1 3.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.584
Armani Moore Tennessee So. 32 116 12.7 9.5 6.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 0.8 0.519
Antonio Barton Tennessee Sr. 36 116 25.4 12.1 3.5 3.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 0.497
Darius Thompson Tennessee Fr. 36 115 16.5 6.1 4.8 5.7 2.4 0.5 2.2 0.481
Derek Reese Tennessee So. 23 95 10.7 8.7 11.3 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 0.432
A.J. Davis Tennessee Fr. 25 67 9.4 5.6 6.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.418

My metrics loved Jarnell Stokes all year (as well as last season to a lesser extent), guys like he, Kaminsky of Wisconsin, and even Thames of SDSU (all three Top 10 in HnR) get overlooked a bit because of team pace/style repress their stats.  Both Stokes & Kaminsky (Thames is out) have a small chance to end up with the Hoops Nerd #1 ranking – most likely needing to lead their teams to championships to get their overall already great seasonal ratings up another 5%.  When near the top nationally – it’s tough to jump up in just a few games, while easy to drop (as McBuckets did, crazy drop from solid #1 and a 185 rating to a shaky #2 and a 178 rating after the Baylor fiasco).

How does Horford only play 11 to 14 minutes per game?

 

Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):

Player Team Cla M? HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Jarnell Stokes Tennessee Jr. 38 169 102 66 36 0 72 2 13
Nik Stauskas Michigan So. 38 152 118 25 38 55 15 19 7
Jordan McRae Tennessee Sr. 37 150 124 41 41 42 20 7 13
Jeronne Maymon Tennessee Sr. 36 130 76 50 26 0 63 -9 6
Caris LeVert Michigan So. 37 129 79 24 22 33 23 17 12
Jon Horford Michigan Jr. 11 129 59 52 8 -1 60 0 12
Jordan Morgan Michigan Sr. 35 128 76 64 12 0 53 -3 4
Glenn Robinson III Michigan So. 36 128 85 54 21 10 28 0 12
Derrick Walton Michigan Fr. 31 124 65 16 20 30 20 24 4
Josh Richardson Tennessee Jr. 37 122 71 36 19 17 19 8 13
Spike Albrecht Michigan So. 11 120 48 7 11 30 14 47 8
Zak Irvin Michigan Fr. 1 119 94 13 7 74 18 -1 4
Armani Moore Tennessee So. 18 116 46 30 9 6 34 13 23
Antonio Barton Tennessee Sr. 33 116 54 12 12 30 17 20 6
Darius Thompson Tennessee Fr. 1 115 26 18 10 -1 22 40 22
Derek Reese Tennessee So. 95 29 10 10 10 56 -5 6
A.J. Davis Tennessee Fr. 67 17 11 -2 8 34 -4 3

Horford HAS to play more than 11 minutes – or Michigan will be destroyed on the boards.

Jordan McRae is underrated also (almost rated as well as Stauskus overall) – being a senior doesn’t help.  Outside of Doug McDermott – it seems like we only hear about underclassmen (like Stauskus in this game, rated the 12th best underclassman in the nation in my last update), I’m guessing because it’s all about where the guys will be drafted.  We can’t seem to enjoy college players for what they are – college players.  It’s a shame.

Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):

HnI Sco 2pt FT 3pt Reb BH Df
Tennessee 136.2 82.5 40.6 25.5 16.3 38.3 6.2 11.3
Michigan 131.7 82.2 35.9 21.3 24.9 28.8 12.4 8.2

Tennessee’s interior scoring & getting to the line vs. Michigan’s better passing & ranged shooting.  Once again I’ll say (as I did when seeding happened), Tennessee might be the best #11 seed ever (as well as Louisville the best #4 seed ever).  Not sure how much the committee watches the games, but they definitely have zero idea what metrics to use to judge teams, RPI being almost worthless.

Dan

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