Once again, don’t have the time to write much of anything for the games – spent all my spare time the last 36 hours on (this will lead each game write up):
a place to go for a simpler ranking with per game stats of all the remaining guys, the Sweet 16 player rankings,
and the Sweet 16 predicted game outcomes based on optimized lineups – and since I won’t have time to go over them (1st game starts in 2 hours) please go there if you want to see the predicted game results based on the ratings you’ll see in the individual game write ups.
And finally, for a general explanation of what I’m doing with the write ups (well, player rating break downs is probably more accurate): http://hoopsnerd.com//?page_id=194
HnI & per 40 minute averages of the players for this game:
|Glenn Robinson III||Michigan||So.||35||128||31.9||16.4||5.5||1.5||1.2||0.4||1.6||0.561|
My metrics loved Jarnell Stokes all year (as well as last season to a lesser extent), guys like he, Kaminsky of Wisconsin, and even Thames of SDSU (all three Top 10 in HnR) get overlooked a bit because of team pace/style repress their stats. Both Stokes & Kaminsky (Thames is out) have a small chance to end up with the Hoops Nerd #1 ranking – most likely needing to lead their teams to championships to get their overall already great seasonal ratings up another 5%. When near the top nationally – it’s tough to jump up in just a few games, while easy to drop (as McBuckets did, crazy drop from solid #1 and a 185 rating to a shaky #2 and a 178 rating after the Baylor fiasco).
How does Horford only play 11 to 14 minutes per game?
Rating breakdowns of the players (M? is the minute prediction from which the optimized ratings breakdown is based):
|Glenn Robinson III||Michigan||So.||36||128||85||54||21||10||28||0||12|
Horford HAS to play more than 11 minutes – or Michigan will be destroyed on the boards.
Jordan McRae is underrated also (almost rated as well as Stauskus overall) – being a senior doesn’t help. Outside of Doug McDermott – it seems like we only hear about underclassmen (like Stauskus in this game, rated the 12th best underclassman in the nation in my last update), I’m guessing because it’s all about where the guys will be drafted. We can’t seem to enjoy college players for what they are – college players. It’s a shame.
Team breakdowns based on the optimal lineups (M?):
Tennessee’s interior scoring & getting to the line vs. Michigan’s better passing & ranged shooting. Once again I’ll say (as I did when seeding happened), Tennessee might be the best #11 seed ever (as well as Louisville the best #4 seed ever). Not sure how much the committee watches the games, but they definitely have zero idea what metrics to use to judge teams, RPI being almost worthless.