Complete NCAA Player Ratings/Rankings

12-22-13 NCAA Player Ratings/Rankings

12-22-13 NCAA Player Rank By Team

12-22-13 NCAA Player Rank By Conference

Click on links above for COMPLETE rankings, while I present the Top 25:

Rank Player Team Yr GP Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnR
1 Brad Waldow Saint Mary’s Jr. 10 27.8 17.8 7.1 2.2 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.620 173
2 Casey Prather Florida Sr. 11 30.3 18.5 5.8 2.1 0.5 0.5 2.3 0.659 172
3 Cameron Bairstow New Mexico Sr. 11 30.5 20.6 7.1 2.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 0.615 171
4 K.J. McDaniels Clemson Jr. 11 30.0 17.6 6.6 1.0 1.2 2.8 2.0 0.593 167
5 Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati Sr. 11 29.9 18.7 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.0 1.6 0.620 167
6 Troy Huff North Dakota Sr. 10 28.7 22.7 6.7 1.2 2.6 0.1 1.7 0.601 167
7 Alan Williams UC Santa Barbara Jr. 9 31.2 23.1 10.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 2.3 0.579 166
8 Scott Eatherton Northeastern Jr. 12 29.5 17.0 10.1 1.6 0.8 1.8 2.9 0.622 165
9 Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh Sr. 12 28.8 17.1 4.5 4.6 1.5 0.3 1.9 0.649 165
10 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Jr. 12 27.6 14.6 5.8 1.2 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.646 164
11 John Brown High Point So. 10 28.6 18.7 8.1 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.603 164
12 Larry Nance Jr. Wyoming Jr. 12 32.3 16.9 9.9 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.7 0.638 163
13 Jabari Parker Duke Fr. 11 31.2 22.1 7.8 1.9 1.0 1.3 2.6 0.636 162
14 TaShawn Thomas Houston Jr. 13 32.9 17.4 9.3 1.3 1.5 3.8 1.7 0.633 162
15 Ron Baker Wichita State So. 12 29.3 14.1 4.3 3.4 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.655 161
16 Shabazz Napier Connecticut Sr. 11 33.9 15.5 6.7 5.6 1.9 0.5 2.8 0.605 161
17 Shawn Long Louisiana-Lafayette So. 12 28.9 21.2 11.3 0.4 0.7 2.7 2.8 0.599 159
18 Jordan Clarkson Missouri Jr. 11 33.0 19.9 3.8 4.3 1.3 0.4 2.7 0.605 159
19 T.J. Warren North Carolina State So. 11 34.3 23.9 7.3 0.8 1.7 0.5 1.7 0.598 159
20 Joel Embiid Kansas Fr. 11 20.7 10.5 6.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.673 159
21 Jameel Warney Stony Brook So. 13 30.6 15.9 9.6 2.2 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.645 158
22 Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin Jr. 12 29.6 16.1 7.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.0 0.656 157
23 Spencer Dinwiddie Colorado Jr. 12 31.3 15.7 3.5 3.9 1.6 0.3 1.7 0.653 157
24 Augustine Rubit South Alabama Sr. 12 28.7 17.8 9.8 1.4 0.7 0.8 2.0 0.562 157
25 Kendall Williams New Mexico Sr. 11 35.3 18.9 3.3 4.9 1.5 0.1 2.8 0.682 156

It’s too early.  Really.  I’ve never ranked players before January – the results are SO noisy, and can change drastically over just a few games.  Ratings are obviously more reliable the farther one gets into a season – and the larger the sample size gets.

But, I couldn’t help myself.

Few notes.  First, I’ve tweaked the team ratings a little to best convert Sagarin to a form of  TeamAdjustedOffensiveEfficiency/TeamAdjustedDefensiveEfficiency*100.  What I was doing was good, but this is better.  Won’t change historical results much, although maybe the top players ratings may come down a little – I’m really not sure until I impliment it on the past seasons.

Also, with Sagarin and the team ratings – I’m about certain he’s still using some built in pre-season bias in his team ratings (like 95% of the team ratings out there) – which makes the team results a little closer to the mean.  This makes player results closer to the mean as well.  As the season continues – and the ratings become unbiased (based SOLELY on this season) –  great players from good/great conferences tend to rise up the rankings if they continue their quality play.  The opposite is true for great players on teams from bad conferences (weak SoS) – they actually have to really improve their production as the season continues to offset the weakening SoS in order not to drop and get passed by the “big boys”.

I now get my data from BBState.  Like EVERY data source I’ve ever dealt with, there are some errors over the 352 teams.  I’ve found the vaste majority of the errors and corrected them (using cbb-reference, ESPN, or Statsheet).  I’ll have to do this every time I update ratings, but I note the errors to make corrections easier for myself with future updates.  I’m a stickler for having as clean a data set as possible, which makes auto updates impossible.

With all that – I ALWAYS find the results interesting.

There are about 8 youngsters (6 freshmen & 2 sophomores) that are pretty much hogging all the press in terms of current draft projections.  Here’s how these 8 currenty rank nationally:

Rank Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
13 Jabari Parker Duke 31.2 22.1 7.8 1.9 1.0 1.3 2.6 0.636
20 Joel Embiid Kansas 20.7 10.5 6.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.673
34 Marcus Smart Oklahoma State 30.0 18.0 4.4 3.8 2.8 0.7 3.0 0.570
44 Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 26.9 9.3 8.0 1.2 1.1 4.2 1.1 0.612
51 Julius Randle Kentucky 30.3 18.2 11.2 1.8 0.1 0.8 3.3 0.606
103 Noah Vonleh Indiana 22.2 12.0 9.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 0.612
132 Andrew Wiggins Kansas 30.4 15.5 5.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.7 0.568
150 Aaron Gordon Arizona 30.3 12.8 7.8 1.5 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.519

It’s interesting that at the moment Cauley-Stein actually barely ranks ahead of Randle.  All these guys are the top players on their teams, except Wiggins is currently third behind obviously Embiid but also Perry Ellis (109th with a 141 rating) – and Aaron Gordon is actually 5th on a crazy loaded while crazy balanced Arizona team (5 players in the Top 150 nationally, 5 players in the Top 15 of the Pac 12).  Aaron Gordon’s rating is actually a little lower than his McDonalds AA frosh teammate – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (125th with a 138 rating).

I’m excited to see how these rankings play out as the season progresses – hopefully the next update (next Monday?  Maybe?) will be much easier for me than this initial one was.

Dan

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