Click on links above for COMPLETE rankings, while I present the Top 25:
|1||Brad Waldow||Saint Mary’s||Jr.||10||27.8||17.8||7.1||2.2||0.6||1.9||0.8||0.620||173|
|3||Cameron Bairstow||New Mexico||Sr.||11||30.5||20.6||7.1||2.5||1.1||1.4||2.1||0.615||171|
|6||Troy Huff||North Dakota||Sr.||10||28.7||22.7||6.7||1.2||2.6||0.1||1.7||0.601||167|
|7||Alan Williams||UC Santa Barbara||Jr.||9||31.2||23.1||10.9||1.1||1.0||2.8||2.3||0.579||166|
|11||John Brown||High Point||So.||10||28.6||18.7||8.1||1.6||1.4||1.7||1.5||0.603||164|
|12||Larry Nance Jr.||Wyoming||Jr.||12||32.3||16.9||9.9||1.7||1.0||1.6||1.7||0.638||163|
|15||Ron Baker||Wichita State||So.||12||29.3||14.1||4.3||3.4||1.8||0.9||1.5||0.655||161|
|19||T.J. Warren||North Carolina State||So.||11||34.3||23.9||7.3||0.8||1.7||0.5||1.7||0.598||159|
|21||Jameel Warney||Stony Brook||So.||13||30.6||15.9||9.6||2.2||0.9||1.3||1.2||0.645||158|
|22||Jacob Parker||Stephen F. Austin||Jr.||12||29.6||16.1||7.0||1.7||1.4||0.4||1.0||0.656||157|
|24||Augustine Rubit||South Alabama||Sr.||12||28.7||17.8||9.8||1.4||0.7||0.8||2.0||0.562||157|
|25||Kendall Williams||New Mexico||Sr.||11||35.3||18.9||3.3||4.9||1.5||0.1||2.8||0.682||156|
It’s too early. Really. I’ve never ranked players before January – the results are SO noisy, and can change drastically over just a few games. Ratings are obviously more reliable the farther one gets into a season – and the larger the sample size gets.
But, I couldn’t help myself.
Few notes. First, I’ve tweaked the team ratings a little to best convert Sagarin to a form of TeamAdjustedOffensiveEfficiency/TeamAdjustedDefensiveEfficiency*100. What I was doing was good, but this is better. Won’t change historical results much, although maybe the top players ratings may come down a little – I’m really not sure until I impliment it on the past seasons.
Also, with Sagarin and the team ratings – I’m about certain he’s still using some built in pre-season bias in his team ratings (like 95% of the team ratings out there) – which makes the team results a little closer to the mean. This makes player results closer to the mean as well. As the season continues – and the ratings become unbiased (based SOLELY on this season) – great players from good/great conferences tend to rise up the rankings if they continue their quality play. The opposite is true for great players on teams from bad conferences (weak SoS) – they actually have to really improve their production as the season continues to offset the weakening SoS in order not to drop and get passed by the “big boys”.
I now get my data from BBState. Like EVERY data source I’ve ever dealt with, there are some errors over the 352 teams. I’ve found the vaste majority of the errors and corrected them (using cbb-reference, ESPN, or Statsheet). I’ll have to do this every time I update ratings, but I note the errors to make corrections easier for myself with future updates. I’m a stickler for having as clean a data set as possible, which makes auto updates impossible.
With all that – I ALWAYS find the results interesting.
There are about 8 youngsters (6 freshmen & 2 sophomores) that are pretty much hogging all the press in terms of current draft projections. Here’s how these 8 currenty rank nationally:
|34||Marcus Smart||Oklahoma State||30.0||18.0||4.4||3.8||2.8||0.7||3.0||0.570|
It’s interesting that at the moment Cauley-Stein actually barely ranks ahead of Randle. All these guys are the top players on their teams, except Wiggins is currently third behind obviously Embiid but also Perry Ellis (109th with a 141 rating) – and Aaron Gordon is actually 5th on a crazy loaded while crazy balanced Arizona team (5 players in the Top 150 nationally, 5 players in the Top 15 of the Pac 12). Aaron Gordon’s rating is actually a little lower than his McDonalds AA frosh teammate – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (125th with a 138 rating).
I’m excited to see how these rankings play out as the season progresses – hopefully the next update (next Monday? Maybe?) will be much easier for me than this initial one was.