Ranking the 2014 Draft Prospects by Projected Career WAR


I’ll probably be writing a ton about this the next 40 hours, but I have to get 6 hours sleep at the moment.  Like, in 5 minutes, I’m BARELY awake. Above is the link to an excel file ranking 45 players who projected – at some point in their career – to be above a replacement level player – broken down by each player year by year as well as career totals.  I had an initial list of 83 guys who had at least the smallest chance of being drafted – but 38 didn’t make the “replacement level” player cut – including notable possible lottery picks Hood & Lavine.  Suffice to say I think a team would be foolish to guarantee 3 years of good $$ to either of those guys – but I digress.

The ratings are based off weighted projections from their 2013 & 2014 college seasons (if they weren’t 1 & done).  The PJ Hairston’s (who played D league last season) projections are off his 12 & 13 season, since I haven’t yet devised my D-League to NBA model – one of my many future projects before the start of next season.

There is obviously absolutely no bias here – I didn’t try to shoe horn things in to try to get Andrew Wiggins into a top 3.  The results are the results, based off the players’ college ratings (adjusted for everything, broken down into 14 subsets), age, skillsets – and then using 19 years of past college to NBA ratings and 35 seasons of NBA age group to age group developement as a base for the year to year projections.

I’ll get more into detail on methodology tommorrow – and hopefully some other very cool stuff.  I dunno – maybe graphs, similarity scores, converting the ratings to general box score stats for the less analytical peeps, whatever I can put together in the very limited time before the draft.

Those who have been expecting this for a number of days – thanks for being patient, there were a few hiccups in compiling (SO MANY past college player stats to fix) as well as in the time I could devote that pushed back the release almost a week later than I wanted.  I wanted to create something different than the rest, and I think I have.  Enjoy, and check back in tommorrow & Thurday for more, as well as follow me on Twitter as I attempt my first time at live tweeting a big event.  I love the draft – should be fun.