I’ll be cranking out 16 write ups in a row here in a short amount of time. “Write ups” is probably the wrong phrase, since I won’t have much time to write.
What I will do is the same basic outline for each game. I will rank the players for each game according to Hoops Nerd Impact rating (HnI). This rating is a better predictor because it is the rating for a guy when he actually is available to play – as opposed to Hoops Nerd Rating (HnR – the base for the NCAA player rankings), which measure the season as a whole (missing games hurts the player in HnR, but it doesn’t for HnI).
I’ll project optimal lineup minutes – by which I’ll round up the mpg’s of the top HnI guys available to play to the next whole number (say, 26.3 would be 27) until I get to a team 200 minutes, and I’ll weight the final team HnI and all the statistical skillset breakdowns off of that.
I’ll use Ken Pomeroy’s projected point total for the game to project a point spread based off the compiled ratings of the optimal lineups. When I know a guy isn’t playing, I’ll point out how much the missing player impacted the projected point spread.
Anyway – even though I won’t write much – one should get a pretty good idea from the ratings I post who the best players are for the game – and what players are best at what skill. The compiled results of the player ratings will give us a realistic projected outcome – as well as highlight where the teams differ in terms of their statistical make up (how the teams compare in each facet of scoring, rebounding, ball handling, defensive stops, etc.). Remember, ALL these ratings have already been adjusted for pace, SoS, etc already – all the “noise” has been taken out the best we can.
Here’s an example of compiled rating breakdowns – just in terms of scoring:
|Average Tourney Player||56.3||-24.8||24.7||-4.7||28.8||-11.0||69.3|
|Average D1 Player||50.6||-23.9||21.9||-4.3||26.3||-11.0||59.6|
|% “better” Tourney/D1 Player||11.3||-3.7||12.9||-9.2||9.5||-0.5|
The average NCAA tourney guy is obviously much better than the average D1 guy – 11.3% more productive in terms of made twos, 12.9% more productive in made free throws, and 9.5% more productive in made threes. The average tourney guy gets a little more negative in missed twos and threes – he misses a little more while making alot more. The big negative (more misses) at the free throw line isn’t nearly as big as the positive (from the made FTs) – and both indicate just plain getting to the line MUCH more.
Notice when you add all the scoring ratings up – you get the overall scoring rating. Simple.
By the way, all that above are their RATINGS breakdowns – NOT straight stat averages. The ratings will show a much bigger difference than straight stat averages – since tourney players all year as a whole have played on good teams against better competition – giving their ratings more of a boost across the board than the average D1 player.
The average tourney player’s HnR/HnI is 117.4 (every team counted the same, despite varying games played), while the average D1 guy is 98.8. The average tourney team would beat an average D1 team, say, 76-64 (game of 140 points: 117.4/(117.4+98.8)*140).
Check in soon, I’ll be starting with game #1 (Ohio State vs. Dayton) – and continue by game start time until I finish game #16 (SDSU vs. NMSU).