NBA Draft Model

March 6th, 2016

Here’s a podcast I did with Coach Nick & Bballbreakdown about Draft Models.


June 25th, 2015 – Draft Day!

Posted a tidier article about the retrodictions. That is modeling the last 17 drafts.  Am trying to cram a bunch of interesting info in my latest  Draft Model spreadsheet – will be posting soon…..

Here’s the 2015 Draft Model spreadsheet – complete with seasonal projections, compiled career WAR projections, a graph of the top 18, and similarity scores:



June 18th, 2015

In case you missed it – retrodiction using my draft model on the last 17 NBA drafts – if you want to see how much the model rankings out perform actual NBA draft position.

My draft model below was added earlier this week to this very, very cool draft model consensus tool at tothemean.

That being said – that is not my final version for this season. I’ve made some adjustments to playing to projections, making them a little smoother. Also, since I have finished my retrodiction of the last 17 drafts and now have nicely worked out projections of 1031 past players with exact ages from their college careers – I can run similarity scores at a progression age point for any/all prospects to all players in my database. If I can work out the kinks and find a nice meld to my current model – I’ll have that incorporated into my model before the draft next week. I won’t do it unless I am about certain it improves the model – otherwise I’ll offer up similarity score results just for fun & further pondering just before the draft.


June 7th, 2015:

It’s that time of year again, projecting the NBA potential of college players. Daniel Frank of the APBRmetrics board and Draft Express are doing a series of articles about draft models – so when my write up is available there I’ll include a link here (6/9/15: here is that link).

Links to my draft model stuff from last season and related NBA career player projections can be found within the NBA Player Projection page. I decided to create this page for people to more easily find my NBA draft related work.

This season, to make it easier, I included about everything in one spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has FAQs that explains in general how my projections are derived. This spreadsheet ranks a specific set of 75 players that were picked by Daniel (based on mocks) for the Draft Express article. I added 7 others who projected better than a number of those 75. Enjoy.


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